Social media and bitcoin metrics: which words matter

We develop a new Data-Driven Phasic Word Identification (DDPWI) methodology to determine which words matter as the bitcoin pricing dynamic changes from one phase to another. With Google search volumes as a baseline, we find that Reddit submissions are both correlated with Google and have a comparable relationship with a variety of bitcoin metrics, using Spearman’s rho. Reddit provides complete access to the text of submissions. Rather than associating sentiment with market activity, we describe the DDPWI method for finding specific ‘price dynamic’ words associated with changes in the bitcoin pricing pattern through 2017 and 2018. We assess the significance of these changes using Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Tests with Bonferroni corrections. These price dynamic words are used to pull out associated words in the submissions thereby providing the context to their use. For example, the price dynamic word ‘ban’, which became significantly higher in frequency as prices fell, occurred in the context of both government regulation and internet companies banning cryptocurrency adverts. This approach could be used more generally to look at social media and discussion forums at a granular level identifying specific words that impact the metric under investigation rather than overall sentiment.

Evolutionary Analysis of a Three-Dimensional Carbon Price Dynamic System

The carbon market is the least-cost tool to reduce carbon emissions. This study explores the evolution of the carbon price in the carbon market from a dynamic system perspective. A three-dimensional carbon price dynamic system is established to quantify the interactions among the carbon price, energy price, and economic growth. The system built in this study presents various dynamic characteristics including chaotic attractors and stable equilibria. Specifically, the existence of chaos in the system is verified by Lyapunov exponents spectrum and bifurcation diagram. In contrast, the system tends to be stable in the case of China after identifying the system parameters through the genetic algorithm. Furthermore, evolutionary trends of the carbon price are analyzed when the system parameters are perturbed. The results show that the carbon price is positively correlated with energy price as well as energy price policy. Besides, the level of the carbon price is negatively correlated with government control in the short term and positively correlated in the long term. This study can help analyze trends in the carbon price in the mid-term to long-term.