Questions on notice to Falinksi Inquiry

A response to questions on notice for Australia's 2021 Inquiry into housing affordability and supply in Australia. First, is a negative relationship between change in housing stock and real price from OECD data (1990-2015) solid evidence? Second, what do developers actually say about how they manage undeveloped land? Third, what questions should be asked to developers in this Inquiry.

Robust Volatility Estimation and Analysis of the Leverage Effect

<p>Using volatility estimation as the underlying commonality this thesis traverses the statistical problem of robust estimation of scale, through to the financial problem of valuing call options over stock. We use a large simulation study of robust scale estimators to benchmark a nonparametric volatility estimation procedure, which not only uses techniques which are particularly suited to observed financial returns, but also addresses the problem of bias in any robust volatility estimation procedure. Existing option pricing models are discussed with careful study of the assumed volatility and elasticity of volatility with respect to stock price relationships for each of these models. An option pricing formula is derived which extends existing methods, and provides a closed form solution which can be readily computed. Preliminary analysis of real price data suggests this model is able to explain observed leverage phenomena.</p>

Robust Volatility Estimation and Analysis of the Leverage Effect

<p>Using volatility estimation as the underlying commonality this thesis traverses the statistical problem of robust estimation of scale, through to the financial problem of valuing call options over stock. We use a large simulation study of robust scale estimators to benchmark a nonparametric volatility estimation procedure, which not only uses techniques which are particularly suited to observed financial returns, but also addresses the problem of bias in any robust volatility estimation procedure. Existing option pricing models are discussed with careful study of the assumed volatility and elasticity of volatility with respect to stock price relationships for each of these models. An option pricing formula is derived which extends existing methods, and provides a closed form solution which can be readily computed. Preliminary analysis of real price data suggests this model is able to explain observed leverage phenomena.</p>

PRICE BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS OF BRAZILIAN YERBA MATE EXPORTED TO URUGUAY BETWEEN 1997 AND 2018

The objective of this study was to evaluate price seasonality of the Brazilian Yerba mate exported to the Uruguayan market, serving as a basis for decision-making to the producers. For this purpose, we collected data on Brazilian yerba mate exports to Uruguay, available in the ALICE-WEB System, which, after deflation, were used to determine the Seasonal Index for different periods between 1997 and 2018 The results showed that the market for yerba mate does not present regular historical cycles, the prices of the Brazilian product in the Uruguayan market suffer constant falls and increases. Nevertheless, it is possible to observe a long-term trend of increasing the real price of the product at an average rate of 0.33% per month. It is possible to conclude that the price of Brazilian yerba mate in the Uruguayan market was in the ascendancy until the beginning of 2015, when the Uruguayan Justice instituted an investigation to investigate the presence of cadmium and lead at levels above the allowed ones in the Brazilian product. At the end of the study period, there was a slight tendency to recover prices, however, only new studies will be able to verify if the price of Brazilian yerba on the Uruguayan market will reach levels similar to those registered before the judicial embargo.Keywords: international trade; seasonality; competitiveness.

Does Pet Policy in a Condominium Building Impact Property Values?

Pets are permitted in some condominium buildings and not in others. Pet owners will therefore be attracted more towards buildings that welcome pets than otherwise. However, the pet-related regulations may altogether restrict all sorts of pets, including small pets, such as cats, while others may include restrictions on the number of pets allowed per unit, certain breeds or set restrictions on the permissible size of a pet. These restrictions may impact the price of condominiums. Using a hedonic price model, this research paper analyses whether and by how much allowance for pets in the building impacts property values in downtown Toronto using condominium sales data from January 2016 to December 2017 and information derived from a pet policy questionnaire. The findings suggest that the price differences are not statistically significant between buildings that allow pets or otherwise. In fact, the real price difference is observed for the degree of pet friendliness. Condominium buildings that allow two or more pets sell for higher prices than those that allow less than two pets. Furthermore, condominium buildings that allow two or more dogs sell for a higher price. Also, condominium buildings that impose weight, size or breed restrictions cost 5.7 percent more than those do not have those restrictions. Keywords: hedonic price model, pet policy, condominiums, GIS, Toronto

Does Pet Policy in a Condominium Building Impact Property Values?

Pets are permitted in some condominium buildings and not in others. Pet owners will therefore be attracted more towards buildings that welcome pets than otherwise. However, the pet-related regulations may altogether restrict all sorts of pets, including small pets, such as cats, while others may include restrictions on the number of pets allowed per unit, certain breeds or set restrictions on the permissible size of a pet. These restrictions may impact the price of condominiums. Using a hedonic price model, this research paper analyses whether and by how much allowance for pets in the building impacts property values in downtown Toronto using condominium sales data from January 2016 to December 2017 and information derived from a pet policy questionnaire. The findings suggest that the price differences are not statistically significant between buildings that allow pets or otherwise. In fact, the real price difference is observed for the degree of pet friendliness. Condominium buildings that allow two or more pets sell for higher prices than those that allow less than two pets. Furthermore, condominium buildings that allow two or more dogs sell for a higher price. Also, condominium buildings that impose weight, size or breed restrictions cost 5.7 percent more than those do not have those restrictions. Keywords: hedonic price model, pet policy, condominiums, GIS, Toronto

Does smoke-free legislation work for teens too? A logistic regression analysis of smoking prevalence and gender among 16 years old in Ireland, using the 1995–2015 ESPAD school surveys

ObjectivesTo assess the role of tobacco control legislation (TCL) in youth smoking in Ireland. To examine the effects of smoke-free legislation in youth. To consider whether TCL contributed to the gender equalisation in prevalence in 16 years old seen between 2003 and 2015.SettingData are from the 4 yearly European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs from 1995 to 2015. Total sample size was 12.394. A logistic regression model on grouped data was used. Dependent variable is whether a student was a smoker in last 30 days. Independent variables are time, gender and the policy indicators, workplace ban on smoking, point-of-sale (POS) display ban, the introduction of graphical images on packs and the average real price of cigarettes.ResultsSmoking prevalence dropped from 41% in 1995 to 13% in 2015. The effects of policies differed between boys and girls. For girls, estimates for workplace bans, graphical images on packs and a unit real (Consumer Price Index adjusted) price increase reduced prevalence by 7.31% (95% CI 2.94% to 11.68%), 8.80% (95% CI 2.60% to 15.01%) and 5.87 (95% CI 2.96 to 8.79), respectively. The POS ban did not have a significant effect in girls. For boys, estimates for workplace bans and a unit real price increase, reduced prevalence by 8.41% (95% CI 5.16% to 11.66%) and 4.93% (95% CI 0.77% to 9.08%), respectively, POS gave an increase of 7.02% (95% CI 1.96% to 12.40%). The introduction of graphical images had an insignificant effect.ConclusionsTC legislation helps to explain the out-of-trend reduction in youth smoking prevalence. The estimated differential effects of the workplace ban, POS displays, real price changes and graphical images on packs help to explain the sharper decline in girls than boys. These findings should remind policy-makers to give increased consideration to the possible effects on young people of any legislative changes aimed at adults in TCL.