Firm Entry and Exit during Recessions

We analyze shocks to productivity, collateral constraint (credit shock), firm operation, and labor disutility in a model of firm dynamics with entry and exit. Shocks to firm operation and labor disutility capture COVID-19 lockdowns. Compared to the productivity shock, the credit and the lockdown shocks generate larger changes in firm entry and exit. The credit shock accounts for lower entry, higher exit, and concentration of exit among young firms during the Great Recession. The lockdown shocks predict a large fall in entry and rise in exit followed by a sharp rebound. In both recessions, changes in entry and exit account for 10-20 percent of the fall in output and hours. Finally, we discuss how the modeling of potential entrants matters for the quantitative results.

Environmental Regulation and Exports: Evidence from the Comprehensive Air Pollution Policy in China

The impact of environmental regulation has been an important topic. Based on the Chinese Custom Database and China City Statistical Yearbook, this paper investigates the effect of environmental regulation on export values and explores potential mechanisms and heterogeneous effects. Taking advantage of China’s first comprehensive air pollution prevention and control plan, the Air Pollution Control in Key Zones policy, as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ the difference-in-differences method to examine the causal relationship between environmental regulation and exports. We find the statistically significant and negative effect of environmental regulation on exports at the city level. Moreover, we find that the potential mechanism is the change in export values caused by firm entry and exit, especially by exiters, rather than the change in the number of exporting firms in the city caused by firm entry and exit. In addition, we find the heterogeneous effects of environmental regulation based on the differences of environmental policy across cities and the Broad Economic Categories classification.

Household Inequality, Entrepreneurial Dynamism, and Corporate Financing

Economic theories posit conflicting hypotheses on how wealth inequality affects entrepre-neurial dynamism. We investigate the impact of wealth inequality on business dynamics by constructing local measures of household wealth inequality based on financial rents, home equity, and 1880 farmland. We then identify the effect of wealth inequality on entrepre-neurship by instrumenting it with land distribution under the 1862 Homestead Act. Wealth inequality decreases firm entry and exit, and the proportion of high-tech businesses across metropolitan statistical areas. Wealth inequality also lowers the supply of public goods, such as education. Growth in income per capita consequently lags.

Formalization and productivity: firm-level evidence from Viet Nam

Using a firm-level panel dataset on private small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Viet Nam’s manufacturing sector, this paper examines productivity dynamics of formal and informal firms. We decompose productivity changes into changes within and between formal and informal firms. We assess the contributions of firm entry and exit as well as informal–formal transitions. Our results show that productivity is considerably lower and misallocation more prevalent in the informal than in the formal sector. Yet, formalizing firms in Viet Nam make an important contribution to aggregate productivity growth among manufacturing SMEs, growing faster than other firms and increasing efficiency. We identify two ‘regimes’ of formalization. Until early 2010, more productive (previously) informal firms formalize. Policy changes and accelerated formalization then alter the characteristics of formalizers, as less productive firms become formal. While this formalization wave depresses average formal total factor productivity growth, the overall productivity effect is positive.