THE TRANSFORMATION OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AT THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM DURING THE 1960S

In this paper, we build on data on officials of the Federal Reserve System, oral history repositories, and hitherto underresearched archival sources to unpack the tortuous path toward crafting an institutional and intellectual space for postwar economic analysis within the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. We show that growing attention to new macroeconomic research was a reaction to both mounting external criticisms against the Fed’s decision-making process and the spread of new macroeconomic theories and econometric techniques. We argue that the rise of the number of PhD economists working at the Fed is a symptom rather than a cause of this transformation. Key to our story are a handful of economists from the Board of Governors’ Division of Research and Statistics (DRS) who did not hold a PhD but envisioned their role as going beyond mere data accumulation and got involved in large-scale macroeconometric model building. We conclude that the divide between PhD and non-PhD economists may not be fully relevant to understand both the shift in the type of economics practiced at the Fed and the uses of this knowledge in the decision-making process. Equally important was the rift between different styles of economic analysis.

THE TRANSFORMATION OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AT THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM DURING THE 1960S

In this paper, we build on data on officials of the Federal Reserve System, oral history repositories, and hitherto under-researched archival sources to unpack the tortuous path toward crafting an institutional and intellectual space for postwar economic analysis within the Board of Governors. We show that growing attention to new macroeconomic research was a reaction to both mounting external criticisms against the Fed’s decision-making process, and to the spread of new macroeconomic theories and econometric techniques. We argue that the rise of the number of PhD economists working at the Fed is a symptom rather than a cause of this transformation. Key to our story are a handful of economists from the Board of Governors’ Division of Research and Statistics (DRS) who did not hold a PhD but envisioned their role as going beyond mere data accumulation and got involved in large-scale macroeconometric model building. We conclude that the divide between PhD and non-PhD economists may not be fully relevant to understand both the shift in the typeof economics practiced at the Fed and the uses of this knowledge in the decision making-process. Equally important was the rift between different styles of economicanalysis.

Analisis Kemampuan BI7dRR, Fed Rate dan Inflasi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan

Penelitian ini mempunyai tujuan untuk menguji apakah terdapat pengaruh dari suku bunga acuan, Fed Rate, serta tingkat inflasi terhadap indeks saham Indonesia. Adapun periode atau waktu penelitian diambil melalui publikasi data pergerakan saham, tingkat inflasi dan suku bunga pada Januari 2017-April 2020. Desain dari penelitian ini memiliki desain dengan pendekatan kuantitatif yakni dengan model analisis regresi berganda yang datanya diubah ke dalam bentuk first differency dan diuji menggunakan uji asumsi klasik terlebih dahulu kemudian dilakukan uji statistik terhadap data yang diperoleh. Adapun data-data penelitian ini berupa time horizon atau disebut juga data time series yang adalah data sekunder yakni berasal dari sumber-sumber laporan yang diterbitkan oleh Bank Indonesia atas data BI7dRR dan tingkat inflasi serta data tingkat Fed Rate yang diterbitkan oleh Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa BI7dRR tidak memiliki pengaruh tetapi positif terhadap IHSG sedangkan Fed Rate memiliki pengaruh positif signifikan terhadap pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG), serta inflasi memiliki tidak memiliki pengaruh tetapi positif terhadap pergerakan IHSG.

CHALLENGES OF DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANTI-CRISIS STRATEGY TO OVERCOME THE CORONOVIRUS PANDEMIC AND ITS CONSEQUENCES

The article examines the views of Western researchers on overcoming the COVID-19 crisis and its consequences. The main focus is on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve system - the most developed financial system that affects both the US economy and global markets.