Probability of Ship High-Runs from Phase-Space Data

A clustering scheme has been applied for capturing qualitatively different surge motion patterns in the phase space. The scheme enables the identification of "high-run" incidents as soon as such motions are triggered and while their phenomenology has not yet been well developed. A "high run" is a surf-riding-like behavior, appearing in irregular following seas. The concept of finite-time coherent sets is exploited for deriving estimates of the probability of high-runs. The method is verified by identifying independently the corresponding hyperbolic Lagrangian coherent structures; then, consistency is sought between the two approaches. An important feature of the method is that it does not rely on the use of some empirical criterion for the high-run threshold, such as one based on the exceedance of an arbitrary high-speed level. Despite its computational burden, the proposed scheme offers "objective" statistical information on a ship's high-run tendency that can be used for benchmarking simpler (approximative) probability calculation schemes. 1. Introduction Current efforts to assess a ship's tendency for abnormal behavior in extreme seas are still limited from our inadequate grasp of the full variety of nonlinear ship motion phenomena that could be realized in an irregular seaway. A classification of these motion patterns would provide a sound basis for developing probabilistic calculation methods of ship operability and safety in extreme seas. A few recent research efforts in our group have been related to this target. In one case, it was endeavored to distinguish ship high-runs from ordinary surging, by engaging the concept of instantaneous wave celerity (Spyrou et al. 2014). In another, the derivation of a practical metric for the probability of high-run was pursued (Belenky et al. 2016). Also, high-run and broaching-to statistics were produced through a direct approach based on assigning prescriptive exceedance thresholds (Spyrou et al. 2016b). Moreover, the theory of surf-riding was extended for bichromatic waves, revealing some rather unexpected types of motion (Spyrou et al. 2018). Even richer phenomena could be conjectured for a multifrequency environment.

Experimental Study on a Relation Between Nonlinear Hydrodynamic Forces and Wave-Induced Ship Motions

Nowadays, in maritime industries, container ships increase in size and they have large flares, which may induce nonlinear wave loads in large-amplitude waves. It is also well known that hydrodynamic forces acting on a ship and resulting ship motions show nonlinearities at some range of wave frequencies. Therefore, we should investigate not only correct estimation of wave loads and ship motions, but also nonlinear ship-motion characteristics in large-amplitude waves. However, it is not that clear which nonlinear hydrodynamic force terms are dominating for the nonlinearity in the ship motions. Although the linear equations of motion have been used, they should be modified to incorporate at least the most important nonlinear hydrodynamic forces and to establish a practical calculation method taking account of only the indispensable nonlinear terms. In this research, we did extensive experimental measurement of hydrodynamic forces and wave-induced ship motions, with which we aim to understand what are practically important nonlinear terms, and to derive practical nonlinear ship motion equations through numerical computation and comparison with experimental data.

Accounting for Nonlinear Ship Motion in Navigational al Support of Submarine Ballistic Missile Launches

The paper attempts to solve the problem of determining initial conditions in terms of submarine ballistic missile velocity by means of an optimum Wiener filter. We provide solutions for known and proposed empirical models of nonlinear ship motion. We show that for a generic pre-launch sequence it is possible to considerably increase the accuracy of solving the initial velocity determination problem by exploiting the proposed model of modified nonlinear ship motion