Climatic variability of the stratosphere-troposphere coupling during the last decades

В данной работе показано, как изменялось взаимодействие между тропосферой и стратосферой в последние десятилетия. Также оценено влияние таких явлений, как квазидвухлетнее колебание (КДК) на данное взаимодействие. Для этого было проанализировано распространение планетарных волн в атмосфере с использованием трехмерных потоков волновой активности, показана временная изменчивость потоков и линейный тренд. Кроме того, была оценена реакция тропосферы над Сибирью и Восточной Азией на КДК. The study of the variability of stratosphere-troposphere coupling during the last decades is considered. The influence of such phenomena as quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on this interaction was also estimated. For this, the propagation of planetary waves in the atmosphere was analyzed using three-dimensional wave activity fluxes. The temporal variability of fluxes and a linear trend was shown. In addition, the response of the troposphere over Siberia and East Asia to the QBO was assessed.

The IOD–ENSO Interaction: The Role of the Indian Ocean Current’s System

The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is one of the main modes characterizing the interannual variability of the large-scale ocean–atmosphere interaction in the equatorial zone of the World Ocean. A dipole manifests itself as an out-of-phase interannual fluctuation of the ocean–atmosphere characteristics in the western and eastern parts of the equatorial–tropical zone of the Indian Ocean. IOD can be a consequence of the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) events in the Pacific Ocean, or it can be independent of them and arise due to the Indian Ocean inherent processes. Earlier, it was suggested that the generation of the long planetary waves in the Indian Ocean by the ENSO events is one of the mechanisms of the ENSO impact on the IOD. However, quite often, such a mechanism is not the case and IOD is generated itself as an independent Indian Ocean mode. We hypothesized that this generation is due to the growing oceanic disturbances, as a result of instability of the system of Indian Ocean zonal currents in the vicinity of the critical layer, in which the phase velocity of Rossby waves is equal to the average velocity of the zonal currents. In the present work, the study of the features of the formation of the critical layer in the equatorial–tropical zone of the Indian Ocean is continued using different oceanic re-analyses and standard theory of the Rossby waves. As a result of comparison of different re-analyses data with the RAMA (The Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction) measurements, the operative re-analysis ORAS5 output of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on potential temperature, salinity, and the zonal component of the currents’ velocity for the period 1979–2018 was used. Monthly profiles of potential temperature, salinity, and the zonal component of the currents’ velocity were selected from the ORAS5 archive for the sections situated between 7.5–15.5° S and 50–100° E. From these data and for each month, using the standard theory of planetary waves, the phase velocity of the lowest baroclinic mode of the Rossby long waves was calculated and the critical layers were determined. For each critical layer, its length was calculated. The obtained time series of the length of the critical layers were compared to the variability of dipole mode index (DMI). It is shown that the majority of the cases of the IOD generation as inherent (independent on the Pacific processes) mode were accompanied by the critical layer formation in the region of interest. Usually, the critical layers occur in spring, one to two months before the onset of the positive IOD events. This indicates that the presence of instability in the system of the zonal currents can be a reason for the generation of IOD and the asymmetry of the amplitude of the dipole mode index between positive and negative events. During the extremely intense ENSO event of 1997–1998, which was accompanied by the strong IOD event, the critical layer in the equatorial–tropical zone of the Indian Ocean was absent. This ENSO event generated the oceanic planetary waves at the eastern edge of the Indian Ocean. Therefore, it is shown that the above mechanism of the ENSO–IOD interaction is a reality.

Eastward-propagating planetary waves in the polar middle atmosphere

According to Modern-Era Retrospective Research Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) temperature and wind datasets in 2019, this study presents the global variations in the eastward-propagating wavenumber 1 (E1), 2 (E2), 3 (E3) and 4 (E4) planetary waves (PWs) and their diagnostic results in the polar middle atmosphere. We clearly demonstrate the eastward wave modes exist during winter periods with westward background wind in both hemispheres. The maximum wave amplitudes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are slightly larger and lie lower than those in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Moreover, the wave perturbations peak at lower latitudes with smaller amplitudes as the wavenumber increases. The period of the E1 mode varies between 3–5 d in both hemispheres, while the period of the E2 mode is slightly longer in the NH (∼ 48 h) than in the SH (∼ 40 h). The periods of the E3 are ∼ 30 h in both the SH and the NH, and the period of E4 is ∼ 24 h. Despite the shortening of wave periods with the increase in wavenumber, their mean phase speeds are relatively stable, ∼ 53, ∼ 58, ∼ 55 and ∼ 52 m/s at 70∘ latitudes for E1, E2, E3 and E4, respectively. The eastward PWs occur earlier with increasing zonal wavenumber, which agrees well with the seasonal variations in the critical layers generated by the background wind. Our diagnostic analysis also indicates that the mean flow instability in the upper stratosphere and upper mesosphere might contribute to the amplification of the eastward PWs.

QUASI-STATIONARY PLANETARY WAVES IN MID-LATITUDE STRATOSPHERE–MESOSPHERE IN WINTER 2011-2020

The 10-year climatology (2011–2020) of quasi-stationary planetary waves in the mid-latitude stratosphere and mesosphere (40–50N, up to 90 km) has been analyzed. Longitude–altitude sections of geopotential height and ozone have been obtained using the Aura MLS satellite data. It is found that stationary wave 1 propagates into the mesosphere from the North American High and Icelandic Low, which are adjacent surface pressure anomalies in the structure of stationary wave 2. Unexpectedly, the strongest pressure anomaly in the Aleutian Low region does not contribute to the stationary wave 1 formation in the mesosphere. The vertical phase transformations of stationary waves in geopotential height and ozone show inconsistencies that should be studied separately.

Genesis of Upper-Tropospheric Anticyclones over the Asian−Western Pacific Sector from Tropical-extratropical Interaction Perspective

Upper-tropospheric anticyclones (UTACs) emerge throughout the seasons with changing location and intensity. Here, the formation mechanisms of these UTACs, especially in the Asian-Australian-western Pacific sector, were investigated based on the diagnosis of the vorticity equation as well as the contribution of the planetary waves. During June-July-August (JJA), a vigorous UTAC corresponding to the South Asian High (SAH) forms over South Asia, to the south of the Tibetan Plateau, where intense heating associated with the Asian summer monsoon rainfall and the resultant baroclinic Rossby response are the important physical processes. Meanwhile, the produced anticyclonic vorticity is further transported by the inter-hemispheric divergent wind toward the Southern Hemisphere (SH), creating the SH UTAC centered over the Maritime Continent. During December-January-February (DJF), two zonally elongated UTACs reside on each side of the equator (~10° poleward), mainly over the Maritime Continent-western Pacific sector. Upon a closer look at the NH winter, we observed that the northern parts of UTAC cannot be explained by this vorticity balance alone. Diagnosis of the wave activity flux indicated that planetary waves emanating from the cold Eurasian continent converges around the northern parts of the UTAC with its peak in the NH winter, which weakens the subtropical jet, thus generating UTAC. Configuration of the SH summer (DJF) UTAC bears resemblance with that of SAH. These results suggest that the creation of anticyclonic vorticity and its inter-hemispheric transportation as well as the propagation of planetary wave are the selectively important agents for the genesis of seasonally varying UTACs.

Impact of October Snow Cover in Central Siberia on the Following Spring Extreme Precipitation Frequency in Southern China

Spring extreme precipitation poses great challenges to agricultural production and economic development in southern China. From the perspective of prediction, the relationship between spring extreme precipitation frequency (SEPF) in southern China and preceding autumn snow cover over Eurasia is investigated. The results indicate that the southern China SEPF is significantly correlated with October snow cover in central Siberia. Corresponding to reduced October snow cover, the vertical propagation of planetary waves is suppressed, which leads to a strengthened stratospheric polar vortex from October to following December. The signal of the anomalous stratospheric polar vortex propagates downward to the surface, contributing to a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern in December. The southwesterlies in the northern Eurasia-eastern Arctic associated with the positive NAO induce sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara seas in January–February, which then tends to enhance the vertical propagation of planetary waves by constructively interfering with the climatological wavenumber-1 component. Therefore, the stratosphere polar vortex is significantly weakened in spring, which further contributes to a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like pattern in the troposphere. The negative spring AO is related to an anomalous cyclone in East Asia, which induces upward motion and moisture convergence in southern China, consequently providing favorable dynamic and moisture conditions for extreme precipitation in the region. The snow cover signal in central Siberia in the preceding October provides a potential source for the prediction of spring extreme precipitation variability in southern China with two seasons in advance.