The causative relationship between natural resource rent and economic growth: evidence from Ghana’s crude oil resource extraction

Purpose While the relationship between natural resource rent and economic growth is well documented in the literature, not much robust analysis has been done to estimate the causative relationship between oil resource rent and economic growth in Ghana. This might be due to the fact that commercial production of crude oil started not long ago in Ghana. This paper aims to examine the causal relationship between oil resource rent and economic growth for the period of 2011 to 2020 in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach The study incorporates economic growth as a function of oil resource rent, non-oil revenue, foreign direct investment, capital and interest rate in a Cobb–Douglass production function/model. The study used four different estimation strategies including the autoregressive distributed lags model, Toda–Yamamoto test approach, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model and nonlinear Granger causality. Findings The main finding revealed that 1% increase in oil resource rent generates 0.84% increase in economic growth of Ghana in the long run. Contrary, the authors find an insignificant positive effect of oil resource rent on economic growth of Ghana in the short run for the period under study. The result from the Toda–Yamamoto test approach also showed a unidirectional causality running from oil resource rent to economic growth of Ghana, providing evidence in support of the resource blessing hypothesis in Ghana. The results are robust to two different alternative estimation strategies. Originality/value The causal relationship between crude oil resource rent and economic growth is examined.

PENGARUH PEMBIAYAAN BANK SYARIAH TERHADAP TENAGA KERJA USAHA MIKRO, KECIL, DAN MENENGAH (UMKM) DI INDONESIA: METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL)

ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh pembiayaan bank syariah terhadap jumlah tenaga kerja Usaha Mikro, Kecil, dan Menengah (UMKM) di Indonesia periode 2004-2018. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif. Adapun variabel kontrol yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah kredit bank konvensional, inflasi, Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), dan jumlah unit UMKM. Teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL). Temuan dalam penelitian ini adalah secara parsial, dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang pembiayaan bank syariah dan kredit bank konvensional tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap jumlah tenaga kerja UMKM. Inflasi dan PDB berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah tenaga kerja UMKM. Jumlah unit UMKM berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah tenaga kerja UMKM. Secara simultan, pembiayaan bank syariah, kredit bank konvensional, inflasi, PDB, dan jumlah unit UMKM berpengaruh signifikan dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang terhadap jumlah tenaga kerja UMKM. Kata Kunci: Pembiayaan, Kredit, Inflasi, PDB, Jumlah Unit UMKM, Jumlah Tenaga Kerja UMKM ABSTRACTThis study aims to determine the effect of financing disbursed by Islamic banks on the employment of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia 2004-2018. This research was conducted using a quantitative approach. The control variables used in this study were credit, inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the number of MSME units. The analysis technique used was Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL). Partially, in the short and long term, financing and credit did not have a significant effect on the employment of MSMEs. Inflation and GDP have a positive and significant effect on the employment of MSMEs. Meanwhile, the number of MSMEs units has a negative and significant effect on the employment of MSMEs. Simultaneously, financing, credit, inflation, GDP, and the number of MSMEs units have a significant effect in the short term and long term to the amount on the employment of MSMEs.Keywords: Financing, Credit, Inflation, GDP, Number of MSME Units, Employment of MSMEs

Relações entre índices preço-lucro e retornos dos títulos públicos

<p>The ratios P/E1 and P/E10 or the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio are widely disseminated in the literature based on the U.S. stock market. This paper develops a method to construct P/E ratios for the Brazilian stock market. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the long-term relationships between both P/E1 and P/E10 and interest rates corresponding to the returns of treasury bonds, in order to test the Fed Model. In general, the period considered was from December 2004 to June 2018. Autoregressive distributed lags models were estimated, which can be represented as conditional error correction models. Results show significant long-term relationships between both P/E1 and P/E10 and the relevant interest rates, suggesting that the Fed Model is in line with the behavior of the Brazilian financial market.</p>

Export Diversification and Capital Flight in Cameroon

The aim of this study is to show the effect of export diversification on capital flight in Cameroon over the 1984-2015 period. The Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method is used. The results show that the export diversification promotes capital flight in Cameroon. The main recommendation is to ensure efficiency and transparency in the export diversification process in order to fight corruption, report the net worth of exported goods and fight capital flight.