Allocating Unlimited Money: What Explains Super PAC Spending in Congressional Elections?

How do Super PACs allocate their resources? The question is both timely and relevant, particularly as we reflect on the ten-year anniversary of the Citizens United ruling. Super PACs now outspend – sometimes by huge margins, as in the 2016 presidential election – all other groups’ independent expenditures including those of parties, unions, and 501(c) organizations. The issue is especially important in congressional politics, where Super PACs have an opportunity to shape the institution every two years through congressional elections. Utilizing outside spending data from the Center for Responsive Politics, we analyze four U.S. House election cycles since the Supreme Court’s landmark 2010 Citizens United ruling (2012–2018). The likelihood that Super PACs invest in a race is strongly determined by the electoral context, even after controlling for the legislative influence of the incumbent member of Congress.

Special Elections

Special elections are a significant point of entry into the U.S. Congress. These electoral contests are not numerous, and their occurrence is largely random. They have attracted extraordinary attention from the national parties, political consultants, and the media when control of the House of Representatives is up for grabs in every regular election. Perhaps never have special elections drawn as much attention as during the first two years of the Trump presidency. This volume provides a detailed case study of the most expensive special House election ever conducted augmented with mini-cases exploring the other competitive special elections held during the first two years of the Trump era. These case studies are placed in the context of quantitative analyses of the almost three hundred House special elections held since World War II. Bullock and Owen find the factors associated with success in special elections are similar to those that help incumbents win term after term. They show that the party identification of the previous incumbent correlates strongly with the special election outcomes. Moreover, this volume explores whether the performance of the president’s party in special elections predicts the fortunes of the president’s party in the next general election. It finds that the numbers of losses by the president’s party or takeaways from the opposition is significantly related to the next election results. This work highlights not only the unique context and outcomes of special elections, but also their important role in shaping who enters, leads, and controls Congress.

Life Expectancy and Voting Patterns in 2018 US House of Representative Elections

IntroductionIn the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, voters in communities with recent stagnation or decline in life expectancy were more likely to vote for the Republican candidate than in prior Presidential elections. We aimed to assess the association between change in life expectancy and voting patterns in 2018 U.S. House of Representative elections.MethodsWith data on county-level life expectancy from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and voting data from Harvard Dataverse, we used weighted multivariable linear regression to estimate the association between the change in life expectancy from 1980 to 2014 and the proportion of votes for the Republican candidate in the 2018 House election.ResultsAmong 3,107 U.S counties, change in life expectancy at the county level was negatively associated with Republican share of the vote in 2018 House of Representative elections (parameter estimate −7.3, 95% confidence interval, −8.1 to −6.5). With the inclusion of state, sociodemographic, and economic variables in the model, the association was attenuated and no longer statistically significant (parameter estimate −0.9; 95% CI, −2.2 to 0.4).ConclusionCounties with a less positive trajectory in life expectancy were more likely to vote for Republican candidates in 2018 U.S. House of Representatives elections, but the association was mediated by demographic, social and economic factors.

Japan’s opposition will regroup in 2020

Subject The outlook for politics in Japan in 2020. Significance Domestic politics in 2020 will focus on four issues: reform of the country’s constitution, the competition to succeed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a possible snap lower house election and potential unification of the centre-left opposition parties ahead of it. Impacts Debates over constitution reform will likely result in a simple proposal to make Japan’s armed forces unambiguously constitutional. Abe’s promise to revise the constitution before the Tokyo Olympics next summer will be hard, if not impossible, to achieve. An expenses scandal currently dominating the headlines will embarrass Abe but is not a serious threat to him. Abe, now Japan’s longest-serving prime minister ever, is likely to step down in 2021.

The Turnout Myth

This book refutes the widely held convention that high turnout in national elections advantages Democratic candidates while low turnout helps Republicans. It examines over fifty years of presidential, gubernatorial, Senate, and House election data to show there is no consistent partisan effect associated with turnout. The overall relationship between the partisan vote and turnout for these offices is uncorrelated. Most significant, there is no observable party bias to turnout when each office or seat is examined through time. In some states, across the decades, gubernatorial and senatorial contests show a pro-Democratic bias to turnout; in others an increase in turnout helps Republicans. The pattern repeats for House elections during the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and through the 2010s. The analysis demonstrates that, within the range that turnout varies in American elections, it is the participation and abstention of easily influenced, less engaged citizens—peripheral voters—that move the outcome between the parties. These voters are the most influenced when the short-term forces of the election—differential candidate appeal, issues, scandals, and so forth—help the parties. Since these influences advantage Republicans as often as Democrats, the oscillation in turnout that coincides with pro-GOP and pro-Democratic forces leaves turnout rates inconsequential overall. The connections between short-term forces and the election cycle dominate the inconsistent partisan effects of turnout.

Japan’s 2019 upper house election: Solidifying Abe, the LDP, and return to a one-party dominant political system

Japan’s upper house, the House of Councillors, is a less powerful body than the House of Representatives, the lower house of the national Diet. Yet, electoral results of the upper house can have a significant impact on the government of the day, both for legislative purposes and for judging the credibility of the ruling party and its leader. This article analyses the July 2019 election and its likely impact on the Abe administration, and implications for Japan’s parliamentary democracy and party politics. The article argues that opposition forces are highly fragmented and weak, sustaining the LDP’s dominance in Japanese politics. Such a political landscape is welcomed by the ruling party and its leader, but continuing to entrench the hold on national governance by one dominant party is unhealthy for Japanese democracy.

Peranan Komisi Pemilihan Umum Kota Medan Dalam Memberikan Pendidikan Politik Bagi Penyandang Disabilitas (Studi Kasus Di Kota Medan)

The research is to know the extent to which the role of the General Elections Commission (KPU) the city of Medan in providing political education for persons with disabilities in the city of Medan and what obstacles or barriers of the General Elections Commission (KPU) the city of Medan in providing political education for persons with disabilities in the city of Medan.The method used is the method of qualitative. The results of the researchers is the Electoral Commission of the city of Medan it’s been carrrying out their duties, but is not maximized. The role of the General Elections Commission (the KPU) the city of Medan in providing political education for persons with disabilities in the city of Medan, which is held a discussion with persons with disabilities, making smart house election, election of access for persons with disabilities, and enhance cooperation with the organization and the persons with disabilities in the city of Medan.The obstacles faced by the General Elections Commission (KPU) the city of Medan in providing political education for persons with disabilities, the constraint of internal Commission is combining between material and methods in the provision of political education, and constraint of exsternal the obstacles in the process of data collection the number of persons with disabilities.From the results of these studies can be picked up the conclusion that the General Elections Commission (KPU) the city of Medan carry out its role in providing political education for persons with disabilities in the city of Medan, though not for a maximum.