A Logical Model for Predicting Minority Representation: Application to Redistricting and Voting Rights Cases

Understanding when and why minority candidates emerge and win in particular districts entails critical implications for redistricting and the Voting Rights Act. I introduce a quantitatively predictive logical model of minority candidate emergence and electoral success—a mathematical formula based on deductive logic that can logically explain and accurately predict the exact probability at which minority candidates run for office and win in given districts. I show that the logical model can predict about 90% of minority candidate emergence and 95% of electoral success by leveraging unique data of mayoral elections in Louisiana from 1986 to 2016 and state legislative general elections in 36 states in 2012 and 2014. I demonstrate that the logical model can be used to answer many important questions about minority representation in redistricting and voting rights cases. All applications of the model can be easily implemented via an open-source software logical.

Introduction

Chapter 1 begins by presenting an overview of the vicissitudes of descriptive representation in state legislatures for women and men from the four largest racial groups in the United States, from 1996 to 2015. The chapter then previews the book’s main finding: factors related to representation and candidate emergence, such as the relationship between district populations and descriptive representatives or political ambition, are shaped by race and gender simultaneously. To account for the persistence of underrepresentation among women and minorities, Chapter 1 then advances the intersectional model of electoral opportunity. The model accounts for external and internal, multilevel pressures that constrain and facilitate the realistic candidacy opportunities for white women, white men, men of color, and women of color. The chapter closes by discussing the necessity of studying Asian American women and men, and Latinas and Latinos, in order to better understand representation in a nation shaped by immigration and immigrant communities.

Empirical Strategies for Intersectional Research

Chapter 2 specifies how the book’s research design operationalizes intersectionality theory through its multi-method and multilevel data collection and analysis. This includes an expanded discussion of how using this framework to analyze Asian American women and men, and Latina and Latino candidates, facilitates new understandings of the relationship between race-gendered political processes and electoral opportunity within those communities, and more generally across other groups. The chapter then details the data collection processes for the book’s original datasets. The first is the Gender Race and Communities in Elections dataset, encompassing candidate and district demographic data for every state legislative general election from 1996 to 2015 in 49 states. Next, the American Leadership Survey of state legislators fielded in 2015 is described. And finally, the design for a multi-method case study of Asian American and Latina/o candidate emergence in Los Angeles County is presented.

Candidacy in Contexts

Chapter 3 shifts and expands the lenses that extant scholarship has often relied on to explain candidate emergence. The chapter moves away from a primary focus on individual-level concerns like ambition, to an interactive set of considerations that engage individual, household, group, and macro contexts. Using national survey and interview data, the results and analysis in Chapter 3 affirm the utility of integrating individual-level concerns and domestic relationships with group membership and positioning in explaining variations in candidate emergence. Key findings include lower levels of ambition relative to white men among all other groups in the study, including groups of men, and asymmetrical impacts on domestic structures and relationships stemming from the decision to run. The chapter also relies on a feminist conceptualization of self-recognition to argue that a strong sense of immigrant identity plays a complex role in advancing the likelihood of candidacy among Asian Americans and Latina/os.

“She Came out of Nowhere”

Chapter 7 shifts the case study of Los Angeles to group-level contexts and examines race-gendered processes of candidate development and emergence among Latina/o and Asian American political elites. Latina/os and Asian Americans as pan-ethnic groups occupy distinct positions within the electoral context of Los Angeles County. The chapter uses original qualitative data and interviews to show that the pressures associated with those positions interact with and shape the internal dynamics of candidate development within those communities in distinct ways. Latina/os’ informal but highly organized candidate emergence systems often actively exclude Latinas and limit their access to electoral opportunities that are otherwise available to Latinos. Asian Americans’ lack of political infrastructure contributes to an “entrepreneurial” field of candidates and a dearth of resources to facilitate the emergence of potential Asian American women candidates, in an electoral context marked by a high cost of entry.

If Not Here, Then Where?

Chapter 6 presents a case study of Asian American and Latina/o candidate emergence in Los Angeles County. The county is defined by large immigrant populations, strong coalitions of racial minorities who are Democrats, unions active in electoral politics, and an effective Latina/o political infrastructure focused on candidate development and support. Yet here, as in the rest of the country, white men’s choices about where and when to run appear relatively unconstrained while women and men from other racial groups are largely focused on running in a small number of select seats. The chapter offers new data on patterns of descriptive representation among white, African American and Asian American women and men, and Latina/os in Los Angeles County for the past two decades. The chapter also uses interviews to detail how Latinas, Latinos, and Asian American women are positioned in the political context and coalition politics of the county.

Destined to Run?

While the candidate emergence literature has provided explanations as to why women do not run or think about running for office, we are still learning about the reasons why they do. This question is of interest for the political candidacy of Black women, as this group is most represented among women of color in political office and their numbers continue to grow. Furthermore, because there is evidence that Black women’s entry into politics is distinct from other groups, it is important to explore how Black women come to participate in politics. The authors examine the extent to which Black women’s level of civic engagement influences their likelihood of considering political office compared to other groups of women. They theorize that running for office is a form of political participation and that previous political activity can act as a predictor for political ambition. The authors explore the likelihood that civic engagement matters for Black women being asked to run and considering running for office on their own. Using data from the 2016 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey (CMPS), a unique dataset that provides a large and generalizable sample of racial and ethnic groups in the United States, the authors examine political ambition beyond the groups that have traditionally run for political office. In sum, our data indicates that political participation significantly predicts being asked to run and thinking about running for office. These results reveal the importance of thinking beyond the traditional candidacy pool and how sociopolitical factors matter for key determinants of seeking political office (being asked and having considered running).

To Emerge? Breadwinning, Motherhood, and Women’s Decisions to Run for Office

Women’s underrepresentation in American politics is often attributed to relatively low levels of political ambition. Yet scholarship still grapples with a major leak in the pipeline to power: that many qualified and politically ambitious women decide against candidacy. Focusing on women with political ambition, we theorize that at the final stage of candidate emergence, household income, breadwinning responsibilities, and household composition are interlocking obstacles to women’s candidacies. We examine these dynamics through a multimethod design that includes an original survey of women most likely to run for office: alumnae of the largest Democratic campaign training organization in the United States. Although we do not find income effects, we provide evidence that breadwinning—responsibility for a majority of household income—negatively affects women’s ambition, especially for mothers. These findings have important implications for understanding how the political economy of the household affects candidate emergence and descriptive representation in the United States.

Going alone and taking the independent route: new insights on female candidate emergence

Using a novel approach – examining independent women and comparing them with their party counterparts – this article offers new insights on the emergence, recruitment and election of women candidates, within and beyond political parties. To date, studies of gender, candidate recruitment and institutions have concentrated on parties and party women. These studies highlight the gendered aspects of party candidate recruitment and conclude that parties are gatekeepers of women’s candidacy. This article finds that beyond party boundaries, the emergence and election of independent women is circumscribed by individual, institutional and political culture dynamics that have consequences for independent women’s candidacy. The independent route is no less gendered or more advantageous a pathway for women’s candidacy.