An Empirical Examination of Representational Equity in Consolidated Governments, 1965-2002

Research on the impacts of city-county consolidation often focus on issues relating to efficiency, effectiveness, and economic development; yet, relatively few studies have addressed the issue of racial and ethnic minority representation. While existing research is limited, findings indicate that consolidating city and county governments dilutes minority voting strength and has a disparate impact on minority representation. However, it is not clear if this is a nationwide trend, particularly in preclearance states previously covered by the Voting Rights Act. Thus, the question becomes, does consolidation negatively affect minority representation, and to what extent? This study employs a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series analysis in order to ascertain the overall impact of consolidation on the descriptive representation of African Americans since 1965. Results indicate that while representation has increased in recent decades, there are discernible declines in following consolidation, and noticeable representational disparities in counties previously covered by the Voting Rights Act.

The 1982 Voting Rights Act Extension as a “Critical Juncture”: Ronald Reagan, Bob Dole, and Republican Party-Building

Republican support for the 1982 Voting Rights Act (VRA) extension is a puzzle for scholars of racial policy coalitions. The extension contained provisions that were manifestly antithetical to core principles of the “color-blind” policy alliance said to dominate the GOP. Recent scholarship has explained this puzzling decision by arguing that conservatives were confident that the VRA's most objectionable provisions could be undone by the federal bureaucracy and judiciary, while absolving Republicans of the blame of being against voting rights. This article suggests that the picture is more complicated. Applying the concept of “critical junctures” to the 1982 VRA extension, the article highlights the importance of actors’ contingent decisions and reveals a wider range of choices available to political entrepreneurs than has been conventionally understood. Highlighting differing views within the Reagan administration, this article also identifies a wider range of reasons why Republicans supported the act's extension, including career ambition, party-building, policy agenda advancement, and genuine commitment, rather than simply a defensive stance as implied by recent histories.

A Logical Model for Predicting Minority Representation: Application to Redistricting and Voting Rights Cases

Understanding when and why minority candidates emerge and win in particular districts entails critical implications for redistricting and the Voting Rights Act. I introduce a quantitatively predictive logical model of minority candidate emergence and electoral success—a mathematical formula based on deductive logic that can logically explain and accurately predict the exact probability at which minority candidates run for office and win in given districts. I show that the logical model can predict about 90% of minority candidate emergence and 95% of electoral success by leveraging unique data of mayoral elections in Louisiana from 1986 to 2016 and state legislative general elections in 36 states in 2012 and 2014. I demonstrate that the logical model can be used to answer many important questions about minority representation in redistricting and voting rights cases. All applications of the model can be easily implemented via an open-source software logical.

Analyzing the Civil Rights Movement: The Significance of Nonviolent Protest, International Influences, the Media, and Pre-existing Organizations

This essay is an analysis of the success of the mid-20th century civil rights movement in the United States. The civil rights movement was a seminal event in American history and resulted in several legislative victories, including the 1964 Civil Rights Act, and the 1965 Voting Rights Act. After a brief overview of segregation and Jim Crow laws in the southern U.S., I will argue that the success of the civil rights movement can be attributed to a combination of factors. One of these factors was the effective strategy of nonviolent protests, in which the American public witnessed the contrasting actions of peaceful protestors and violent local authorities. In addition, political opportunities also played a role in the movement’s success, as during the Cold War the U.S. federal government became increasingly concerned about their international image. Other reasons for the movement’s success include an increased access to television among the American public, and pre-existing black institutions and organizations. The civil rights movement left an important legacy and ensuing social movements have utilized similar framing techniques and strategies.