Fiscal Policy and Optimal Taxation in Sierra Leone: Testing for Tax Smoothing Hypothesis

This paper empirically investigate whether the budget imbalances in Sierra Leone over the review period is consistent with optimal tax policy. The procedure involves testing if tax smoothing hypothesis hold for Sierra Leone. In this regard, three different empirical approaches were performed. Firstly, I examine the random walk property of the tax rate. The null hypothesis of non-stationarity of tax rate could not be rejected, which implies the tax rate follows random walk. Second, I examined whether changes in tax rate is predictable by regressing changes in tax rate by its own lagged values. The result shows that tax rate is unpredictable, as changes in tax cannot be determined by its lagged values. Finally, a VAR model was employed to examine whether tax rate can be predicted by its own lagged values together with changes in the government spending rate and the growth rate of real GDP. The results indicate that all the variables employed were found not be significant is predicating the tax rate. Overall, all the empirical estimations support the existence of tax smoothing over the sample period and that the budget inbalances over the review period is consistent with optimal tax policy.