Expectations and Stock Market in Nepal

This study examines the presence of both rational and adaptive expectations hypotheses in the Nepalese stock market by employing panel data analysis under the Fama–French three-factor model. Under the adaptive expectation hypothesis, the book to market equity is an essential determinant in the Nepalese stock market, and only the past 2-year information can explain investment decisions. Likewise, under the rational expectation hypothesis, the value factor, size factor and excess market return are important determinants during the investment decision. The past 3 years of information and the next 3 years of future information are necessary to estimate stock market return under rational expectation. Thus, this study reveals that the investment decision in the Nepalese stock market depends on the investor’s choice and preference upon the factors that are incorporated in the Fama–French three-factor model and the types of expectations in which the investors mostly believe.

Moderating Role of Negative Earnings on Firm Size and Corporate Social Responsibility Relationship: Evidence from Listed Firms on Nigeria Stock Exchange

The fight against coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has called for corporate social responsibility (CSR). Thus, Nigerian businesses, such as in the petroleum and financial industries, have provided hospital donations and $30 million assistance among others to mitigate COVID-19. We investigated the moderating role of negative earnings in firm size–CSR relationship. We used content and logistic panel regression analyses on a sample of 100 firms listed on Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). First, we confirmed a positive firm size–CSR relationship (stakeholders’ expectation hypothesis). Second, we found that earnings loss negatively affects stakeholders’ expectation hypothesis. The study suggests that big firms are likely to negatively respond to the clarion call for donations for COVID-19 due to negative earnings. However, our robustness test revealed that old firms positively respond to CSR activities despite earnings loss. Our study results contribute important insights into the current debate concerning the effect of earnings loss on CSR activities. Corporate managers are encouraged to participate in social activities by contributing their resources for human race sustainability and community development, hence enabling stakeholders to highly value their work, money, support, and societal acceptance.

Validity of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The Case of Saudi Arabia

We examine and test the validity of the expectation hypothesis of the term structure (EHTS) of interest rates in Saudi Arabia using the traditional single equation approach, Campbell and Shiller methodology, Error Correction Model, and monthly data over the period June 1983 to December 2014. The results of the single equation approach indicate that the test of validity of the expectation hypothesis cannot be rejected for all maturities. We also find that the validity of the EHTS of interest rates is supported through the stationarity of the term spreads between short- and long-term interest rates. Moreover, the cointegration test reveals the existence of a cointegration relationship between short- and long-term interest with $\left(1-1\right)$ cointegrating vector, suggesting the validity EHTS of interest rates. Policy implications based on the empirical results suggest that the transparency of monetary policy in Saudi Arabia and the effective role of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) in conducting monetary policy increase the predictive power of market participants of future movements of short-term interest rates.

ALTERNATIVE MONETARY POLICIES UNDER KEYNESIAN ANIMAL SPIRITS

In this paper, we make the case that an argument for price-level targeting over inflation targeting need not to be based on some overly restrictive assumptions. We adopt a theoretical framework that deviates from the assumption of rational expectation, and that takes into account the cognitive limitations and a “trial and error” learning mechanism of the agents. The (im)perfect credibility of various monetary policies (e.g., a Taylor-type rule, strict domestic inflation targeting, strict consumer price index (CPI) inflation targeting, exchange rate peg, and domestic price-level and CPI-level targeting) may lead agents to react according to their expectation rules, and then create various degrees of booms and busts in output and inflation. Therefore, relaxing the rational expectation hypothesis has potential consequences for policy planning. We find that price-level targeting prevails over inflation targeting even under different expectation formation and even when the announced inflation target is not fully credible. The counterfactual analysis and sensitivity test confirm that CPI-level targeting is the most effective for improving social welfare and stability in an open economy. The business cycles induced by animal spirits are enhanced by strict inflation targeting.

Expectations, Narratives, and Socio-Economic Regimes

The chapter proposes a history of the grand narratives associated with a succession of recent socio-economic regimes. Since the 2000s, radical uncertainty has greatly increased, given widespread innovation, and the unprecedented complexity of domestic and international interdependencies. In these circumstances, actors cannot form fully rational expectations because the past is a poor predictor of the future. This agony of the rational expectation hypothesis has opened a wide space to consider the role played by economic narratives in conditions of uncertainty. These narratives are generally rather simple in form and promise a drastic reduction of radical uncertainty and system complexity. Businesses use storytelling to convince markets to finance daring, uncertain projects, and economic policy-makers rely on it to coordinate action. In this way, imaginaries and narratives are crucial in moving capitalist spirits—but at the cost of recurring financial and economic crises as each is found wanting in turn.