Quantifying year-round nocturnal bird migration with a fluid dynamics model

To understand the influence of biomass flows on ecosystems, we need to characterize and quantify migrations at various spatial and temporal scales. Representing the movements of migrating birds as a fluid, we applied a flow model to bird density and velocity maps retrieved from the European weather radar network, covering almost a year. We quantified how many birds take-off, fly, and land across Western Europe to (1) track bird migration waves between nights, (2) cumulate the number of birds on the ground and (3) quantify the seasonal flow into and out of the study area through several regional transects. Our results identified several migration waves that crossed the study area in 4 days only and included up to 188 million (M) birds that took-off in a single night. In spring, we estimated that 494 M birds entered the study area, 251 M left it, and 243 M birds remained within the study area. In autumn, 314 M birds entered the study area while 858 M left it. In addition to identifying fundamental quantities, our study highlights the potential of combining interdisciplinary data and methods to elucidate the dynamics of avian migration from nightly to yearly time scales and from regional to continental spatial scales.

Modelling the flow of nocturnal bird migration with year-round European weather radar network

The movements of migratory birds constitute huge biomass flows that influence ecosystems and human economy, agriculture and health through the transport of energy, nutrients, seeds, and parasites. To better understand the influence on ecosystems and the corresponding services and disservices, we need to characterize and quantify the movements of migratory birds at various spatial and temporal scales.Representing the flow of birds in the air as a fluid, we applied a flow model to interpolated maps of bird density and velocity retrieved from the European weather radar network, covering almost a full year. Using this model, we quantify how many birds take-off, flight and land each night across Europe. Cumulating these daily fluxes of take-off and landing over time, we can summarize the change in the number of birds on the ground over the seasons and the entire year, track waves of bird migration between nights across Europe, and identify regions that see major biomass movements.The resulting numbers are impressive: We estimate that during the breeding season, 187 million (M) more birds (623M arriving and 436M leaving) reside in Western Europe (than during winter), while 452 M more birds departed in autumn (934M leaving and 482M arriving).Our study show-cases the enormous potential of combining interdisciplinary data and methods to elucidate the dynamics of avian migration at various spatial and temporal scales, and once more emphasizes the importance of weather radar data being made available from all European countries.

A Geostatistical Approach to Estimate High Resolution Nocturnal Bird Migration Densities from a Weather Radar Network

Quantifying nocturnal bird migration at high resolution is essential for (1) understanding the phenology of migration and its drivers, (2) identifying critical spatio-temporal protection zones for migratory birds, and (3) assessing the risk of collision with artificial structures. We propose a tailored geostatistical model to interpolate migration intensity monitored by a network of weather radars. The model is applied to data collected in autumn 2016 from 69 European weather radars. To validate the model, we performed a cross-validation and also compared our interpolation results with independent measurements of two bird radars. Our model estimated bird densities at high resolution (0.2 latitude–longitude, 15 min) and assessed the associated uncertainty. Within the area covered by the radar network, we estimated that around 120 million birds were simultaneously in flight (10–90 quantiles: 107–134). Local estimations can be easily visualized and retrieved from a dedicated interactive website. This proof-of-concept study demonstrates that a network of weather radar is able to quantify bird migration at high resolution and accuracy. The model presented has the ability to monitor population of migratory birds at scales ranging from regional to continental in space and daily to yearly in time. Near-real-time estimation should soon be possible with an update of the infrastructure and processing software.