Fiscal Policy and Optimal Taxation in Sierra Leone: Testing for Tax Smoothing Hypothesis

This paper empirically investigate whether the budget imbalances in Sierra Leone over the review period is consistent with optimal tax policy. The procedure involves testing if tax smoothing hypothesis hold for Sierra Leone. In this regard, three different empirical approaches were performed. Firstly, I examine the random walk property of the tax rate. The null hypothesis of non-stationarity of tax rate could not be rejected, which implies the tax rate follows random walk. Second, I examined whether changes in tax rate is predictable by regressing changes in tax rate by its own lagged values. The result shows that tax rate is unpredictable, as changes in tax cannot be determined by its lagged values. Finally, a VAR model was employed to examine whether tax rate can be predicted by its own lagged values together with changes in the government spending rate and the growth rate of real GDP. The results indicate that all the variables employed were found not be significant is predicating the tax rate. Overall, all the empirical estimations support the existence of tax smoothing over the sample period and that the budget inbalances over the review period is consistent with optimal tax policy.

A ten-year review of indications and outcomes of obstetric admissions to an intensive care unit in a low-resource country

Introduction Obstetric intensive care unit admission (ICU) suggests severe morbidity. However, there is no available data on the subject in Ghana. This retrospective review was conducted to determine the indications for obstetric ICU admission, their outcomes and factors influencing these outcomes to aid continuous quality improvement in obstetric care. Methods This was a retrospective review conducted in a tertiary hospital in Ghana. Data on participant characteristics including age and whether participant was intubated were collected from patient records for all obstetric ICU admissions from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2019. Descriptive statistics were presented as frequencies, proportions and charts. Hazard ratios were generated for relations between obstetric ICU admission outcome and participant characteristics. A p-value <0.05 was deemed statistically significant. Results There were 443 obstetric ICU admissions over the review period making up 25.7% of all ICU admissions. The commonest indications for obstetric ICU admissions were hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (70.4%, n = 312/443), hemorrhage (14.4%, n = 64/443) and sepsis (9.3%, n = 41/443). The case fatality rates for hypertension, hemorrhage, and sepsis were 17.6%, 37.5%, and 63.4% respectively. The obstetric ICU mortality rate was 26% (115/443) over the review period. Age ≥25 years and a need for mechanical ventilation carried increased mortality risks following ICU admission while surgery in the index pregnancy was associated with a reduced risk of death. Conclusion Hypertension, haemorrhage and sepsis are the leading indications for obstetric ICU admissions. Thus, preeclampsia screening and prevention, as well as intensifying antenatal education on the danger signs of pregnancy can minimize obstetric complications. The establishment of an obstetric HDU in CCTH and the strengthening of communication between specialists and the healthcare providers in the lower facilities, are also essential for improved pregnancy outcomes. Further studies are needed to better appreciate the wider issues underlying obstetric ICU admission outcomes. Plain language summary This was a review of the reasons for admitting severely-ill pregnant women and women who had delivered within the past 42 days to the intensive care unit (ICU), the admission outcomes and risk factors associated with ICU mortality in a tertiary hospital in a low-resource country. High blood pressure and its complications, bleeding and severe infections were observed as the three most significant reasons for ICU admissions in decreasing order of significance. Pre-existing medical conditions and those arising as a result of, or aggravated by pregnancy; obstructed labour and post-operative monitoring were the other reasons for ICU admission over the study period. Overall, 26% of the admitted patients died at the ICU and maternal age of at least 25 years and the need for intubation were identified as risk factors for ICU deaths. Attention must be paid to high blood pressure during pregnancy.

A Five-Year Review of Caesarean Section at the Rivers State University Teaching Hospital, South-South, Nigeria

Background: Caesarean section (CS) is a major obstetric surgery done for pregnant women and is lifesaving. Aim: The study was aimed at reviewing CS at the Rivers State University Teaching Hospital (RSUTH), to determine the prevalence, trend and indications, for improved management outcomes. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we reviewed five thousand, five hundred and ninety-eight (5598) cases of caesarean sections (3699 emergency, 1899 planned) managed at the RSUTH from 1st January, 2015 to 31st December, 2019. Data collected were analysed using IBM, Statistical Product and Service Solutions (SPSS), version 25.0 Armonk, New York. Results: There were 13,516 deliveries and 5,598 cases of CS over the review period, giving the prevalence of CS as 41.4% or 414 per 1000 deliveries. Emergency and planned CS cases accounted for 66.1% and 33.9% respectively. An increasing trend of CS was observed over the review period. The mean age ± SD of the participants was 32.30±1.04 years (95% CI:30.26,34.34). Modal age group was 35-39 years, accounting for 33.2% followed by those aged 30-34 years (26.2%). Majority of the patients were multipara [3396 (60.7%)], married [4890 (87.4%)], Christians [5540 (99%)] and had tertiary level education [2800 (50%)]. The commonest indication for CS in RSUTH was previous caesarean section [1925(34%)], followed by cephalopelvic disproportion [757(13.4%)], foetal distress [418(7.4%)], preeclampsia [390(6.9%)] and multiple gestation [252 (4.5%)]. Conclusion: The rate of caesarean section is high in RSUTH with an increasing trend. Although CS is lifesaving, efforts should be made to reduce the rate to the level recommended by WHO, especially in Low-middle-income countries (LMICs), where there is high aversion to CS.

OP223 A Semi-Automated Process To Monitor The Clinical Development And Regulatory Approval Pathway Of Innovative Medicines

IntroductionEarly identification of innovative medicines is crucial for timely health technology assessment (HTA) and efficient patient access. The National Institute for Health Research Innovation Observatory (NIHRIO) identifies, monitors and notifies key HTA stakeholders in England of ‘technologies’ (innovative medicines) within three to five years of regulatory approval. Increasing numbers of innovative medicines and significant uncertainties in clinical and regulatory pathways are major challenges in the monitoring and notification process. An active monitoring framework using pre-defined predictive criteria has previously been developed. This framework provides a standardized and consistent process, but is highly resource-intensive, requiring manual review of individual records.MethodsUsing the previous active monitoring framework, a scoring matrix was calculated and used to prioritize individual technologies using available data in the NIHRIO database: estimated regulatory timelines, regulatory awards/designations, innovative medicine type (for example gene therapies) and clinical trial phase, completion dates and results. A threshold for automatic and manual reviewing of technologies was developed and tested by NIHRIO analysts.ResultsThe scoring system identified approximately ninety percent of technologies meeting the threshold for semi-automated reviewing. The review period for these technologies are set automatically according to predefined criteria depending on data availability. The review periods are updated automatically until the record reaches the threshold that triggers manual reviewing. The remaining ten percent had estimated regulatory timelines necessitating the need for manual reviewing and early engagement with companies to verify regulatory timelines and/or notify HTA stakeholders.ConclusionsPreliminary analysis indicates that each technology is routinely and automatically updated. The semi-automatic updating represents a significant improvement in the efficiency of the monitoring of the large volume of technologies on the NIHRIO database. Ongoing work is being undertaken to further refine, pilot and test the system.This project is funded by the NIHR [(HSRIC-2016-10009)/Innovation Observatory]. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Incidence and clinical feature of Myasthenia gravis: A five-year data analysis in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

Myasthenia gravis (MG) is a rare neuromuscular disorder. Till now, there are no studies on the prevalence and incidence of MG in Mongolia. The current study aimed to elucidate the incidence of MG in Ulaanbaatar, the age of onset, and the gender distribution of Mongolian patients with MG. We conducted a cross-sectional, hospital-based study involving MG patients (n=48) all around Ulaanbaatar from 1 January 2015 to 1 January 2020. The clinical diagnosis was assessed with the Myasthenia Gravis Foundation of America (MGFA) classification system. The disease severity was evaluated by using Osserman’s classification. The diagnosis was confirmed with serological and electrophysiological tests. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software. A total of 30 patients with MG were registered for the last five years in Ulaanbaatar. The average annual incidence of MG in Ulaanbaatar was 0.65 per 100,000 populations (95%CI 0.26-1.34), 0.60 in males (95%CI 0.25-1.28), and 0.69 in females (95%CI 0.33-1.46). The cumulative incidence in the study period was 3.2 per 100,000 populations. The ratio of males to females was 1:1,3. The median age for onset of MG was 33 years (ranging from 27 to 46 years); 43.3% of patients had ocular and 56.7% generalized symptoms at the disease onset. Only 23.3% of patients remained with purely ocular symptoms (Osserman I stage). The average incidence of MG between 2015 and 2020 was 6,5 per 1.000.000 population, and the annual incidence was relatively stable. Although ocular and generalized symptoms were observed each in about half of the cases, only one-fourth remained with pure ocular signs at the end of the review period.

Reduction in Malaria Burden Following the Introduction of Indoor Residual Spraying in Areas Protected by Long Lasting Insecticidal Nets in Western Kenya, 2016 – 2018

Background: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are the main malaria vector control measures. Kenya has employed multiple approaches, including free mass net distribution campaigns, for distributing LLINs to the community that resulted in increased household ownership of one or more nets from 44% in 2010 to 63 % in 2015. Migori and Homa Bay Counties are among the malaria endemic counties in Western Kenya that benefitted from three free mass net distribution campaigns between 2012 and 2018.. Widespread pyrethroid resistance among the primary vectors in Western Kenya has necessitated the re-introduction of IRS using an organophosphate insecticide, pirimiphos-methyl (Actellic® 300CS), as part of a strategy to manage insecticide-resistance. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the combined use of non-pyrethroid IRS and LLINs have yielded varied results. We aimed to evaluate malaria indicators before and after the introduction of IRS in a high malaria transmission area compared with an adjacent area where IRS was not introduced until one year later to estimate the effect of the intervention in an area with pyrethroid resistance.Methods: We reviewed records (MoH 405 A, 405 B, and 706) and tallied monthly aggregate of outpatient department (OPD) attendance, suspected malaria cases, those tested for malaria and those testing positive for malaria at two health facilities, one from Nyatike, an intervention sub-county, and one from Suba, a comparison sub-county, both located in Western Kenya, from February 1, 2016, through March 31, 2018. The first round of IRS was conducted in February – March 2017 in Nyatike sub-county and the second round one year later in both Nyatike and Suba sub-counties while the mass distribution of LLINs has been conducted in both locations. We performed a descriptive analysis and estimated the effect of the interventions and temporal changes of malaria indicators using Poisson regression for a period before and after implementation of the first round of IRS.Results: A higher reduction in the intervention area in total OPD, the proportion of OPD visits due to suspected malaria, testing positivity rate and annual malaria incidences except for the total OPD visits among the under 5 children where 59% decrease was observed in the comparison area while 33% decrease was observed in the intervention area (net change -27%, P <0.001). The percentage decline in annual malaria incidence observed in the intervention area was more than twice the observed percentage decline in the comparison area across all the age groups. A marked decline in the monthly testing positivity rate (TPR) was noticed in the intervention area, while no major changes were observed in the comparison area upon introduction of the non-pyrethroid IRS in the intervention area. The monthly TPR reduced from 46% in February 2016 (start of review period) to 11% in February 2018 (end of review period), representing a 76% absolute decrease in TPR among all ages (RR=0.24, 95% CI 0.12–0.46). In the comparison area, TPR was 16% in both February 2016 and February 2018 (RR=1.0, 95% CI 0.52–2.09). A month-by-month comparison revealed that the TPR in Year 2 remained lower than in Year 1 in the intervention area for most of the one year after the introduction of the IRS.Conclusions: Our findings demonstrated a reduced malaria burden among population protected by both non-pyrethroid IRS and LLINs implying a possible additional benefit afforded by the combined intervention in malaria endemic zone.

Diagnostic utility of flow cytometric immunophenotyping in cerebrospinal fluid specimen

Introduction/Objective Flow cytometric immunophenotyping (FCI) of cerebrospinal fluids (CSF) has increasingly been used for diagnosing and monitoring hematologic malignancies. We reviewed CSF specimens sent for flow cytometry evaluation to identify the utility and limitations of FCI. Methods/Case Report We performed a retrospective review on CSF specimens received from July to October 2020. Samples were sent with requisition for unexplained neurologic signs or symptoms, to determine CNS involvement of neoplasm, or to stage a neoplasm. We reviewed specimen volume and cell count of flow cytometry samples and electronic medical records for possible diagnosis at time of specimen submission, final diagnosis, and concurrent cytology diagnosis. Results (if a Case Study enter NA) A total of 104 CSF samples from 59 patients were processed by the Flow Cytometry Laboratory during the review period. Of the 104 samples, 66% were from patients with a prior history of a hematologic malignancy, of which 20% had abnormal findings by FCI and cytomorphology. FCI was noncontributory for the cases in which patient did not have a previously diagnosed hematologic malignancy and underwent lumbar puncture for neurological abnormalities (n = 34). Concurrent cytology results were available in all but one case. Atypical or reactive findings by cytomorphology were seen in 21 cases (20%), for which flow cytometry studies showed no diagnostic immunophenotype in 12 cases. Abnormal FCI results occurred in 5 cases with history of hematologic malignancies, while concurrent cytomorphologic reports were negative. Conclusion Our findings suggest that CSF flow cytometry has low utility for screening patients with undifferentiated neurologic symptoms or without a prior hematologic malignancy history. Use as a screening tool for cases without clinical suspicion of hematolymphoid neoplasm is debatable. Flow cytometric and cytomorphologic analysis should be performed concurrently. While flow cytometric analysis in CSF may have higher sensitivity in hematologic malignancies, cytomorphology appears more favorable in identifying atypia or reactive conditions.

Individual versus general structured feedback to improve agreement in grant peer review: a randomized controlled trial

Background Vast sums are distributed based on grant peer review, but studies show that interrater reliability is often low. In this study, we tested the effect of receiving two short individual feedback reports compared to one short general feedback report on the agreement between reviewers. Methods A total of 42 reviewers at the Norwegian Foundation Dam were randomly assigned to receive either a general feedback report or an individual feedback report. The general feedback group received one report before the start of the reviews that contained general information about the previous call in which the reviewers participated. In the individual feedback group, the reviewers received two reports, one before the review period (based on the previous call) and one during the period (based on the current call). In the individual feedback group, the reviewers were presented with detailed information on their scoring compared with the review committee as a whole, both before and during the review period. The main outcomes were the proportion of agreement in the eligibility assessment and the average difference in scores between pairs of reviewers assessing the same proposal. The outcomes were measured in 2017 and after the feedback was provided in 2018. Results A total of 2398 paired reviews were included in the analysis. There was a significant difference between the two groups in the proportion of absolute agreement on whether the proposal was eligible for the funding programme, with the general feedback group demonstrating a higher rate of agreement. There was no difference between the two groups in terms of the average score difference. However, the agreement regarding the proposal score remained critically low for both groups. Conclusions We did not observe changes in proposal score agreement between 2017 and 2018 in reviewers receiving different feedback. The low levels of agreement remain a major concern in grant peer review, and research to identify contributing factors as well as the development and testing of interventions to increase agreement rates are still needed. Trial registration The study was preregistered at OSF.io/n4fq3.

External Debt Management and Economic Development in Nigeria

This study empirically analyzed external debt management and economic development in Nigeria. The data employed in this study were collected from the CBN statistical bulletin annual report. The study employed Real Gross Domestic Product as the independent variable, while External Debt service, Balance of Payment, External Debt, and Exchange Rate were used as independent variables. The estimation technique employed in this study was Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression method. The findings of this study revealed that external debt management recorded a positive and significant impact on economic development in Nigeria over review period. The study recommended that government of Nigeria should strike a balance between the acquisition of external debt and usage of same for projects that will culminate to enhancement of economic growth and development in Nigeria.

944 Outliers: The Forgotten Patients

Aim It was recognized that surgical wards often have a large number of patients outlied to them. Unfortunately, it was also noted that they often were not regularly seen and so had no daily medical plan. Evidence shows outliers have: The aim was to develop a means of increasing outlier reviews, plans and awareness of outlier parent speciality. Method Medical outliers and outliers from other surgical specialties were included looking at how often care plans were updated and if the nurses knew who and how to contact the patient's named consultant/team. Brightly coloured posters were created to highlight the importance of a patient plan and how to escalate a request. Stickers were created for the notes to highlight outliers and their last plan and their named consultant/team. The effect of the interventions was tracked for just under 6 weeks. Results Initial assessment showed care plans were only updated twice a week and nurses were largely unsure who to contact for an individual outlier. With the increased awareness the nurses achieved three reviews a week with patient plans. Importantly, during the review period there were no adverse events, and the nurses reported increased confidence in who to approach. Patients were also discharged earlier and not moved to another ward. Conclusions The nurses were empowered, and the patients benefitted from more regular reviews and up to date plans, importantly resulting in fewer adverse events and quicker discharges.