Finance and Structural Change

This chapter emphasizes two crucial links between finance and structural change. The first is a direct contribution with finance supporting innovative sectors through long-term funding. The chapter highlights the role of development banks, multilateral, but especially national ones, which should place structural transformation at the centre of their activities. The second link emphasized involves avoiding the risks associated with boom–bust cycles in external as well as domestic private financing. The proper use of capital account regulations as one of the instruments of macroeconomic policies in open economies is essential, particularly in emerging and developing countries. At the domestic level, avoiding unsustainable credit booms, and managing the maturity and currency mismatches in portfolios, are also emphasized.

Banking, Trade, and the Making of a Dominant Currency*

We explore the interplay between trade-invoicing patterns and the pricing of safe assets in different currencies. Our theory highlights the following points: (i) a currency’s role as a unit of account for invoicing decisions is complementary to its role as a safe store of value; (ii) this complementarity can lead to the emergence of a single dominant currency in trade invoicing and global banking, even when multiple large candidate countries share similar economic fundamentals; (iii) firms in emerging-market countries endogenously take on currency mismatches by borrowing in the dominant currency; and (iv) the expected return on dominant-currency safe assets is lower than that on similarly safe assets denominated in other currencies, thereby bestowing an “exorbitant privilege” on the dominant currency. The theory thus provides a unified explanation for why a dominant currency is so heavily used in both trade invoicing and in global finance.

A Conceptual Model for the Integrated Policy Framework

In the Mundell-Fleming framework, standard monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility fully insulate economies from shocks. However, that framework abstracts from many real world imperfections, and countries often resort to unconventional policies to cope with shocks, such as COVID-19. This paper develops a model of optimal monetary policy, capital controls, foreign exchange intervention, and macroprudential policy. It incorporates many shocks and allows countries to differ across the currency of trade invoicing, degree of currency mismatches, tightness of external and domestic borrowing constraints, and depth of foreign exchange markets. The analysis maps these shocks and country characteristics to optimal policies, and yields several principles. If an additional instrument becomes available, it should not necessarily be deployed because it may not be the right tool to address the imperfection at hand. The use of a new instrument can lead to more or less use of others as instruments interact in non-trivial ways.

Currency Uncertainty, Interest Guarantee, and Risk-Based Premiums in Life Insurance Guaranty Schemes

This paper investigates risk-based premiums in ex-ante insurance guaranty schemes. Exchange rate risk is incorporated into the asset portfolio to reflect the growing practice of life insurers taking offshore risks for yield enhancement. The closed-form solutions of the risk-based premium charged by the insurance guaranty fund are derived. Our premium rating includes currency mismatches between assets and liabilities, and the effects of early closure, capital forbearance, and grace periods are fully explored. First, we discover that the insurance guaranty fund premium is underestimated if currency fluctuation uncertainty is overlooked. Second, the premium is higher under regulatory forbearance than it is under the Merton stock put option, which implies that the cost is substantial. Finally, we note that the premium increases with higher financial leverage and greater foreign exposure in the asset portfolio. The results of our analysis provide further insight for regulators to implement regulatory policies and insurance guaranty schemes.

Dampening Global Financial Shocks

We show that macroprudential regulation can considerably dampen the impact of global financial shocks on emerging markets. More specifically, a tighter level of regulation reduces the sensitivity of GDP growth to VIX movements and capital flow shocks. A broad set of macroprudential tools contribute to this result, including measures targeting bank capital and liquidity, foreign currency mismatches, and risky forms of credit. We also find that tighter macroprudential regulation allows monetary policy to respond more countercyclically to global financial shocks. This could be an important channel through which macroprudential regulation enhances macroeconomic stability. These findings on the benefits of macroprudential regulation are particularly notable since we do not find evidence that stricter capital controls provide similar gains.

CURRENCY MISMATCHES IN EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES: IS WINTER COMING?

We develop a currency mismatch index and examine the causes of currency mismatchesin emerging market economies. This study is based on a unique dataset on 22economies from 2008 to 2017. We also construct the original sin index using granulardata on international debt securities. We find Latin American countries, followedby Central European countries, suffer from the original sin and currency mismatchproblems. The panel regression estimates show that country size, trade openness, andthe level of economic and financial development explain cross-country variations incurrency mismatches. Our empirical results suggest that unstable monetary and fiscalpolicies are the primary causes of currency mismatches. The results indicate that abetter institutional environment reduces currency mismatches. These findings call formonetary independence, stable fiscal policy, and macroprudential policy measures tominimize currency mismatches.

Intervention Under Inflation Targeting--When Could It Make Sense?

We investigate the motives inflation-targeting central banks in emerging markets may have for intervening in foreign exchange markets and evaluate the case for such interventions based on the existing literature. Our findings suggest that the rationale for interventions depends on initial conditions and country-specific circumstances. The case is strongest in the presence of large currency mismatches or underdeveloped markets. While interventions can have benefits in the short-term, sustained over time they could entrench unfavorable initial conditions, though more work is needed to establish this empirically. A first effort to measure the cost of interventions to the credibility of policy frameworks suggests that the negative impact may be smaller than often assumed—at least for the set of more sophisticated inflation-targeting emerging-market central banks considered here.

The Expansionary Lower Bound

We provide a theory of the limits to monetary policy independence in open economies arising from the interaction between capital flows and domestic collateral constraints. The key feature of our theory is the existence of an “Expansionary Lower Bound” (ELB), defined as an interest rate threshold below which monetary easing becomes contractionary. The ELB can be positive, thus acting as a more stringent constraint than the Zero Lower Bound. Furthermore, the ELB is affected by global monetary and financial conditions, leading to novel international spillovers and crucial departures from Mundell’s trilemma. We present two models under which the ELB may arise, the first featuring carry-trade capital flows and the second highlighting the role of currency mismatches.