10 July 1894 Istanbul Earthquake: Comparing Damages and Ground Motion Simulations

<p>One of the major earthquakes that resulted in intense damages in Istanbul and its neighborhoods took place on 10 July 1894. The 1894 earthquake resulted in 474 losses of life and 482 injuries. Around 21,000 dwellings were damaged, which is a number that corresponds to 1/7 of the total dwellings of the city at that time. Without any doubt, the exact loss of life was higher. Because of the censorship, the exact loss numbers remained unknown. There is still no consensus about its magnitude, epicentral location, and rupture of length. Even though the hardness of studying with historical records due to their uncertainties and discrepancies, researchers should enlighten the source parameters of the historical earthquakes to minimize the effect of future disasters especially for the cities located close to the most active fault lines as Istanbul. The main target of this study is to enlighten possible source properties of the 1894 earthquake with the help of observed damage distribution and stochastic ground motion simulations. In this paper, stochastic based ground motion scenarios will be performed for the 10 July 1894 Istanbul earthquake, using a finite fault simulation approach with a dynamic corner frequency and the results will be compared with our intensity map obtained from observed damage distributions. To do this, in the first step, obtained damage information from various sources has been presented, evaluated, and interpreted. Secondly, we prepared an intensity map associated with the 1894 earthquake based on macro-seismic information, and damage analysis and classification. For generating ground motions with a stochastic finite fault simulation approach, the EXSIM 2012 software has been used. Using EXSIM, several scenarios are modeled with different source, path, and site parameters. Initial source properties have been obtained from findings of our previous study on the simulation of the 26 September 2019 Silivri (Istanbul) earthquake with Mw 5.8. With the comparison of spatial distributions of the ground motion intensity parameters to the obtained damage and intensity maps, we estimate the optimum location and source parameters of the 1894 Earthquake.</p>

Long-period ground motion simulation using centroid moment tensor inversion solutions based on the regional three-dimensional model in the Kanto region, Japan

We conducted centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversions of moderate ( Mw 4.5–6.5) earthquakes in the Kanto region, Japan, using a local three-dimensional (3D) model. We then investigated the effects of our 3D CMT solutions on long-period ground motion simulations. Grid search CMT inversions were conducted using displacement seismograms for periods of 25–100 s. By comparing our 3D CMT solutions with those from the local one-dimensional (1D) catalog, we found that our 3D CMT inversion systematically provides magnitudes smaller than those in the 1D catalog. The Mw differences between 3D and 1D catalogs tend to be significant for earthquakes within the oceanic slab. By comparing ground motion simulations between 1D and 3D velocity models, we confirmed that observed Mw differences could be explained by differences in the rigidity structures around the source regions between 3D and 1D velocity models. The 3D velocity structures (especially oceanic crust and mantle) are important for estimating seismic moments in intraslab earthquakes, which are related to fault size estimation. A detailed discussion for intraslabe seismicity can be conducted by using the 3D CMT catalog. The seismic moments also directly affect the amplitudes of ground motions. The 3D CMT catalog allows us to directly conduct the precise forward and inverse modeling of long-period ground motion without adjusting source models, which have been typically applied in the cases using the 1D CMT catalog. We also conducted long-period ground motion simulations using our 3D CMT solutions to evaluate the reproducibility of long-period ground motions at stations within the Kanto Basin. The simulations of our 3D CMT solutions well-reproduced observed ground motions for periods longer than 10 s, even at stations within the Kanto Basin. The reproducibility of simulations was improved from those using solutions in the 1D catalog.

Long-period ground motion simulation using centroid moment tensor inversion solutions based on the regional three-dimensional model in the Kanto region, Japan

We conducted centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversions of moderate (Mw 4.5–6.5) earthquakes in the Kanto region, Japan, using a local three-dimensional (3D) model. We then investigated the effects of our 3D CMT solutions on long-period ground motion simulations. Grid search CMT inversions were conducted using displacement seismograms for periods of 25–100 s. By comparing our 3D CMT solutions with those from the local one-dimensional (1D) catalog, we found that our 3D CMT inversion systematically provides magnitudes smaller than those in the 1D catalog. The Mw differences between 3D and 1D catalogs tend to be significant for earthquakes within the oceanic slab. By comparing ground motion simulations between 1D and 3D velocity models, we confirmed that observed Mw differences could be explained by differences in the rigidity structures around the source regions between 3D and 1D velocity models. The 3D velocity structures (especially oceanic crust and mantle) are important for estimating seismic moments in intraslab earthquakes, which are related to fault size estimation. A detailed discussion for intraslabe seismicity can be conducted by using the 3D CMT catalog. The seismic moments also directly affect the amplitudes of ground motions. The 3D CMT catalog allows us to directly conduct the precise forward and inverse modeling of long-period ground motion without adjusting source models, which have been typically applied in the cases using the 1D CMT catalog. We also conducted long-period ground motion simulations using our 3D CMT solutions to evaluate the reproducibility of long-period ground motions at stations within the Kanto Basin. The simulations of our 3D CMT solutions well-reproduced observed ground motions for periods longer than 10 s, even at stations within the Kanto Basin. The reproducibility of simulations was improved from those using solutions in the 1D catalog.