Anticipating the Big One: Exploring the role of landscape architecture in preparing Wellington's CBD for a major earthquake

<p>“Risk of urban disasters is no longer a phenomenon that we can stop, avoid or deter, but rather they are part of complex ecological processes from which we are inseparable and must design with, in preparation for the next imminent disaster.” Miho Mazereeuw (Mazereeuw, 2011. Pg 85) Due to recent seismic activity across New Zealand, it has become widely speculated that Wellington is overdue for a major earthquake that could devastate the city. This has brought to light Wellington’s unique vulnerabilities and physical lack of preparedness to survive a significant natural disaster. Until recently, pre-disaster planning has looked towards both architectural and engineering solutions that focus on resisting or deterring the effects of a natural disaster, leaving landscape architecture as a post disaster clean up tool. This thesis aims to demonstrate the potential of landscape architecture within the field of pre-disaster planning, changing the way we adapt to natural disasters within the urban environment. This research will develop a preemptive strategy for Wellington’s Central Business District, or ‘CBD’ that utilises access ways and open space as emergency infrastructure to save lives in the event of a major earthquake, whilst enhancing the urban environment for day-to-day use. This research proposes that access ways and open space are the catalyst in which landscape architecture could make a significant contribution to the pre-disaster planning of cities. More specifically, it tests the combination of a latent emergency infrastructure with quality urban design through a series of landscape architecture experiments that focus on Wellington’s CBD as a site for design exploration. This exploration challenges the way in which we design our urban environments to allow a level of flexibility in times of distress or natural disaster. Overall this thesis will generate new ideas and creative solutions to the idea of urban resilience, indicating that, not only can landscape architecture make a significant contribution to pre-disaster planning, but that spaces designed for an emergency function can still enlighten our everyday experience of the city.</p>

Anticipating the Big One: Exploring the role of landscape architecture in preparing Wellington's CBD for a major earthquake

<p>“Risk of urban disasters is no longer a phenomenon that we can stop, avoid or deter, but rather they are part of complex ecological processes from which we are inseparable and must design with, in preparation for the next imminent disaster.” Miho Mazereeuw (Mazereeuw, 2011. Pg 85) Due to recent seismic activity across New Zealand, it has become widely speculated that Wellington is overdue for a major earthquake that could devastate the city. This has brought to light Wellington’s unique vulnerabilities and physical lack of preparedness to survive a significant natural disaster. Until recently, pre-disaster planning has looked towards both architectural and engineering solutions that focus on resisting or deterring the effects of a natural disaster, leaving landscape architecture as a post disaster clean up tool. This thesis aims to demonstrate the potential of landscape architecture within the field of pre-disaster planning, changing the way we adapt to natural disasters within the urban environment. This research will develop a preemptive strategy for Wellington’s Central Business District, or ‘CBD’ that utilises access ways and open space as emergency infrastructure to save lives in the event of a major earthquake, whilst enhancing the urban environment for day-to-day use. This research proposes that access ways and open space are the catalyst in which landscape architecture could make a significant contribution to the pre-disaster planning of cities. More specifically, it tests the combination of a latent emergency infrastructure with quality urban design through a series of landscape architecture experiments that focus on Wellington’s CBD as a site for design exploration. This exploration challenges the way in which we design our urban environments to allow a level of flexibility in times of distress or natural disaster. Overall this thesis will generate new ideas and creative solutions to the idea of urban resilience, indicating that, not only can landscape architecture make a significant contribution to pre-disaster planning, but that spaces designed for an emergency function can still enlighten our everyday experience of the city.</p>

Dominion

<p>FADE IN: New Zealand. 2020s. While Wellington has suffered a major earthquake and is on the way to recovery, Masterton is complete disintegration ...</p>

Dominion

<p>FADE IN: New Zealand. 2020s. While Wellington has suffered a major earthquake and is on the way to recovery, Masterton is complete disintegration ...</p>

Demographic and Psychological Factors and Preparation for Earthquakes

<p>New Zealand, like many countries, is at risk from a number of natural disasters including flooding, volcanoes, and earthquakes. The risk of exposure to such disasters over the course of a lifetime is substantial (Norris, 1992). Despite this, many New Zealanders are unprepared for the consequences of a natural disaster; nearly a quarter of New Zealand homes have flaws which could see them seriously damaged or detached from their foundations in a major earthquake (Ansell & Taber, 1996). Recent research suggests that psychological variables contribute to people's lack of preparation for natural disasters. A limitation, however, of much of this research has been the lack of attention paid to the psychometric quality of the instruments used to measure key constructs. The present investigation aimed to examine the relationships between different dimensions of personality and earthquake preparation in a large sample of Wellington residents using psychometrically sound measures. Measures of locus of control, risk, and earthquake preparation were first evaluated in a series of studies using both university students and Wellington residents. These questionnaires were then administered, along with items pertaining to the construct of unrealistic optimism, to a total of 358 Wellington residents. The results showed that locus of control, risk precaution, home ownership, and length of residence were significant predictors of earthquake preparation. Moreover, people exhibited evidence of unrealistic optimism, as demonstrated by both a belief that they were better prepared for a major earthquake than an acquaintance, or other Wellingtonians, and by a belief that they were personally less likely than others to suffer injury in a major earthquake. The implications of these results for emergency managers are discussed and several recommendations are made.</p>

Demographic and Psychological Factors and Preparation for Earthquakes

<p>New Zealand, like many countries, is at risk from a number of natural disasters including flooding, volcanoes, and earthquakes. The risk of exposure to such disasters over the course of a lifetime is substantial (Norris, 1992). Despite this, many New Zealanders are unprepared for the consequences of a natural disaster; nearly a quarter of New Zealand homes have flaws which could see them seriously damaged or detached from their foundations in a major earthquake (Ansell & Taber, 1996). Recent research suggests that psychological variables contribute to people's lack of preparation for natural disasters. A limitation, however, of much of this research has been the lack of attention paid to the psychometric quality of the instruments used to measure key constructs. The present investigation aimed to examine the relationships between different dimensions of personality and earthquake preparation in a large sample of Wellington residents using psychometrically sound measures. Measures of locus of control, risk, and earthquake preparation were first evaluated in a series of studies using both university students and Wellington residents. These questionnaires were then administered, along with items pertaining to the construct of unrealistic optimism, to a total of 358 Wellington residents. The results showed that locus of control, risk precaution, home ownership, and length of residence were significant predictors of earthquake preparation. Moreover, people exhibited evidence of unrealistic optimism, as demonstrated by both a belief that they were better prepared for a major earthquake than an acquaintance, or other Wellingtonians, and by a belief that they were personally less likely than others to suffer injury in a major earthquake. The implications of these results for emergency managers are discussed and several recommendations are made.</p>

Relocation of public healthcare network of a large city in the event of a major earthquake: a combined methodological analysis

PurposeThe aim of this research is to improve the responsiveness of the healthcare network of a large city to a major earthquake, by applying a combined methodology to reduce human suffering and death.Design/methodology/approachScenario analysis, a non-linear programming (NLP) model, and the analytical network process are sequentially applied to find the “best location pattern”.FindingsWhen considering the occurrence of major earthquakes in cities with high population density, as a rule of thumb, the location of healthcare facilities should prioritize areas characteristically overcrowded and/or that were built based on poor standards of seismic resistance.Research limitations/implicationsThe proposed research design does not include a cost criterion in the set of decision variables involved. Furthermore, the results derived from the NLP-model are restricted by the input simulation data.Practical implicationsThe performance of the “best location pattern” is compared with the current location of healthcare facilities in terms of their distances to the affected zones. Metropolis areas worldwide with similar conditions to the city under consideration could be benefited from applying the general methodology for relocation of healthcare facilities described in this research.Originality/valueThis research implements a diverse combination of methodologies to examine the problem of relocating of healthcare facilities in a large city in the wake of an assumed earthquake. In addition, to the best of authors' knowledge, this is the first study of its kind that proposes improvements in the responsiveness of the healthcare facilities' network in the city in question.

A near-real-time model for estimating probability of road obstruction due to earthquake-triggered landslides

Coseismic landslides are a major source of transportation disruption in mountainous areas, but few approaches exist for rapidly estimating impacts to road networks. We develop a model that links the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) near-real-time earthquake-triggered landslide hazard model with Open Street Map (OSM) road network data to rapidly estimate segment-level obstruction risk following major earthquake activity worldwide. To train and validate the model, we process OSM data for 15 historical earthquakes and calculate the average segment-level landslide hazard from the USGS model for each event. We then fit a multivariate adaptive regression spline model for the probability of road obstruction as a function of road segment length and landslide hazard, using a training and validation dataset derived from the intersections of road networks with earthquake-triggered landslide inventories. The resulting probabilistic model is well calibrated across a range of earthquake events, with estimated obstruction probabilities matching the relative frequency of potential road obstructions. The model runs quickly and is capable of producing road segment-level obstruction estimates within minutes to hours of a major earthquake. However, in near-real-time application, the accuracy of the obstruction estimates will be dependent on the quality of the ShakeMap shaking estimates, which often improves with time as more information becomes available after the earthquake. By providing a rapid first-order translation of landslide hazard into potential infrastructure impacts, this model helps provide emergency responders with tangible information on initial areas of concern.