Spatial Market Integration: A Case Study of the Polish–Czech Milk Market

Analyses of spatial market integration contributes to the knowledge about market efficiency and provides information to policymakers, as the spatial integration of markets contributes to competitiveness and economic development. Although the integration of agri-food markets is widely discussed in the economic literature, research on the dairy sector is relatively limited. This paper fulfils the research gap with an in-depth investigation of spatial milk and dairy product market integration between two neighboring countries—Poland and Czechia—using regional data, and including both production and processing levels. The econometric analysis of time series covering the period 2001–2021 reveals that only long-run milk and skimmed milk powder (SMP) price relationships are between the Czech Republic and Poland. The results of the study confirm that the factors influencing spatial price relationships between the Czech Republic and Poland are: strong trade ties, the common moment of accession to the EU, a close distance between markets, and region specialization.

Robust Volatility Estimation and Analysis of the Leverage Effect

<p>Using volatility estimation as the underlying commonality this thesis traverses the statistical problem of robust estimation of scale, through to the financial problem of valuing call options over stock. We use a large simulation study of robust scale estimators to benchmark a nonparametric volatility estimation procedure, which not only uses techniques which are particularly suited to observed financial returns, but also addresses the problem of bias in any robust volatility estimation procedure. Existing option pricing models are discussed with careful study of the assumed volatility and elasticity of volatility with respect to stock price relationships for each of these models. An option pricing formula is derived which extends existing methods, and provides a closed form solution which can be readily computed. Preliminary analysis of real price data suggests this model is able to explain observed leverage phenomena.</p>

Robust Volatility Estimation and Analysis of the Leverage Effect

<p>Using volatility estimation as the underlying commonality this thesis traverses the statistical problem of robust estimation of scale, through to the financial problem of valuing call options over stock. We use a large simulation study of robust scale estimators to benchmark a nonparametric volatility estimation procedure, which not only uses techniques which are particularly suited to observed financial returns, but also addresses the problem of bias in any robust volatility estimation procedure. Existing option pricing models are discussed with careful study of the assumed volatility and elasticity of volatility with respect to stock price relationships for each of these models. An option pricing formula is derived which extends existing methods, and provides a closed form solution which can be readily computed. Preliminary analysis of real price data suggests this model is able to explain observed leverage phenomena.</p>

Vertical price transmission in Swiss dairy and cheese value chains

In Switzerland, there are separated value chains for dairy and cheese products, which differ in terms of industry concentration, value chain governance, and product characteristics. We analyze how milk prices are passed on along these different value chains. Using detailed price data on farm gate, wholesale, export, and retail levels, we apply asymmetric vector autoregressive and vector error correction models to study vertical price transmission in Swiss dairy and cheese chains. Contrary to most existing literature, we find almost no long-run price relationships and no significant asymmetries between the different stages and products and discuss the potential reasons.

An Auxiliary Index for Reducing Brent Crude Investment Risk—Evaluating the Price Relationships between Brent Crude and Commodities

Examining the price relationships of Brent Crude with 78 global commodities, our study shows that the spot price of a certain commodity, New York Harbor No. 2 Heating Oil Spot Price FOB, can serve as an auxiliary forecasting index of the rise and fall of the monthly Brent Crude oil price. With an innovative view for evaluating the price relationship and prediction based on simple, practical measurement, our findings provide a helpful auxiliary index tool for investors and analysts by offering a high success rate (82.98%) and predicting the rise and fall of the monthly Brent Crude oil price three weeks in advance.

Economics of Battery Use in Agriculture: Economic Viability of Renewable Energy Complemented with Batteries in Agriculture

The production of renewable energy fluctuates in terms of sun and wind and must be supplemented by storage in the system. On an individual basis, i.e., for centralized electricity production and predominantly self-consumption, the use of batteries is considered here. Possible future development scenarios were simulated based on current price relationships (status quo). In the status quo, a selling price for PV electricity of 13 Euro cents (ct)ct/kWh was assumed with a production cost of 11 ct/kWh. The selling price of wind power is 5 ct/kWh with a production cost of 3 ct/kWh. The cost of storing electricity in a battery increases the price by 33 ct/kWh. A price of 20 ct/kWh is assumed for electricity purchases by companies. In the status quo, the use of batteries is not economical given the assumed price relationships. Changing the framework conditions, such as those of the legislature in Germany with the nuclear power phase-out and in the EU with the coal exit and decarbonization, will lead to increased availability of (fluctuating) renewable electricity, especially during the day. The purchase of electricity at other times, when the supply is scarce, can lead to increased electricity prices, especially at night. Together with falling costs for storage, the use of batteries for centralized power generators could be very interesting in the future. The method used in this study is nonlinear optimization of the target function costs of electricity supply in the developed simulation model. The results can also be transferred to other countries, as the assumed trends apply worldwide.

Analysis of Financial Problems of Wind Farms in Poland

Wind energy has been operating in Poland for over 20 years, but many opinions on its profitability are based on publications from other countries and simulations prepared by manufacturers. However, the truth is that the climatic specificity of various countries and price relationships, especially energy prices and subsidies, significantly differentiate this profitability depending on the country. The publication aimed to look at the profitability of wind farms in Poland from three perspectives: financial analysis, NPV (Net Present Value) calculation for older wind farms (2006–2014), and break-even price of energy for these farms (for a non-negative NPV). The research hypothesis set out in the publication stated that wind farms from this period require higher energy prices than current market prices in Poland to achieve a return on invested capital. An element of novelty was calculating the energy price range that would provide an opportunity for at least some of the older farms operating in the green certificates scheme to achieve a positive NPV. We also attempted to demonstrate that the loss of control over the prices of green certificates, which took place in 2014–2017, led to such a decrease in energy prices that the 2006–2014 wind farms suffered a net loss.

Dynamic price relationships and price discovery among cheese markets

The United States (U.S.) cheese sector has been steadily growing throughout the years. Since 1980, U.S. consumers have doubled their annual consumption of cheese, currently at about 37.9 lbs. per capita in 2018 excluding cottage cheese. Cheese varieties are generally classified as American type (Cheddar, Monterey and others), Italian type (Mozzarella and others), and Other type (Swiss, Muenster and others) since they serve different markets. American cheese is consumed regularly in hamburgers, sandwiches and in similar settings. Italian cheese is typically consumed in pizzas, pasta and Italian cuisine. Despite the burgeoning growth in cheese demand, there has been no study addressing the dynamic price relationship among different varieties of cheese. This study investigates the price discovery process among cheese varieties: Cheddar, Mozzarella, Swiss, Muenster, and Monterey by using a vector error correction model and standard innovation accounting. Results indicate relative price interaction among different varieties of cheese, providing empirical evidence of some decouplment or separation among American (Cheddar and Monterey), Italian (Mozzarella), and Other type (Swiss). An exemption is Muenster which despite being classified as Other type of cheese responds to American’s Cheddar.