Targeted vaccination and the speed of SARS-CoV-2 adaptation

The limited supply of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 raises the question of targeted vaccination. Older and more sensitive hosts should be vaccinated first to minimize the disease burden. But what are the evolutionary consequences of targeted vaccination? We clarify the consequences of different vaccination strategies through the analysis of the speed of viral adaptation measured as the rate of change of the frequency of vaccine-escape mutations. We show that a vaccine-escape mutant is expected to spread faster if vaccination targets individuals which are likely to be involved in a higher number of contacts. We also discuss the pros and cons of dose-sparing strategies. Because delaying the second dose increases the proportion of the population vaccinated with a single dose, this strategy can both speed-up the spread of the vaccine-escape mutant and reduce the cumulated number of deaths. Hence, slowing down viral adaptation may not always be the optimal vaccination strategy. We contend that a careful assessment of the consequences of alternative vaccination strategies on both (i) the speed of adaptation and (ii) the mortality is required to determine which individuals should be vaccinated first.

Nucleotide polymorphism assay for the identification of west African group Bacillus anthracis: a lineage lacking anthrose

Background The exosporium of the anthrax-causing Bacillus anthracis endospores display a tetrasaccharide composed of three rhamnose residues and an unusual sugar termed anthrose. Anthrose is a proposed potential target for immunotherapy and for specific detection of B. anthracis. Although originally thought to be ubiquitous in B. anthracis, previous work identified an anthrose negative strain from a West African lineage isolated from cattle that could represent a vaccine escape mutant. These strains carry genes required for expression of the anthrose operon but premature stop codons resulting from an 8-bp insertion in BAS3320 (an amino-transferase) and a C/T substitution at position 892 of the BAS3321 (a glycosyltransferase) gene prevent anthrose expression. Various other single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been identified throughout the operon and could be the basis for detection of anthrose-deficient strains. Results In this study, we evaluated rhAmp genotypic assays based on SNPs at positions 892 and 1352 of BAS3321 for detection and differentiation of anthrose negative (Ant−) West African strains. Discrimination of anthrose negative West African isolates was achieved with as low as 100 fg of DNA, whereas consistent genotyping of Sterne necessitated at least 1 pg of DNA. Conclusions Screening of a global panel of B. anthracis isolates showed anthrose-expressing alleles are prevalent worldwide whereas the anthrose-deficient phenotype is to date limited to West Africa. Our work also revealed a third, previously unreported anthrose genotype in which the operon is altogether missing from a Polish B. anthracis isolate.

Immune Complex Mediated Glomerulonephritis with Acute Thrombotic Microangiopathy following Newly Detected Hepatitis B Virus Infection in a Kidney Transplant Recipient

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) presents a risk to patients and staff in renal units. To minimise viral transmission, there are international and UK guidelines recommending HBV immunisation for patients commencing renal replacement therapy (RRT) and HBV surveillance in kidney transplant recipients. We report the case of a 56-year-old male who was immunised against HBV before starting haemodialysis. He received a deceased donor kidney transplant three years later, at which time there was no evidence of HBV infection. After a further six years he developed an acute kidney injury; allograft biopsy revealed an acute thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA) with glomerulitis, peritubular capillaritis, and C4d staining. Due to a “full house” immunoprofile, tests including virological screening were undertaken, which revealed acute HBV infection. Entecavir treatment resulted in an improvement in viral load and kidney function. HBV genotyping demonstrated a vaccine escape mutant, suggesting “past resolved” infection that reactivated with immunosuppression, though posttransplant acquisition cannot be excluded. This is the first reported case of acute HBV infection associated with immune complex mediated glomerulonephritis and TMA. Furthermore, it highlights the importance of HBV surveillance in kidney transplant recipients, which although addressed by UK guidelines is not currently practiced in all UK units.

Predicting the Impact of a Nonsterilizing Vaccine against Human Immunodeficiency Virus

ABSTRACT Studies of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vaccines in animal models suggest that it is difficult to induce complete protection from infection (sterilizing immunity) but that it is possible to reduce the viral load and to slow or prevent disease progression following infection. We have developed an age-structured epidemiological model of the effects of a disease-modifying HIV vaccine that incorporates the intrahost dynamics of infection, a transmission rate and host mortality that depend on the viral load, the possible evolution and transmission of vaccine escape mutant viruses, a finite duration of vaccine protection, and possible changes in sexual behavior. Using this model, we investigated the long-term outcome of a disease-modifying vaccine and utilized uncertainty analysis to quantify the effects of our lack of precise knowledge of various parameters. Our results suggest that the extent of viral load reduction in vaccinated infected individuals (compared to unvaccinated individuals) is the key predictor of vaccine efficacy. Reductions in viral load of about 1 log10 copies ml−1 would be sufficient to significantly reduce HIV-associated mortality in the first 20 years after the introduction of vaccination. Changes in sexual risk behavior also had a strong impact on the epidemic outcome. The impact of vaccination is dependent on the population in which it is used, with disease-modifying vaccines predicted to have the most impact in areas of low prevalence and rapid epidemic growth. Surprisingly, the extent to which vaccination alters disease progression, the rate of generation of escape mutants, and the transmission of escape mutants are predicted to have only a weak impact on the epidemic outcome over the first 25 years after the introduction of a vaccine.