South-east Asia security cooperation faces May test
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Significance This follows a recent spike in ASG activity with the discovery on April 25 of a severed head believed to belong to a Canadian kidnapped by ASG last year and an April 9 clash between the Philippines military (AFP) and ASG. Impacts A Rodrigo Duterte presidency has the best prospects for advancing the Philippines peace process. Local Sulu shipping disruptions are likely, and could strain Mindanao's power supply. The ASG risk to the Philippines overall economy is negligible, but local tourism will suffer in Mindanao.
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