Long-Term Dynamics of Poverty Transitions in India

I use a stochastic model to explore the dynamics of poverty in India from 1952 to 2006 and find that temporal transitions into and out of poverty are common. Model outcomes suggest that transitions out of poverty outnumber transitions into poverty in recent times, but that there is still a nontrivial proportion of individuals transitioning annually into poverty, highlighting the economic fragility of those near the poverty line. There is also a marked persistence of poverty over time, and although this has been slowly declining, past poverty remains a good predictor of current poverty. Particularly concerning in this context are the income trajectories of those in the bottom decile of the income distribution for whom escape from poverty appears infeasible given extant income dynamics. Finally, the dynamics suggest that transitional and persistent poverty are distinct phenomena that require distinct policy responses involving both missing markets and state action.

An evolutionary perspective on the emergence and implementation of mission-oriented innovation policy: the example of the change of the leitmotif from biotechnology to bioeconomy

The design and implementation of innovation policy funding programmes has been the subject of scientific and political debate for decades. Especially the increasingly popular approach of mission-oriented innovation policies is a much discussed subject. The question of how missions arise, what rhetoric accompanies them and how they are eventually implemented has not yet been sufficiently clarified and specification is lacking. Whether mission-oriented innovation policy actually follows a strict top-down logic, or whether the policymaking process rather resembles a certain evolutionary scheme is questioned in this study. On the basis of the change within many policy strategy papers from biotechnology to a much broader bioeconomy, it is shown that, in reality, the transition does not follow a linear sequence. Neither excessive prioritisation nor neglect of a selected sector can be confirmed in this analysis. Within the bioeconomy, however, a clear change can be identified. Biotechnology funding was visibly reduced as part of the change of leitmotif while R&D increased in the agricultural sector in particular. Furthermore, it becomes clear that the issue of missing markets, which is predicted in theoretical studies, can also be confirmed empirically. So far, in terms of public involvement, little effort has been invested in the practical application of bioeconomical knowledge, which is why the intended transition towards bio-based economic activities is lagging behind expectations.

Production under input endogeneity and farm-specific risk aversion: evidence from contract farming and Bayesian method

Contract farming (CF) has been offered as a solution to missing markets in developing economies. However, little is known as to how the presence of CF affects production risk, technical efficiency and risk attitudes of the smallholder. This study investigates production risk, technical efficiency, output price uncertainty and risk attitudes of contract and independent farmers. Using a Bayesian estimation method and farm-level data from Nepal, we find that contract farmers are more risk-averse than the independent farmers. Contract farmers can increase output by reducing the scale more than independent farmers. We find that labour and capital are risk-reducing, while land and other inputs are risk increasing for both contract and independent farmers. Finally, independent growers consistently over-predict output prices.