US-South-east Asia security ties face some tests

Significance The ADMM-Plus is primarily a confidence-building forum, but Esper will need to navigate various issues that will affect US security relations in South-east Asia for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s current term. Impacts The forthcoming US election could further diminish Trump’s attention towards multilateral meetings. US defence ties with Singapore and Vietnam will grow more easily than with Thailand and the Philippines. US counterterrorism cooperation with South-east Asian states will likely grow.

US Jerusalem move could risk South-east Asia security

Significance All but one of the ASEAN governments voted in favour of the resolution; the Philippines abstained. South-east Asian leaders are attempting to walk a difficult line, seeking to maintain good relations with the Trump administration while upholding their longstanding support for a two-state solution regarding Israel and the Palestinians. Impacts Opposition to the US announcement on Jerusalem could see further boycotts of US businesses in South-east Asia. As ASEAN chair, Singapore will discourage a group statement criticising Washington over Jerusalem. The Jerusalem decision will heighten domestic opposition to any trade deals ASEAN governments may seek with Washington.

Alarm will subside over US East Asia security policy

Headline EAST ASIA: Alarm will subside over US security policy

South-east Asia security cooperation faces May test

Significance This follows a recent spike in ASG activity with the discovery on April 25 of a severed head believed to belong to a Canadian kidnapped by ASG last year and an April 9 clash between the Philippines military (AFP) and ASG. Impacts A Rodrigo Duterte presidency has the best prospects for advancing the Philippines peace process. Local Sulu shipping disruptions are likely, and could strain Mindanao's power supply. The ASG risk to the Philippines overall economy is negligible, but local tourism will suffer in Mindanao.