Numerically-Bounded Linguistic Probability Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively

In a recent issue of Earth’s Future [vol. 7, pp. 1020-1026], S. C. Lewis et al. recommended a numerically bounded linguistic probability (NBLP) scheme for communicating probabilistic information in extreme event attribution studies. We provide a critique of NBLP schemes in general and of Lewis et al.’s in particular, noting two key points. First, evidence from voluminous behavioral science research on the interpretation of linguistic probabilities indicates that NBLP schemes are an ineffective means of communicating uncertainty to others. Second, where the motivation to implement such schemes nevertheless persists, the schemes should be developed through an evidence-based approach that seeks to optimize interpretational agreement between the scheme and users.

Developing Rapport and Trust in the Interrogative Context

Decades of behavioral science research has consistently demonstrated the advantages of employing a rapport-based approach to investigative and intelligence interviewing. After identifying the problematic procedures of accusatorial approaches, current research has turned to a more proactive study of the techniques and tactics that align with a rapport-based and information-gathering framework that is effective for eliciting comprehensive and reliable information. Despite a growing body of research supporting the use of this framework, it stands in contrast with an accusatorial approach that is common practice in North America (and other parts of the world). This chapter reviews empirically supported approaches for investigative interviewing (including aspects of effective elicitation and deception detection) and describes recent research on tactics for developing rapport and trust in the interrogative context. Herein we distinguish how trust and rapport-based techniques differ from currently employed confrontational techniques, and provide operational examples of how these tactics have been employed in the field.

The National Academies Board on Human System Integration Panel: Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise

The National Academies Board on Human-Systems Integration (BOHSI) has organized this session. An initial presentation by the Staff Director and the Chair of BOHSI will provide an overview of the Academies and BOHSI. Then the panel chair will present the findings of the 2017 National Academies consensus study entitled “Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise”, a collaborative effort overseen by the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and the Board on Human-Systems Integration. The presentation will include discussion of the critical need for integrating social and behavioral sciences into the weather enterprise. It will also include a summary of relevant research, private sector activities, current research to operations progress, data collection activities, funding support and barriers to progress. It will summarize research gaps and present a framework to sustainably use social and behavioral science research in the weather enterprise. Panelists will address issues related to future opportunities for human factors researchers and practitioners and will engage the audience in a discussion of these issues.