International experience of long-term budget projections: national and subnational levels

The subject of the research is the approaches used in foreign experience in the formation of forecasts of budget parameters for the long term. The study aims to determine the quality criteria for national and regional long-term budget projections based on the best practice of developed countries. In foreign practice, the question of choosing preferable solutions for long-term budget projections remains open. In Russian studies, some of the above issues are highlighted as of the first decade of the 2000s and require updating, and the foreign regional experience on the use of the longterm budget forecasting lacks detailed analyses. This substantiates the relevance of this study. The novelty consists in highlighting the list of “best practices” in implementing long-term fiscal projection for the national and subnational levels based on the study of the experience of foreign countries. To achieve this goal, the author uses methods of a comparative analysis of international experience in building budget forecasts, system analysis, and analogy. As a result, a list of criteria that meet the good practices of developing long-term budget forecasts has been formed. It is proposed to determine the forecasting horizon within 30–50 years, generate forecasts annually or with a specified frequency if there is a mechanism for updating them. The authors conclude that developing forecasts on a scenario basis using the principle of continuity in relation to the estimates obtained and forecasting methodology, as well as assessing the sensitivity of budget parameters to exogenous factors and budget sustainability are necessary characteristics of longterm budget projections. Prospects for the study consist in studying methodological solutions for forecasting budget parameters and developing tools for the regions of the Russian Federation for calculating indicators of long-term budget projections.

Regional Government Revenue Forecasting: Risk Factors of Investment Financing

Accurate revenue prediction is a key factor for the reliable determination of the investment part of entire regional and local budgets, particularly during economic downturns and fiscal uncertainty. An unexpected decline in revenue requires the reduction in capital expenditures and forces the regional government to find additional sources to close the budget gaps. Current studies indicate that budget forecasts often underpredict revenue and use the available information inefficiently. In this article, the authors examine chosen methods of forecasting regional government revenue. In addition to classical forecasting models based on time series and causal models, an original structural forecasting procedure was proposed, which is effective especially in case of data delay. The reliability of applied methods was assessed using data from the Polish area of Zachodniopomorskie over the period 2000–2018. The found evidence supported results that were obtained by many other researchers, which indicated that less comprehensive methods of forecasting can provide reasonably accurate estimates.

Integral Tax Collection Index as a New Approach to Assessing Tax Administration

Budget mobilization and improvements in the quality of tax administration are always among the top priorities for fiscal authorities. During periods of instability the role of tax compliance and budget execution increases even more. Times like these require quick analysis and adaptation of the tax system to changing economic conditions, and do not always allow conventional scientific approaches to be used in the analysis of tax collection. Fiscal authorities are faced with the need to create relatively simple tools for assessing that would allow one to analyze revenues with a minimum set of data and to assess the efficiency of the tax authorities taking into account changes in the macroeconomic environment. The integral index of collection presented in this work can help solve this problem. The essence of the approach is to analyze the coherence of two dynamics: actual tax receipts and their proxy tax base. The methodical advantages of the proposed indicator are its relative simplicity and versatility. It is applicable for most of the tax and non-tax payments and can be used both independently and in conjunction with other indicators of tax collection completeness. The above makes the index a convenient tool for quick analysis at different stages of the budget process—it can be useful not only for ex-post understanding of trends in budget revenues execution and tax administration dynamics, but also for improving the accuracy of budget forecasts ex-ante.

PROBLEMS OF MAKING LONG-TERM BUDGET FORECASTS AT THE MUNICIPAL LEVEL

The article presents the results of a review of long-term budget forecasts made by local self-government au-thorities of urban districts. Based on the analysis, the shortcomings and problems of the current practice of budget forecasting are defined. The factors that prevent the full use of the results of long-term forecasting in the budget process are defined

Virus second wave will derail Greek budget forecasts

Significance The official baseline is for an 8.2% GDP contraction in 2020, and a 7.5% rebound in 2021. It took into account moderate restrictions on movement in winter 2020/21, but the COVID-19 pandemic's second wave is likely to have a more severe impact on the economy than initially hoped, increasing the risk of missed fiscal targets in 2021. Impacts Structural weaknesses (high government debt, high unemployment and low investment) will undermine sustained recovery beyond 2021. Banks' non-performing loan reduction targets (from EUR60bn in 2020 to EUR34bn in 2021) could be missed in a recessionary environment. Greece's return to the path of fiscal sustainability will be delayed until 2022 at least.

Argentina budget forecasts will again not be met

Headline ARGENTINA: Budget forecasts will again not be met

Early Argentine budget forecasts seem optimistic

Headline ARGENTINA: Early budget forecasts seem optimistic

African oil and gas outlook may prove subdued

Subject Oil and gas outlook for Africa. Significance BP and Kosmos Energy on December 21 gave the go-ahead for their landmark Greater Tortue Ahmeyim floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) development on the maritime border between Mauritania and Senegal. However, wider hopes of an upturn in West African oil and gas exploration have been tempered by recent oil price fluctuations and disappointing well results. Impacts Several oil exporters may have to revise 2019 budget forecasts to take account of a lower oil price. The industry will operate more cautiously in the lower price environment, with more ambitious drilling programmes deferred. Companies will take account of greater corporate transparency requirements, including open licensing rounds and institutional reforms.

Quantificação dos Planos Estratégicos Através do Orçamento Empresarial: uma Aplicação Prática com Métodos Estocásticos

Traditionally, the process of estimating the quantitative predictions of the strategic plan through the budget happens as from the deterministic data, together with analysis of factors of internal and external environments. As from the budget data decisions are made, often before the fact, which creates uncertainty as to the assertiveness of forecasts. Combined with the traditional preparation methods of corporate budget forecasts, this study presents an application of stochastic methods where the probabilism is presented as an alternative for the minimization of uncertainties related to the assertiveness of the estimates. It also demonstrates itself, as from a practical application, the use of the Monte Carlo method in the sales forecasting; at the same time it is tested the probability of these sales forecasting be materialized within certain intervals that meet the investors’ expectations, by using the limit central theorem and, finally, by using the absorbing Markov chain, it is demonstrated the overall performance of the system as from the funds input and output. The study was limited to a basic application of stochastic methods as from a hypothetical case which, however, allowed to conclude that both methods, together or separately, can minimize the effects of uncertainty in budget forecasts.