The “black box” of the interest rate channel of monetary policy

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-21
Author(s):  
S. R. Moiseev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
General Terms ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

In the economic literature authors believe that central banks manage long-term interest rates on loans through the short-term money market interest rate in order to maintain price stability and balanced economic growth. However, macroeconomic theory tells extremely sparingly about the interest rate channel of monetary policy. In general terms, it conducts changes through a term premium and expectations in the government securities market. In applied research, economists only observe the final reaction of lending rates to the non-financial sector. Economists traditionally believe that the interest rate channel requires a developed financial sector. In some cases, in particular, at zero rates or in a small open economy that depends on the exchange rate, the interest rate channel works poorly. However, its effectiveness can be maintained without developed financial markets. The answer is the pricing of banking loans.

scholarly journals Analysis of Macroeconomics Stability Control of ICI Countries (Indonesia, China, India) Based on Transmission of Monetary Policy through Interest Rate Channel

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 226-234
Author(s):  
Annisa Anggreini Siswanto ◽  
Ahmad Albar Tanjung ◽  
Irsad Lubis
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

This study aims to analyze variable control of macroeconomic stability based on monetary policy transmission through interest rate channels in Indonesia, China, India (ICI). Variables used in the interest rate are rill interest rates, consumption, investment, gross domestic product, and inflation. This study used secondary data from 2000 to 2019. The results of the PVECM analysis through the interest rate channel show that the control of economic stability of the ICI country is carried out by investment variables and gross domestic product in the short term, while in the long run it is carried out by consumption, investment and gross domestic product. The results of the IRF analysis are the response stability of all variables is formed in the medium and long term periods. The results of the FEVD analysis show that there are variables that have the greatest contribution in the variable itself either in the short, medium, long term. The results of the interaction analysis of each variable transmission of monetary policy through interest rates can maintain and control the economic stability of the ICI country. Keywords: Interest Rate Channel, Interest Rate, Consumption, Investment, Gross Domestic Product, Inflation.

scholarly journals Fluctuations in the Swiss Franc: What Has Changed Since the Euro's Introduction?

2002 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas M. Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Swiss Franc ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Shed Light

The monetary implications arising from EMU for Swiss monetary policy show up primarily in the exchange rate. As of yet, fluctuations in the Swiss franc against the euro have been surprisingly moderate. The Swiss franc has thus tracked the euro's decline against the US dollar without experiencing strong inflationary pressures and a convergence in the interest-rate differential: a paradoxical result for a small open economy. This paper examines critically whether the recent record reveals information about a change in SNB monetary policy. It also attempts to shed light on the SNB's ability to implement an independent monetary policy with the new landscape defined by EMU. Four hypotheses of euro tracking are considered.

scholarly journals Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy: Case Study of Interest Rate Channel in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Prakash Anant Salvi ◽  
Davinder Kaur Suri
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

In India, prior to 1991, the tightly controlled interest rates caused impediments in the functioning of the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission while after 1991, the RBI undertook various measures to strengthen the market-determination of interest rates. This paper has examined the evolution of the interest channel in India across the period 1985 to 2014 firstly by studying the interest rate pass-through using the Correlation matrix and the OLS technique and secondly, by studying the transmission of policy rates to the real economy using the reduced VAR model. The results show that the transmission of interest rates pass-through from policy rates to market interest rates (both - short-term as well as long-term) has strengthened while desired impact of long term market interest rates on industrial production and inflation appears to be weak.

scholarly journals SUATU PENDEKATAN MONETER TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI PADA PEREKONOMIAN TERBUKA KECIL DENGAN KONTROL MODAL: STUDI KASUS INDONESIA 2010.1-2014.12

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Aris Soelistyo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
The Interest Rate

The purpose of this study is to formulate the monetary model of the economic growth in a small open economy (small open economy) with a free exchange rate system (flexible exchange rate system) and capital mobility is not perfect (imperfect capital mobility), as well as the factors that influence economic growth, exchange rates and interest rates with monetary approach (mathematically and empirically).This study uses a structural analysis approach to vector autoregresion with monthly data Indonesia in 2010-2014. The empirical results reveal that changes in the money supply is a significant negative effect on economic growth 0.1008 Indonesia. Moreover, economic growth is affected by the magnitude of the previous period of economic growth significantly by 0.391825, where the magnitude of the effect is determined by the strength of the exchange rate in response to changes in interest rates Indonesia, the greater the exchange rate response to changes in interest rates, the weakening influence of the period of economic growth prior to economic growth. For a small open economy (small open economy) with a free exchange rate system (flexible exchange rate system), then the value of the rupiah per dollar exchange rate is influenced significantly by the amount of money in circulation (0.063318), the exchange rate value of the last period (0.746), and the interest rate the previous period (0.3424), the interest rate two previous periods (-0.305848).For situations of capital mobility is not perfect, then the variable interest rate is treated as endogenous variables, the empirical results show that the level of BI rate significantly influenced only by the BI rate the previous month (1.4526) and the interest rate of the previous two months (0.524) 

scholarly journals Monetary Conditions Index: A Composite Measure of Monetary Policy in Pakistan

2002 ◽  
Vol 41 (4II) ◽  
pp. 551-566 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Qayyum
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rate Effects ◽  
The Interest Rate

Accurate measures of the size and direction of changes in monetary policy are very important. A number of variables/indicators have been used as a measure of the stance of monetary policy the world over. These include growth rates of monetary aggregates and credit aggregates, short-term interest rate as used by Sims (1992), index of minutes of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as suggested by Friedman and Schwartz (1963) and reintroduced by Romer and Romer (1989), monetary policy index constructed by employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimation technique with prior information from Central Bank such as Bernanke and Blinder (1992) and Bernanke and Mihov (1998), and Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)—which is the focus of this paper—constructed by and used by Bank of Canada [Freedman (1995)], taking into consideration the interest rate and exchange rate channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a small open economy. In case of open economy it is assumed that the monetary policy affects the economy and the prime objective of monetary policy, rate of inflation, through two important transmission mechanisms. These transmission channels are; interest rate channel and exchange rate channel. The working of the first channel is that the interest rate influences the level of expenditures, investment and subsequently domestic demand. The change in official interest rate effects the market rates of interest both short term as well as long term interest rates. This change in market rates of interest is transmitted to the bank lending rates and saving rates. The change in saving rate effects the spending behaviour of individuals (consumption) whereas the change in bank lending rate effects the investment behaviour of firms (investment). The change in aggregate consumption and investment has direct link to the gross domestic product (GDP).

The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

2015 ◽  
pp. 20-40
Author(s):  
Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

scholarly journals Safe Assets, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierpaolo Benigno ◽  
Salvatore Nisticò
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Multiple Assets ◽  
Interest Rate Spreads ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Liquidity Shock ◽  
Deep Recession

This paper studies monetary policy in models where multiple assets have different liquidity properties: safe and “pseudo-safe” assets coexist. A shock worsening the liquidity properties of the pseudo-safe assets raises interest rate spreads and can cause a deep recession-cum-deflation. Expanding the central bank’s balance sheet fills the shortage of safe assets and counteracts the recession. Lowering the interest rate on reserves insulates market interest rates from the liquidity shock and improves risk sharing between borrowers and savers. (JEL E31, E32, E43, E44, E52)

scholarly journals “WAIT-AND-SEE” MONETARY POLICY

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1793-1814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaowen Lei ◽  
Michael C. Tseng
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Bank Of Canada ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Better Than

This paper develops a model of the optimal timing of interest rate changes. With fixed adjustment costs and ongoing uncertainty, changing the interest rate involves the exercise of an option. Optimal policy therefore has a “wait-and-see” component, which can be quantified using option pricing techniques. We show that increased uncertainty makes the central bank more reluctant to change its target interest rate, and argue that this helps explain recent observed deviations from the Taylor Rule. An optimal wait-and-see policy fits the target interest rates of the Fed and Bank of Canada better than the Taylor Rule.

scholarly journals Interest rates and prices causality in the Czech Republic – Granger approach

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (No. 7) ◽  
pp. 347-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Poměnková ◽  
S. Kapounek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The Interest Rate

Monetary policy analysis concerns both the assumptions of the transmission mechanism and the direction of causality between the nominal (i.e. the money) and real economy. The traditional channel of monetary policy implementation works via the interest rate changes and their impact on the investment activity and the aggregate demand. Altering the relationship between the aggregate demand and supply then impacts the general price level and hence inflation. Alternatively, the Post-Keynesians postulate money as a residual. In their approach, banks credit in response to the movements in investment activities and demand for money. In this paper, the authors use the VAR (i.e. the vector autoregressive) approach applied to the “Taylor Rule” concept to identify the mechanism and impact of the monetary policy in the small open post-transformation economy of the Czech Republic. The causality (in the Granger sense) between the interest rate and prices in the Czech Republic is then identified. The two alternative modelling approaches are tested. First, there is the standard VAR analysis with the lagged values of interest rate, inflation and economic growth as explanatory variables. This model shows one way causality (in the Granger sense) between the inflation rate and interest rate (i.e. the inflation rate is (Granger) caused by the lagged interest rate). Secondly, the lead (instead of lagged) values of the interest rate, inflation rate and real exchange rate are used. This estimate shows one way causality between the inflation rate and interest rate in the sense that interest rate is caused by the lead (i.e. the expected future) inflation rate. The assumptions based on money as a residual of the economic process were rejected in both models.

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