Future economic perspective and potential revenue of non-subsidized wind turbines in Germany

Fixed feed-in tariffs based on the Renewable Energy Act grant secure revenues from selling electricity for wind turbine operators in Germany. Anyhow, the level of federal financial support is being reduced consecutively. Plant operators must trade self-sufficiently in the future and hence generate revenue by selling electricity directly on electricity markets. Therefore, uncertain future market price developments will influence investment considerations and may lead to stagnation in the expansion of renewable energies. This study estimates future revenue potentials of non-subsidized wind turbines in Germany to reduce this risk. The paper introduces and analyses a forecasting model that generates electricity price time series suited for revenue estimation of wind turbines based on the electricity exchange market. Revenues from the capacity market are neglected. The model is based on openly accessible data and applies a merit-order approach in combination with a simple agent-based approach to forecast long-term day-ahead prices at an hourly resolution. The hourly generation profile of wind turbines can be mapped over several years in conjunction with fluctuations in the electricity price. Levelized revenue of energy is used to assess both dynamic variables (electricity supply and price). The merit-order effect from the expansion of renewables as well as the phasing out of nuclear energy and coal are assessed in a scenario analysis. Based on the assumptions made, the opposing effects could result in a constant average price level for Germany over the next 20 years. The influence of emission prices is considered in a sensitivity analysis and correlates with the share of fossil generation capacities in the generation mix. In a brief case study, it was observed that current average wind turbines are not able to yield financial profit over their lifetime without additional subsidies for the given case. This underlines a need for technical development and new business models like power purchase agreements. The model results can be used for setting and negotiating appropriate terms, such as energy price schedule or penalties for those agreements.

Revenue Estimation of Pit Seam 14 Quarter Mine Block Sequence Design Based on Coal Reference Price Prediction at PT Alam Jaya Pratama, East Kalimantan Province

Seam 14 is one of coal prospects owned by PT Alamjaya Bara Pratama (PT ABP) with an estimated coal resources of ±4,022,458.63 tons which is will be produced in 2020 so that required a pit and mine sequence design used as a guideline in carrying out coal production activities. On the other hand, the uncertainty of coal prices caused the mine sequence design to be evaluated within a certain time as the coal reference price (HBA) was altered and company’s production target. The model equation of coal reference price prediction in 2020 was carried out by using multiple linear regression method. Based on that model, prediction of coal reference price was obtained in CW 1 = $80.21, CW 2 = $81.47 and CW 3 = $82.50. The Pit 14 was designed with the consideration of company's geotechnical recommendation which is can be achieved on the conditions of stripping ratio (SR) of 6 and 7. The mine sequence was designed base on the evaluation of coal production in 2019 (CW 1 = SR > 3, CW 2 = 3 ≤ SR ≤ 6 and CW 3 = SR > 6). The calculation results of estimated revenue of Pit 14 with SR = 6 is CW 1 = US$40,131,297.12; CW 2 = US$36,431,457.31; and CW 3 = US$19,601,965.40. Estimated revenue of Pit 14 with SR = 7 is CW 1 = US$41,821,080.50; CW 2 = US$39,204,128.39; and CW 3 = US$31,715,767.60.

Generation Revenue Regulation and Incentive Contract Design in Electricity Market

In order to curb market power, encourage investment and redistribute welfare, revenue regulation should be carried out in electricity market. The incentive contract represented by the Contract for Difference is a kind of regulation. This paper proposes a Government Authorized Contract based on Revenue Estimation Method (REM) from the perspective of regulating generation revenue. First, the principle and design of the Vesting Contract in Singapore electricity market is employed, analyzing its limitations in regulation. Then, the incentive contract based on REM is presented in four steps. Finally, the IEEE30 node classic system is adopted to demonstrate the proposed model, showing that it can promote generators to bid rationally.