scholarly journals Assessing the influence of climate on future wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel E. Baker ◽  
Wenchang Yang ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
C. Jessica E. Metcalf ◽  
Bryan T Grenfell
Keyword(s):  
High Susceptibility ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Open Question ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Epidemiological Parameters ◽  
Future Effect ◽  
Future Outbreak

High susceptibility has limited the role of the climate in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date. However, understanding a possible future effect of climate, as susceptibility declines and the northern-hemisphere winter approaches, is an important open question. Here we use an epidemiological model, constrained by observations, to assess the sensitivity of future SARS-CoV-2 disease trajectories to local climate conditions. We find this sensitivity depends on both the susceptibility of the population and the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical controls (NPIs) in reducing transmission. Assuming high susceptibility, more stringent NPIs may be required to minimize outbreak risk in the winter months. Our results imply a role for meteorological forecasts in projecting outbreak severity, however, reducing uncertainty in epidemiological parameters will likely have a greater impact on generating accurate predictions and reflects the strong leverage of NPIs on future outbreak severity.

scholarly journals Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel E. Baker ◽  
Wenchang Yang ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
C. Jessica E. Metcalf ◽  
Bryan T. Grenfell
Keyword(s):  
High Susceptibility ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Open Question ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Epidemiological Parameters

AbstractHigh susceptibility has limited the role of climate in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date. However, understanding a possible future effect of climate, as susceptibility declines and the northern-hemisphere winter approaches, is an important open question. Here we use an epidemiological model, constrained by observations, to assess the sensitivity of future SARS-CoV-2 disease trajectories to local climate conditions. We find this sensitivity depends on both the susceptibility of the population and the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing transmission. Assuming high susceptibility, more stringent NPIs may be required to minimize outbreak risk in the winter months. Our results suggest that the strength of NPIs remain the greatest determinant of future pre-vaccination outbreak size. While we find a small role for meteorological forecasts in projecting outbreak severity, reducing uncertainty in epidemiological parameters will likely have a more substantial impact on generating accurate predictions.

scholarly journals The role of the tropical West Pacific in the extreme Northern Hemisphere winter of 2013/2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 121 (4) ◽  
pp. 1698-1714 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A. G. Watson ◽  
Antje Weisheimer ◽  
Jeff R. Knight ◽  
T. N. Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
West Pacific ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

scholarly journals On the Linkages between the Tropospheric Isentropic Slope and Eddy Fluxes of Heat during Northern Hemisphere Winter

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (6) ◽  
pp. 1811-1823 ◽  
Author(s):  
David W. J. Thompson ◽  
Thomas Birner
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Synoptic Eddies ◽  
Eddy Fluxes ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

Abstract Previous studies have demonstrated the key role of baroclinicity and thus the isentropic slope in determining the climatological-mean distribution of the tropospheric eddy fluxes of heat. Here the authors examine the role of variability in the isentropic slope in driving variations in the tropospheric eddy fluxes of heat about their long-term mean during Northern Hemisphere winter. On month-to-month time scales, the lower-tropospheric isentropic slope and eddy fluxes of heat are not significantly correlated when all eddies are included in the analysis. But the isentropic slope and heat fluxes are closely linked when the data are filtered to isolate the fluxes due to synoptic (<10 days) and low-frequency (>10 days) time scale waves. Anomalously steep isentropic slopes are characterized by anomalously poleward heat fluxes by synoptic eddies but anomalously equatorward heat fluxes by low-frequency eddies. Lag regressions based on daily data reveal that 1) variations in the isentropic slope precede by several days variations in the heat fluxes by synoptic eddies and 2) variations in the heat fluxes due to both synoptic and low-frequency eddies precede by several days similarly signed variations in the momentum flux at the tropopause level. The results suggest that seemingly modest changes in the tropospheric isentropic slope drive significant changes in the synoptic eddy heat fluxes and thus in the generation of baroclinic wave activity in the lower troposphere. The linkages have implications for understanding the extratropical tropospheric eddy response to a range of processes, including anthropogenic climate change, stratospheric variability, and extratropical sea surface temperature anomalies.

scholarly journals The Role of Warm Conveyor Belts for the Intensification of Extratropical Cyclones in Northern Hemisphere Winter

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (10) ◽  
pp. 3997-4020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanin Binder ◽  
Maxi Boettcher ◽  
Hanna Joos ◽  
Heini Wernli
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Cyclone Center ◽  
Explosive Cyclones ◽  
Conveyor Belts ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Warm Conveyor Belts ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

Abstract The role of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) and their associated positive low-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies are investigated for extratropical cyclones in Northern Hemisphere winter, using ERA-Interim and composite techniques. The Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.68 implies a moderate to strong correlation between cyclone intensification and WCB strength. Hereby, cyclone intensification is quantified by the normalized maximum 24-h central sea level pressure deepening and WCB strength by the WCB air mass associated with the cyclone’s 24-h period of strongest deepening. Explosively intensifying cyclones typically have strong WCBs and pronounced WCB-related PV production in the cyclone center; they are associated with a WCB of type W2, which ascends close to the cyclone center. Cyclones with similar WCB strength but weak intensification are either diabatic Rossby waves, which do not interact with an upper-level disturbance, or cyclones where much of the WCB-related PV production occurs far from the cyclone center and thereby does not contribute strongly to cyclone deepening (WCB of type W1, which ascends mainly along the cold front). The category of explosively intensifying cyclones with weak WCBs is inhomogeneous but often characterized by a very low tropopause or latent heating independent of WCBs. These findings reveal that (i) diabatic PV production in WCBs is essential for the intensification of many explosive cyclones, (ii) the importance of WCBs for cyclone development strongly depends on the location of the PV production relative to the cyclone center, and (iii) a minority of explosive cyclones is not associated with WCBs.

scholarly journals The Role of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere winter to summer transition

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Barriopedro ◽  
Ricardo García-Herrera ◽  
Emiliano Hernández
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter
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