<p></p><p> The prediction of host-guest binding
affinities with computational modelling is still a challenging task. In the 7<sup>th</sup>
statistical assessment of the modeling of proteins and ligands (SAMPL)
challenge, a new host named TrimerTrip was synthesized and the thermodynamic
parameters of 16 structurally diverse guests binding to the host were
characterized. In the TrimerTrip-guest challenge, only structures of the host
and the guests are provided, which indicates that the predictions of both the
binding poses and the binding affinities are under assessment. In this work,
starting from the binding poses obtained from our previous enhanced sampling
simulations in the configurational space, we perform extensive alchemical and
end-point free energy calculations to calculate the host-guest binding
affinities retrospectively. The alchemical predictions with two widely accepted
charge schemes (i.e. AM1-BCC and RESP) are in good agreement with the
experimental reference, while the end-point estimates perform poorly in
reproducing the experimental binding affinities. Aside from the absolute value
of the binding affinity, the rank of binding free energies is also crucial in
drug design. Surprisingly, the end-point MM/PBSA method seems very powerful in
reproducing the experimental rank of binding affinities. Although the length of
our simulations is long and the intermediate spacing is dense, the convergence
behavior is not very good, which may arise from the flexibility of the host
molecule. Enhanced sampling techniques in the configurational space may be
required to obtain fully converged sampling. Further, as the length of sampling
in alchemical free energy calculations already achieves several hundred ns,
performing direct simulations of the binding/unbinding event in the physical
space could be more useful and insightful. More details about the binding
pathway and mechanism could be obtained in this way. The nonequilibrium method
could also be a nice choice if one insists to use the alchemical method, as the
intermediate sampling is avoided to some extent. </p><p></p>