Rainfall and drought characteristics for crop planning in Palamau region of Jharkhand

Daily rainfall data of 56 years (1956-2011) of Palamau district of Jharkhand have been considered to analyse the long term average and its temporal variability on weekly, monthly, seasonal and annual basis. The average annual rainfall at Palamau was 1138 mm with 34 per cent coefficient of variation indicating thereby that the rainfall was not much stable over the years. July was the highest rainfall recipient month (332 mm) followed by August (310 mm) during the monsoon period. Trend analysis on rainfall of past 56 years exhibited a decreasing pattern of 8.33 mm and 7.04 mm per year in annual and kharif season rainfall, respectively. Agricultural drought was most frequently observed in early (23-26 SMW) as well as late (37-40 SMW) stages of kharif crops. Meteorological droughts of different intensities, viz., mild, moderate and severe over the observed periods showed that station is prone to mild-moderate type of drought. Short duration, low water requiring but high value crops like maize, pulses, oilseeds and some vegetables can be opted for this region to minimize the production risk.

Risk Factors in Various Climates of Wheat Production in Western Iran: Experts’ Opinions

Agriculture is the origin of existence and survival in any society. However, this sector is always associated with risk and uncertainty, and farmers are faced with many challenges. Therefore, the main aim of this research was to explore the (production) risk factors of irrigated wheat production systems among farmers in Kermanshah province, Iran. The exploratory nature of this study on the one hand and the need for expert judgment on the other hand necessitated a Delphi research design. Thus, this study utilized a three-round Delphi technique. The population comprised of 10 subject-matter experts (SME) and 32 agricultural extension experts in two climates (warm and semi-arid and cold and moderate) in seven counties in Kermanshah province. A purposeful (complete) sample of 42 experts in the agricultural field participated in this study. Data were collected using a questionnaire designed on the basis of the Delphi technique. The findings indicated that, after three rounds of Delphi technique, the panel members reached a consensus on 75 factors which were categorized into biological, natural, managerial, and technological-structural groups for production risk. The results of this research provide useful insights for researchers, extension agents, and farmers.

Yields variability as a determinant of production risk in agriculture

Agricultural activity is exposed to a number of adverse external factors known as production risks, which affect the quantity and value of production. One of the measures of production risk assessment in crops production is yields variability. The aim of the study is to determine the scope of the variability of the yields of selected agricultural crops on the basis of various sources of data covering the years 2015–2019. The study uses aggregated official statistics data compiled by Statistics Poland, published in the Statistical Yearbook of Agriculture, and individual data from the Polish Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), which takes into account commercial farms. The analysis of the differences in crops variability determined on the basis of different sources of information was carried out using basic statistical parameters: the arithmetic mean, standard deviation and the coefficient of variation. The research shows that the variability of yields in Poland depends not only on the type of crops, but also on the location of the production. Moreover, it indicates a greater stability of crops production among commercial farms when compared with farms in general. The comparison of the values of the coefficient of variation calculated from individual data with the values calculated on the basis of the average yields indicates fundamental differences which should be taken into account when applying the variation coefficient to assess production risk and, consequently, to optimise insurance tools.

Production Risks and Benefits Corn-Cow Integration System

The data analysis used in this research is risk analysis, profit analysis and farming feasibility analysis. The corn-beef cattle integration system can provide great benefits, and a relatively small production risk. The risk of production in corn farming is greater than that of beef cattle (KV = 0.49<0.40). Meanwhile, the profit of corn farming is 10,027,029 IDR / season or 12,605,408 IDR / season / hectare with an R/C ratio of 3.12. The profit of the cattle business is 7,863,872 IDR / period or 1,669,831 / period / head with an R/C ratio of 1.25. So that the average profit of corn-cow integration farmers is 17,890,901 IDR.

Using Climate Information for Building Smallholder Resilience in India

Intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability is the specific climate-related production risk faced by smallholder rainfed farmers in India. For small holding rainfed farmers, access to reliable extended range and seasonal climate forecast (SCF) information could induce a set of adaptive risk reduction measures. The paper is an attempt to capture the experience of a pilot research study to understand the utility of SCF in generating risk-reducing decisions by players across the agricultural value chain in a semi-arid rainfed agroecosystem in Tamil Nadu, India. The results show that to realise the desired societal benefit of SCF, in addition to forecasts with improved predictive skills, appropriate spatial and temporal scale of the climate variables and effectiveness of the communication process is essential. Social equity in access to climate information across the agricultural value chain and ability and flexibility to adopt by the end users are also decisive factors that determine the effectiveness of climate information in reducing risk in farming. The experience also emphasises the need for strong institutional support to improve resource access and build the capacities of smallholders to translate informed decisions to actions at field level on risk-reducing responses.

Quantifying the prevalence of (non)-response to fertilizers in sub-Saharan Africa using on-farm trial data

Poor and variable crop responses to fertilizer applications constitute a production risk and may pose a barrier to fertilizer adoption in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Attempts to measure response variability and quantify the prevalence of non-response empirically are complicated by the fact that data from on-farm fertilizer trials generally include diverse nutrients and do not include on-site replications. The first aspect limits the extent to which different studies can be combined and compared, while the second does not allow to distinguish actual field-level response variability from experimental error and other residual variations. In this study, we assembled datasets from 41 on-farm fertilizer response trials on cereals and legumes across 11 countries, representing different nutrient applications, to assess response variability and quantify the frequency of occurrence of non-response to fertilizers. Using two approaches to account for residual variation, we estimated non-response, defined here as a zero agronomic response to fertilizer in a given year, to be relatively rare, affecting 0–1 and 7–16% of fields on average for cereals and legumes respectively. The magnitude of response could not be explained by climatic and selected topsoil variables, suggesting that much of the observed variation may relate to unpredictable seasonal and/or local conditions. This implies that, despite demonstrable spatial bias in our sample of trials, the estimated proportion of non-response may be representative for other agro-ecologies across SSA. Under the latter assumption, we estimated that roughly 260,000 ha of cereals and 3,240,000 ha of legumes could be expected to be non-responsive in any particular year.

Exploring the critical production risk factors for modular integrated construction projects

Purpose The factory production stage constitutes the bridge in the supply chains of modular integrated construction (MiC) projects. It embodies the fundamental differences between MiC and site-based construction. However, there is a poverty of knowledge of the uncertainties and risk events at the production stage. This study aims to investigate the critical production risk factors (PRFs) for MiC projects. Design/methodology/approach Comprehensive literature research and expert review identified and validated 22 candidate PRFs for MiC projects. A structured questionnaire survey was then used to gather opinions of domain experts in 18 countries on the relative impact of the validated PRFs for MiC projects. The collected data were analysed using multiple statistical techniques. Findings Statistical analysis identified nine critical PRFs for MiC projects. The top five include dimensional conflicts between modules during production; delays in production materials procurement; defective design; design information gap between designer and manufacturer; and limited capacity of manufacturers. Originality/value The study addressed the gap associated with identifying critical risk factors peculiar to the factory production stage of MiC projects. Its novelty lies in providing an opposite assessment of severities and prioritization of critical PRFs for MiC projects. The prioritized critical PRFs for MiC projects may inform resource allocation. Thus, it provides valuable information to MiC production specialists and project managers in their production risk planning and management strategies. The identified PRFs contribute to the theoretical checklist of MiC supply chain risk factors and may assist practitioners in assessing the severity levels of the PRFs of their MiC projects.

Big Entrance Hole Perforation as New Alternative Approach to Optimize Thru-Tubing Sand Control Technique While Maintaining Reservoir Deliverability for Tunu Gas Reservoir in Unconsolidated Sand Formation

Mahakam block with one of its gas fields, Tunu, has been developed for decades. Hundreds of wells were drilled to unlock layered sand reservoirs ranging from unconsolidated to consolidated reservoirs. Through field experience, well architecture is actively developing. The latest architecture, targeting shallow reservoirs only, is called Shallow Light Architecture (SLA). The well is completed with 3.5in production tubing cemented inside a 8.5in open-hole reservoir section. SLA is the default architecture for chemical sand consolidation (SCON) or thru-tubing screens as subsurface sand control. Perforation is performed by deep penetration (DP) hollow-carrier guns deployed with double-density to maximize open area and reduce sand production risk. DP charges were used based on the requirement to bypass near-wellbore damage, which is the same practice used in consolidated sand reservoir perforating. As more marginal reservoirs need to be unlocked, big entrance hole (BEH) perforation was initiated for the current sand control optimization alternative by SCON chemical reduction with shorter perforation intervals; and for thru-tubing metal screen performance improvement by placement in front of perforation entrance tunnels with minimum erosion risk. BEH was then studied as it has never been used previously in Mahakam with thru-tubing applications. Simulation and pilot well trials were explored to ensure that a short penetration would not significantly impact reservoir delivery on SLA wells. Inflow performance relationship (IPR) analysis resulted in slight additional drawdown compared to the calculated drawdown using DP at 2.5 MMscfd as an average gas rate in current thru-tubing sand control, which was considered acceptable from the operating envelope perspective. In total, BEH perforation was executed on ten wells with reservoir permeability range from 220 millidarcy (mD) to an extreme case of 3000 mD. Various SCON treatments were injected at optimized perforation lengths by cutting chemical costs up to 60% with sand-free production at a particular parameter and chemical type. On the other hand, in the application using screens, evaluation was not conclusive due to screen sizing issues for some installations. However, in-situ gas velocity could be reduced to the theoretical erosion velocity limit for a metal screen. This new approach to BEH charges utilization has a potential solution optimizing current SCON costs while also reducing erosion risk for the through tubing screen application to improve its performance. By using short penetration of charges, this approach was successfully implemented without jeopardizing reservoir's deliverability.

Studi Mitigasi Risiko untuk Meningkatkan Kinerja Subsistem Produksi Kentang di Kota Batu

Horticulture commodities, especially potatoes have a relatively high risk and economic value. Potato farming risks include production risk due to climate anomalies that cause pest and disease attacks, natural disasters, price risk, and other market risks. Knowledge of risk will direct farmers’ behavior on production activities and their farming performance. The objectives of this study were: (1) identify the risks from each potato farmer’s perceptions, (2) evaluate the priority risk for each potato farmer, (3) analyze the production performance of each potato farmer, and (4) compile a risk mitigation strategy potato farmer in Batu City. Research location choosen by multistage cluster sampling from subdistricts to villages that is a potato production’s center. The data were collected by structured interviews. The FAHP was used to analyze the risk faced by potato farmers. Measurement of potato production performance is carried out by analyzing technical efficiency using the DEA BCC model. The risk mitigation strategy is formulated considering risk priorities and the performance achieved by potato farmers. According to results, it is shows that collectively the highest risk comes from operational aspect by the score of 0,35. These operational risks can be mitigated by using desease-resistant varieties. The results of the potato production’s performance shows that 58,33% of the farmers are technically efficient. According to scale efficiency, 65% of farmers are operating on the IRS

The role of access to finance from different finance providers in production risks of horticulture in Indonesia

This paper aims to investigate the association between perceived production risk of horticultural farms and access to finance from different finance providers. The collection of data was conducted among 434 farmers in Indonesia particularly farmers produced mango, mangosteen, chili and red onion. Production risk was measured by the coefficient of variation, skewness, kurtosis and the 25th percentile. Depending on the risk measure, a lower production risk was found for commercial credit from banks and flexible payments of inputs to kiosks. Conversely, we did not find any lower production risk associated with finance provided by farmers’ associations and other sources such as family and friends. Results of this study are useful for policy makers, finance providers and supply chain actors in agriculture. For policy makers, the results of this study can help in designing policy to enhance farmers’ access to finance, whereas finance providers and supply chain actors, such as traders, obtain insight into whether their financial provisions effectively reduce production risk.