Econometric modelling in Italy: From economic planning to academic research

The paper deals with the introduction and acceptance of econometric model-ling as a tool to conduct economic policy analysis in Italy in the Post War. A re-search practice first applied in public and private institutions other than universi-ties. It is argued that economic planning and policymakers' needs of empirical es-timations, simulations and forecasts played an important role in supporting quan-titative research, at the time when economics was still conceived as a theoretical discipline. Sylos Labini's (1967) econometric model, the Modellaccio (1970-75), the University of Bologna model (1976) were the first examples of econometric modelling activities within academia. Only since the late 1980s, also due to a gen-erational change, econometrics is fully accepted and introduced in economics cur-ricula with the discipline that aligned to international standards.

Structural Changes in the Market of Bank Deposits of Households in Ukraine

The purpose of the article is to identify the main factors that cause the structural changes in the market of bank deposits of households by regions of Ukraine. This is based on evaluating the spatial asymmetries in this market development in 2009–2018 by regions of Ukraine and identifying the factors that influences its structure by gross regional product (GRP) by means of the methodology of multivariate econometric modelling. Methodology. The following scientific methods are used: analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparative analysis and econometric modelling. The scope and coefficients of variation for such indicators as the share of household bank deposits by GRP, the volume of household bank deposits per capita, the structure of household bank deposits by terms in general, in national and foreign currencies are calculated. Determining the main factors for multiple regression equations influencing structural changes in the market of household bank deposits by GRP is based on the methodology of stepwise regression. Results of the research. The spatial peculiarities of household bank deposits development in Ukraine was analysed and the reduction of its capacity was revealed due to the unfavourable socio-economic situation, the reform of the banking system and the influence of geopolitical factors. Based on the assessment of variation indicators dynamics, it was found that this market is characterised by regional asymmetries in terms of types of currencies and placement of household deposits. Regression-correlation equations were built, in which the shares of household deposits by regions of Ukraine (Y1, % GRP), in national currency (Y2, % GRP) and foreign currency (Y3, % GRP) are selected as dependent variables. The following measures are proposed to achieve positive changes in the market of household bank deposits in Ukraine: reducing unemployment; creation of favourable conditions for increasing the average monthly salary in the regions and modifying household spending to make savings; formation of an appropriate interest rate policy aimed at actively attracting temporarily available funds of the population to commercial banks.

Autocratisation by Term Limits Manipulation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Besides the introduction of multi-party elections, the sub-Saharan wave of democratic reforms of the 1990s encompassed the introduction of limits to the number of terms that a chief executive can serve. Executive term limits (ETLs) are key for democracy to advance in a continent with a legacy of personal rule. However, the manipulation of ETLs has become a recurring mode of autocratisation, through which African aspiring over-stayers weaken executive constraints, taint political competition, and limit citizens’ possibility to choose who governs. This article presents a three-phase model of autocratisation by ETL manipulation and, using new data, offers one of the first regional comparative studies of ETL manipulation in sub-Saharan Africa that rests on econometric modelling. The analysis leads to revisiting some previous findings on the drivers of ETL manipulation and highlights the relevance of other previously underestimated factors that may either discourage a leader from challenging ETLs or prevent their successful manipulation.