An Analysis of the 3 May 2020 Low-Predictability Derecho Using a Convection-Allowing MPAS Ensemble

This study analyzes the low short-range predictability of the 3 May 2020 derecho using a 40-member convection-allowing Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) ensemble. Elevated storms formed in south-central Kansas late at night and evolved into a progressive mesoscale convective system (MCS) during the morning while moving across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas, and affected western and middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky in the afternoon. The convective initiation (CI) in south-central Kansas, the organization of a dominant bow echo MCS and the MCS maintenance over Tennessee were identified as the three main predictability issues. These issues were explored using three MPAS ensemble members, observations and the Rapid Refresh analyses. The MPAS members were classified as successful or unsuccessful with regard to each predictability issue. CI in south-central Kansas was sensitive to the temperature and dewpoint profiles in low levels, which were associated with greater elevated thermodynamic instability and lower level of free convection in the successful member. The subsequent organization of a dominant bowing MCS was well predicted by the member that had more widespread convection in the early stages and no detrimental interaction with other simulated convective systems. Lastly, the inability of MPAS ensemble members to predict the MCS maintenance over western and middle Tennessee was linked to a dry bias in low levels and much lower thermodynamic instability ahead of the MCS compared to observations. This case demonstrates the challenges in operational forecasting of warm-season derecho-producing progressive MCSs, particularly when ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance solutions differ considerably.

Reimagining Training During a Pandemic: The Experience of Middle Tennessee GWEP

A major component of The Middle Tennessee GWEP involves delivery of an annual regional geriatrics update conference. Formerly in-person, the planning committee transformed the 34th Annual Update Conference to a virtual platform within a six-month period. The University partner provided a Zoom platform with licensing and training of program staff. National marketing was achieved through professional societies and purchased e-mailings. Participants numbered 79, including 8 disciplines. Presenters were instructed on platform techniques including screen sharing, polling function, and breakout rooms to enhance audience participation. REDCap registration captured demographic information and facilitated evaluations and post-attendance intention-to-change surveys. Lessons learned were shared with community partners and advisory board members who demonstrated changes in service delivery models and training of new staff to support care to greater numbers of clients and participants. Virtual platforms can extend outreach for valuable learning and service outcomes and maintain high levels of satisfaction among target audiences.