Prediction by Soft Computing, Planning, and Strategy Building of Aquatic Catch: Chilika Lagoon, Odisha, India

Introduction: The Chilika lagoon in south Odisha, India was ecologically degraded from 1985 onwards by reduction of its aquatic (fish + prawn + shrimp) catches along with reduction in salinity, hydraulic regime, water exchange, aquatic weeds invasion, and sediment influx. The aquatic catch was 8669MT in year 1985-1986 gradually reduced to 1274MT during 1995-1996 from Odisha Fisheries Dept. records which resulted in poor economic condition of ≈0,2million fishermen and they migrated to adopt other livelihood. One direct tidal inlet dredged (Sipakuda) and Naraj barrage in the apex of South Mahanadi Delta were the major hydraulic interventions made to regain hydraulic regime. After the hydraulic interventions, the eco system restored, and the aquatic catch surged but it was insufficient to livelihood sustenance for the fishermen community of the Chilika, so that they are forced for alternate occupation and migration. Methodologies: Fish catch data collected for 30 years and soft computing models linear regression, Multi Linear Perception (ANN), SMOorg (SVM) and the Random Forest algorithms (Weka Software) are used to predict the fish catch data of the lagoon for coming decade from 2020 to 2030. The effects of major hydraulic interventions are analyzed and the soft computing method of the fish and shrimp catch prediction of the Chilika has been attempted for the first time except some statistical approaches. Results: The Random Forest is found to be the preferred algorithm followed by the MLP model. The amount of catch remained around 12-13TMT if the variables and the present status of the lagoon is maintained. The combined effect of the Sipakuda Tidal inlet and the effective operation of the Naraj barrage have maintained the sustainable aqua catch. The present study shall be an immense help for the lake users and policy makers to augment aquatic catch, and alternate livelihood fishers community of the Chilika lagoon.

How to link modern and ancient barrier island systems: Dimensional comparisons and updated sedimentary facies models

<p>Existing depositional and facies models for ancient barrier island systems are primarily based on modern observations. This approach overlooks processes tied to geologic time scales, such as multi-directional motion, erosion, and reworking, and their resulting expressions in preserved strata. We have investigated these and other challenges of linking modern and ancient barrier islands through outcrop studies and through data compilation from the rock record compared to modern barrier island dimensions. Results emphasize key depositional and preservation processes, and the dimensional differences between deposits formed over geologic versus modern time scales. For example, when comparing deposits from individual barrier islands, thickness measurement comparisons between modern and ancient examples do not vary systematically, suggesting that local accommodation and reworking dictate barrier island thickness preservation. A complementary outcrop study focusing on paralic strata from the Upper Cretaceous Straight Cliffs Formation in southern Utah (USA) is used to update models for barrier island motion and preservation to include geologic time-scale processes. Barrier island deposits are described using four facies associations (FA): backbarrier fill (FA1), lower and upper shoreface (FA2), proximal upper shoreface (FA3), and tidal channel facies (FA4). Three main architectural elements (barrier island shorefaces, shoreface-dominated inlet fill, and channel-dominated inlet fill) occur independently or in combination to create stacked barrier island deposits. Barrier island shorefaces record progradation, while shoreface-dominated inlet fill records lateral migration, and channel-dominated inlet fill records aggradation within the tidal inlet. Barrier islands are bound by lagoons or estuaries and are distinguished from other shoreface deposits by their internal facies and outcrop geometry, association with backbarrier facies, and position within transgressive successions. Tidal processes, in particular, tidal inlet migration and reworking of the upper shoreface, also distinguish barrier island successions. In sum, these datasets demonstrate that improved depositional and facies models must consider multidirectional island motion, ravinement, erosion, inlet migration, and reworking when describing processes and predicting barrier island dimensions.</p>

When Is a Barrier Island Not an Island? When It Is Preserved in the Rock Record

Existing barrier island facies models are largely based on modern observations. This approach highlights the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of barrier island systems, but it overlooks processes tied to geologic time scales, such as multi-directional motion, erosion, and reworking, and their expressions as preserved strata. Accordingly, this study uses characteristic outcrop expressions from paralic strata of the Upper Cretaceous Straight Cliffs Formation in southern Utah to update models for barrier island motion and preservation to include geologic time-scale processes. Results indicate that the key distinguishing facies and architectural elements of preserved barrier island systems have very little to do with “island” morphology as observed in modern systems. Four facies associations are used to describe and characterize these barrier island architectural elements. Barrier islands occur in association with backbarrier fill (FA1) and internally contain lower and upper shoreface (FA2), proximal upper shoreface (FA3), and tidal channel facies (FA4). Three main architectural elements (barrier island shorefaces, shoreface-dominated inlet fill, and channel-dominated inlet fill) occur independently or in combination to create stacked barrier island deposits. Barrier island shorefaces record progradation, while shoreface-dominated inlet fill records lateral migration, and channel-dominated inlet fill records aggradation within the tidal inlet. Barrier islands are bound by lagoons or estuaries and are distinguished from other shoreface deposits by their internal facies and outcrop geometry, association with backbarrier facies, and position within transgressive successions. Tidal processes, in particular, tidal inlet migration and reworking of the upper shoreface, also distinguish barrier island successions. In sum, this study expands barrier island facies models and provides new recognition criteria to account for the complex geometries of time-transgressive, preserved barrier island deposits.

Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Nutrients in the Drowned Tidal Inlet under the Influence of Tides: A Case Study of Zhanjiang Bay, China

The tidal dynamics and the characteristics of pollutant migration in the drowned-valley tidal inlet, a typical unit of coastal tidal inlets, are strongly influenced by geomorphological features. Along with the development of society and the economy, the hydrodynamic and water quality environment of the tidal inlet is also becoming more disturbed by human activities, such as reclamation of the sea and the construction of large bridges. In this study, a typical drowned-valley tidal inlet, Zhanjiang Bay (ZJB), was selected for the establishment of a model via coupling of a tidal hydrodynamic model and water quality numerical model. This model can be used to simulate the migration and diffusion of pollutants in ZJB. The spatial and temporal variation processes of water quality factors of the bay under the influence of special geomorphic units was simulated at the tidal-inlet entrance, the flood/ebb tidal delta, and the tidal basin. The results show that ZJB has strong tidal currents that are significantly affected by the terrain. Under the influence of the terrain and tidal currents, the phosphorus and nitrogen concentration at the flood-tide and ebb-tide moments showed obvious temporal and spatial differences in the ebb-tide delta, tidal-inlet entrance, flood-tide delta, and tidal basin. In this study, we analyzed the response mechanism of the water quality environment to the drowned-valley tidal inlet, and this can provide theoretical guidance and a basis for decision-making toward protecting the ecology and water security of ZJB.