The influence of mayors as candidates in the 2017 parliamentary elections on voter decision-making in Czechia

Local activities of electoral candidates represent one of the key factors influencing voting behaviour. Many studies have shown an elevated electoral support for candidates in the municipality of their residence and the surrounding region. By using the example of mayors who candidated in the 2017 Czech parliamentary elections, this article proves that this voting behaviour is manifested not only through the territorial concentration of preferential votes, but also through higher local electoral support of political parties represented by these candidates. This so-called friends and neighbours effect is stronger in smaller, less populous municipalities. Its spatial extent is not necessarily limited to the respective municipality, but if a well-known and popular mayor appears at the top of the regional candidate list, it can affect voters living many kilometers away, especially in non-metropolitan areas.

The Effect of Television Advertising in United States Elections

We provide a comprehensive assessment of the influence of television advertising on United States election outcomes from 2000–2018. We expand on previous research by including presidential, Senate, House, gubernatorial, Attorney General, and state Treasurer elections and using both difference-in-differences and border-discontinuity research designs to help identify the causal effect of advertising. We find that televised broadcast campaign advertising matters up and down the ballot, but it has much larger effects in down-ballot elections than in presidential elections. Using survey and voter registration data from multiple election cycles, we also show that the primary mechanism for ad effects is persuasion, not the mobilization of partisans. Our results have implications for the study of campaigns and elections as well as voter decision making and information processing.

Voter Decision-Making in a Context of Low Political Trust: The 2016 UK EU Membership Referendum

Using volunteer writing for Mass Observation, we explore how British citizens decided whether to leave the EU. The 2016 referendum was the biggest decision made by the British electorate in decades, but involved limited voter analysis. Many citizens did not have strong views about EU membership in early 2016. The campaigns did not help to firm up their views, not least because so much information appeared to be in dispute. Voters, often characterised as polarised, were reluctant and uncertain. Many citizens took their duty to decide seriously, but were driven more by hunch than careful analysis. In 2016, voters reacted against elites they did not trust at least as much as they embraced the ideas of trusted elites. This contrasts with the 1975 Referendum on the Common Market, when the vote was driven by elite endorsement. In low-trust contexts, voters use cues from elites as negative rather than positive stimulus.

Does Class-Based Campaigning Work? How Working Class Appeals Attract and Polarize Voters

Recent elections have featured various politicians directly appealing to the working class, yet we know little about how citizens react to class appeals from candidates. We investigate this question using survey experiments conducted in the United States and Denmark. We show that symbolic class rhetoric substantially influences candidate evaluations and ultimately polarizes these evaluations across class lines. We also unpack how class appeals work and find that while they increase perceptions of representation among working class voters, they have a more limited effect on perceptions of candidates’ ideological position. Our results help explain how class affects voter decision-making and contribute to broader discussions about the role of political elites in activating social cleavages.

Turning out to turn down the EU: The mobilisation of occasional voters and Brexit

Large amounts of occasional voters participated in the Brexit referendum. How did this increase in turnout affect the outcome of the referendum? To thoroughly explore this question we exploit exogenous variation in voting costs on the local level. Large amounts of rainfall on election day made voting slightly more inconvenient in some areas of the UK. Using this rainfall in an instrumental variable approach, we can assess the voting behaviour of citizens whose benefits of voting just surpass costs under normal circumstances. We show that these voters predominantly supported Leave. Hence, the increase in turnout led to higher Leave support. Subsequently, we explore the likely reason for this observation with survey data. We find evidence that occasional voters were not more likely to support Leave in general, but that the mobilisation of Leave-leaning vs. Remain-leaning occasional voters was lopsided: Leave-leaning occasional voters were more likely to turn out. In a broader picture, our research highlights that the issue-specific mobilisation of low-propensity voters is important for explaining electoral outcomes. This is particularly so in referendums with weak partisan preferences, and where singular issues dominate voter decision making.

The influence of political candidate brands during the 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether voters consider a candidate’s brand image when evaluating election alternatives. That is, how prominent a role does the candidate brand image have in the decision-making process? As election outcomes are behavior-driven, the goal is to examine the potential relationship between the candidate brand image, the self-brand image and voting intention. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected for the third week of October 2012 and again for the same time in 2016 – three weeks prior to the US presidential election each year. An online-based nationwide survey was leveraged, followed by correlation, regression and mediation analysis. Findings Candidate brand image has a role in US presidential elections. In addition, candidate brand image and self-brand image are significantly related to voting intention. In both elections, the losing candidate’s brand image was more of a factor when it came to voting intention, as both candidates’ brand image mediated the relationships between self-brand image and voting intention for all voters. Research limitations/implications A link between candidate brand image and voting intention was demonstrated for perhaps the first time. With results showing candidate brand image does relate to the voter’s self-brand image and voting intention, future research should investigate what other brand elements are a factor. There are undoubtedly other factors – some branding-related, others not branding-related – that go into voter decision-making. Because results were stronger for a losing candidate than a winning one, research should also examine whether this occurrence was coincidence or consistent voter behavior. Practical implications When voters considered who might best represent themselves, the brand image of the candidate enhanced the likelihood of voting for, or against, the candidate. Therefore, it is highly recommended that campaign managers understand not only the importance of their candidate’s brand image to develop and maintain a positive image among their supporters but also how to highlight what their supporters view as the negative aspects of the opposing candidates’ brand image to increase the lack of affinity for competitors. Originality/value This research demonstrates, for the first time, that candidates’ brand image is considered by voters in a US presidential election. In addition, it discovers the role candidate brand image plays in voting intention. Finally, it provides direction for campaign managers to conduct research into candidates as brands to build brand relationships with the electorate.