10 July 1894 Istanbul Earthquake: Comparing Damages and Ground Motion Simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nesrin Yenihayat ◽  
Eser Çaktı ◽  
Karin Şeşetyan
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Fault Simulation ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Corner Frequency ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Ground Motion Simulations ◽  
Finite Fault ◽  
Intensity Map ◽  
Observed Damage

<p>One of the major earthquakes that resulted in intense damages in Istanbul and its neighborhoods took place on 10 July 1894. The 1894 earthquake resulted in 474 losses of life and 482 injuries. Around 21,000 dwellings were damaged, which is a number that corresponds to 1/7 of the total dwellings of the city at that time. Without any doubt, the exact loss of life was higher. Because of the censorship, the exact loss numbers remained unknown. There is still no consensus about its magnitude, epicentral location, and rupture of length. Even though the hardness of studying with historical records due to their uncertainties and discrepancies, researchers should enlighten the source parameters of the historical earthquakes to minimize the effect of future disasters especially for the cities located close to the most active fault lines as Istanbul. The main target of this study is to enlighten possible source properties of the 1894 earthquake with the help of observed damage distribution and stochastic ground motion simulations. In this paper, stochastic based ground motion scenarios will be performed for the 10 July 1894 Istanbul earthquake, using a finite fault simulation approach with a dynamic corner frequency and the results will be compared with our intensity map obtained from observed damage distributions. To do this, in the first step, obtained damage information from various sources has been presented, evaluated, and interpreted. Secondly, we prepared an intensity map associated with the 1894 earthquake based on macro-seismic information, and damage analysis and classification. For generating ground motions with a stochastic finite fault simulation approach, the EXSIM 2012 software has been used. Using EXSIM, several scenarios are modeled with different source, path, and site parameters. Initial source properties have been obtained from findings of our previous study on the simulation of the 26 September 2019 Silivri (Istanbul) earthquake with Mw 5.8. With the comparison of spatial distributions of the ground motion intensity parameters to the obtained damage and intensity maps, we estimate the optimum location and source parameters of the 1894 Earthquake.</p>

Prediction of Broadband Ground-Motion Time Histories: The Case of Tehran, Iran

2013 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 633-660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Zafarani ◽  
Hesam Vahidifard ◽  
Anooshirvan Ansari
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Response Spectra ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Corner Frequency ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Motion Time ◽  
Finite Fault ◽  
Time Histories

The northern Tehran fault (NTF) is potentially capable of causing large earth-quakes (Mmax ~ 7.2) in a very densely populated area of northern Tehran, Iran. Due to the lack of recorded strong motion data for earthquakes on the fault, a hybrid simulation method is used to calculate broadband (0.1–20 Hz) ground-motion time histories at bedrock level for deterministic earthquake scenarios on the NTF. Low-frequency components of motion (0.1–1.0 Hz) are calculated using a deterministic approach and the discrete wave number-finite element method in a regional one-dimensional (1-D) velocity model. High frequencies (1.0–20.0 Hz) are calculated by the stochastic finite fault method based on dynamic corner frequency. The results were validated by comparing the simulated peak values and response spectra with the empirical ground motion models available for the area and the Modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) observations from historical earthquakes of the region.

Finite Fault Modelling for the Wenchuan Earthquake Using Hybrid Slip Model with Truncated Normal Distributed Source Parameters

2012 ◽  
Vol 256-259 ◽  
pp. 2161-2167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Dan Sun ◽  
Xia Xin Tao ◽  
Cheng Qing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Field Investigation ◽  
Local Source ◽  
Slip Model ◽  
Fault Models ◽  
Average Spectrum ◽  
Finite Fault ◽  
Truncated Normal

An hybrid slip model combining asperity model and k square model was outlined. In the model, both the global and local source parameters follow a trancated normal distribution. The hybrid slip model was then applied to generate finite fault models for the great Wenchuan earthquake, where the fault plane was assumed to have two segments, a reverse segment on the southwestern of the fault and a right-lateral strike-slip segment on the northeastern of the fault. The location of the asperities on each segment was determined considering the results from inversion and field investigation. 30 different finite fault models were obtained, and the one which generates the ground motion best fitting the average spectrum was picked out using spectral deviation evaluation. Finally, ground motion at six near field stations were simualted based on the best-fit fault model and compared to the records.

Incorporating Simulated Ground Motion in Seismic Risk Assessment: Application to the Lower Indian Himalayas

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathilde B. Sørensen ◽  
Dominik H. Lang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Prediction Equation ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Loss Assessment ◽  
Ground Motion Simulations ◽  
Finite Fault ◽  
Indian Himalayas

In this study, the effects of implementing stochastic finite fault ground motion simulations in earthquake hazard and risk assessment are evaluated. The investigations are conducted for the city of Dehradun (Indian Himalayas). We compare two ground motion estimation techniques: a ground motion prediction equation–based technique and a simulation-based technique. The comparison focuses on the differences the techniques imply on earthquake damage and loss estimates. Ground motion simulations are first calibrated against the instrumental recordings of the 1991 Mw 6.8 Uttarkashi earthquake. Afterward, a number of events are considered with different magnitude, distance, and azimuth to the source. Results indicate large differences between ground motion and loss estimates derived by the two methods, especially in the direction of rupture propagation, which persist to 2–2.5 fault lengths distance. It is therefore strongly recommended to consider rupture kinematics and orientation to the test bed when providing ground motion estimates for near-field earthquake loss assessment studies.

Broad-band ground-motion simulation of 2016 Amatrice earthquake, Central Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 224 (3) ◽  
pp. 1753-1779
Author(s):  
Marta Pischiutta ◽  
Aybige Akinci ◽  
Elisa Tinti ◽  
André Herrero
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Broad Band ◽  
Stochastic Simulations ◽  
Corner Frequency ◽  
Finite Fault ◽  
Seismic Design Code ◽  
Hybrid Simulations

SUMMARY On 24 August 2016 at 01:36 UTC a ML6.0 earthquake struck several villages in central Italy, among which Accumoli, Amatrice and Arquata del Tronto. The earthquake was recorded by about 350 seismic stations, causing 299 fatalities and damage with macroseismic intensities up to 11. The maximum acceleration was observed at Amatrice station (AMT) reaching 916 cm s–2 on E–W component, with epicentral distance of 15 km and Joyner and Boore distance to the fault surface (RJB) of less than a kilometre. Motivated by the high levels of observed ground motion and damage, we generate broad-band seismograms for engineering purposes by adopting a hybrid method. To infer the low frequency seismograms, we considered the kinematic slip model by Tinti et al . The high frequency seismograms were produced using a stochastic finite-fault model approach based on dynamic corner-frequency. Broad-band synthetic time-series were therefore obtained by merging the low and high frequency seismograms. Simulated hybrid ground motions were compared both with the observed ground motions and the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), to explore their performance and to retrieve the region-specific parameters endorsed for the simulations. In the near-fault area we observed that hybrid simulations have a higher capability to detect near source effects and to reproduce the source complexity than the use of GMPEs. Indeed, the general good consistency found between synthetic and observed ground motion (both in the time and frequency domain), suggests that the use of regional-specific source scaling and attenuation parameters together with the source complexity in hybrid simulations improves ground motion estimations. To include the site effect in stochastic simulations at selected stations, we tested the use of amplification curves derived from HVRSs (horizontal-to-vertical response spectra) and from HVSRs (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios) rather than the use of generic curves according to NTC18 Italian seismic design code. We generally found a further reduction of residuals between observed and simulated both in terms of time histories and spectra.

Source modelling and strong ground motion simulations for the 24 January 2020, Mw 6.8 Elazığ earthquake, Turkey

2020 ◽  
Vol 223 (2) ◽  
pp. 1054-1068 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Cheloni ◽  
Aybige Akinci
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Main Shock ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Coulomb Stress ◽  
Epicentral Area ◽  
Fault Segment ◽  
Ground Motion Simulations ◽  
Finite Fault ◽  
Motion Characteristics

SUMMARY On 24 January 2020 an Mw 6.8 earthquake occurred at 20:55 local time (17:55 UTC) in eastern Turkey, close to the town of Sivrice in the Elazığ province, causing widespread considerable seismic damage in buildings. In this study, we analyse the main features of the rupture process and the seismic ground shaking during the Elazığ earthquake. We first use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) interferograms (Sentinel-1 satellites) to constrain the fault geometry and the coseismic slip distribution of the causative fault segment. Then, we utilize this information to analyse the ground motion characteristics of the main shock in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral accelerations. The absence of seismic registrations in near-field for this earthquake imposes major constraints on the computation of seismic ground motion estimations in the study area. To do this, we have used a stochastic finite-fault simulation method to generate high-frequency ground motions synthetics for the Mw 6.8 Elazığ 2020 earthquake. Finally, we evaluate the potential state of stress of the unruptured portions of the causative fault segment as well as of adjacent segments, using the Coulomb stress failure function variations. Modelling of geodetic data shows that the 2020 Elazığ earthquake ruptured two major slip patches (for a total length of about 40 km) located along the Pütürge segment of the well-known left-lateral strike-slip East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), with up to 2.3 m of slip and an estimated geodetic moment of 1.70 $\,\, \times $ 1019 Nm (equivalent to a Mw 6.8). The position of the hypocentre supports the evidence of marked WSW rupture directivity during the main shock. In terms of ground motion characteristics, we observe that the high-frequency stochastic ground motion simulations have a good capability to reproduce the source complexity and capture the ground motion attenuation decay as a function of distance, up to the 200 km. We also demonstrate that the design spectra corresponding to 475 yr return period, provided by the new Turkish building code is not exceeded by the simulated seismograms in the epicentral area where there are no strong motion stations and no recordings available. Finally, based on the Coulomb stress distribution computation, we find that the Elazığ main shock increased the stress level of the westernmost part of the Pütürge fault and of the adjacent Palu segment and as a result of an off-fault lobe.

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