The impact of sea-level rise and basin area reduction on the cyclic behavior of tidal inlet systems

Abstract The increase in sea levels, as a result of climate change in territorial aspect will have a potential impact on two major issues – maritime zones and land territory. The latter goes into the heart of the theory of the state in international law as it requires us to confront the problem of complete and permanent disappearance of a State territory. When studying these processes, one should take into account the fundamental lack of appropriate precedents and analogies in international law, especially in the context of the extinction of the state, which could be used for guidance in this respect. The article analyses sea level rise impact on baselines and agreed maritime boundaries (in particular taking into account fundamental change of circumstances rule). Furthermore, the issue of submergence of the entire territory of a State is discussed taking into account the presumption of statehood, past examples of extinction of states and the importance of recognition in this respect.

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Long-term legacy of delayed climate mitigation in global glacier response

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12898 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Fabien Maussion ◽

Quentin Lejeune ◽

Ben Marzeion ◽

Matthias Mengel ◽

David Rounce ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Sea Level ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Delayed Response ◽

Glacier Change ◽

Mountain Glaciers ◽

Glacier Runoff ◽

The Impact

<p>Mountain glaciers have a delayed response to climate change and are expected to continue to melt long after greenhouse gas emissions have stopped, with consequences both for sea-level rise and water resources. In this contribution, we use the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to compute global glacier volume and runoff changes until the year 2300 under a suite of stylized greenhouse gas emission characterized by (i) the year at which anthropogenic emissions culminate, (ii) their reduction rates after peak emissions and (iii) whether they lead to a long-term global temperature stabilization or decline. We show that even under scenarios that achieve the Paris Agreement goal of holding global-mean temperature below 2&#8201;&#176;C, glacier contribution to sea-level rise will continue well beyond 2100. Because of this delayed response, the year of peak emissions (i.e. the timing of mitigation action) has a stronger influence on mit-term global glacier change than other emission scenario characteristics, while long-term change is dependent on all factors. We also discuss the impact of early climate mitigation on regional glacier change and the consequences for glacier runoff, both short-term (where some basins are expected to experience an increase of glacier runoff) and long-term (where all regions are expecting a net-zero or even negative glacier contribution to total runoff), underlining the importance of mountain glaciers for regional water availability at all timescales.</p>

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Contrasting facies patterns between river-dominated and symmetrical wave-dominated delta deposits

Journal of Sedimentary Research ◽

10.2110/jsr.2020.131 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 91 (3) ◽

pp. 262-295

Author(s):

BRIAN J. WILLIS ◽

TAO SUN ◽

R. BRUCE AINSWORTH

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Preferential Flow ◽

Return Flow ◽

Lateral Migration ◽

Littoral Drift ◽

Delta Front ◽

Reference Case ◽

Depositional Processes ◽

The Impact

Abstract Process-physics-based, coupled hydrodynamic–morphodynamic delta models are constructed to understand preserved facies heterogeneities that can influence subsurface fluid flow. Two deltaic systems are compared that differ only in the presence of waves: one river dominated and the other strongly influenced by longshore currents. To understand an entire preserved deltaic succession, the growth of multiple laterally adjacent delta lobes is modeled to define delta axial to marginal facies trends through an entire regressive–transgressive depositional succession. The goal is to refine a facies model for symmetrical wave-dominated deltas (where littoral drift diverges from the delta lobe apex). Because many factors change depositional processes on deltas, the description of the river-dominated example is included to provide a direct reference case from which to define the impact of waves on preserved facies patterns. Both systems display strong facies trends from delta axis to margin that continued into inter-deltaic areas. River-dominated delta regression preserved a dendritic branching of compensationally stacked bodies. Transgression, initiated by sea-level rise, backfilled the main channel and deposited levees and splays on the submerging delta top. Wave-dominated deltas developed dual clinoforms: a shoreface clinoform built as littoral drift carried sediment away from the river month and onshore, and a subaqueous delta-front clinoform composed of sediment accumulated below wave base. Although littoral drift in both directions away from the delta axis stabilized the position of the river at the shoreline, distributary-channel avulsions and lateral migration of river flows across the subaqueous delta top produced heterogeneities in both sets of clinoform deposits. Separation of shoreface and subaqueous delta-front clinoforms across a subaqueous delta top eroded to wave base produced a discontinuity in progradational vertical successions that appeared gradual in some locations but abrupt in others. Littoral drift flows away from adjacent deltas converged in inter-deltaic areas, producing shallow water longshore bars cut by wave-return-flow channels with associated terminal mouth bars. Transgression initiated by sea-level rise initially led to vertical aggradation of wave-reworked sheet sands on the subaqueous delta top and then retreating shoreface barrier sands as the subaerial delta top flooded. Pseudo inter-well flow tests responded to local heterogeneities in the preserved deposits. As expected, abandoned channels in the river-dominated case defined shoreline-perpendicular preferential flow paths and wave-dominated delta deposits are more locally homogeneous, but scenarios for development of more pronounced shore-parallel heterogeneity patterns for wave-influenced deltas are discussed. The results highlight the need to consider the dual clinoform nature of wave-dominated delta deposition for facies prediction and subsurface interpretation.

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Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-17-1559-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 17 (9) ◽

pp. 1559-1571 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Yann Krien ◽

Bernard Dudon ◽

Jean Roger ◽

Gael Arnaud ◽

Narcisse Zahibo

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Numerical Models ◽

Lesser Antilles ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Worst Case ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave–current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge – up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

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Determining Extreme Still Water Levels for Design and Planning Purposes Incorporating Sea Level Rise: Sydney, Australia

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos13010095 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 95

Author(s):

Phil J. Watson

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Water Level ◽

Sea Level ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Water Levels ◽

Extreme Value Analysis ◽

Tide Gauge Record ◽

Value Analysis ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

The Impact

This paper provides an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of the hourly water level record at Fort Denison dating back to 1915 to understand the statistical likelihood of the combination of high predicted tides and the more dynamic influences that can drive ocean water levels higher at the coast. The analysis is based on the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method using a fitted Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) function to estimate extreme hourly heights above mean sea level. The analysis highlights the impact of the 1974 East Coast Low event and rarity of the associated measured water level above mean sea level at Sydney, with an estimated return period exceeding 1000 years. Extreme hourly predictions are integrated with future projections of sea level rise to provide estimates of relevant still water levels at 2050, 2070 and 2100 for a range of return periods (1 to 1000 years) for use in coastal zone management, design, and sea level rise adaptation planning along the NSW coastline. The analytical procedures described provide a step-by-step guide for practitioners on how to develop similar baseline information from any long tide gauge record and the associated limitations and key sensitivities that must be understood and appreciated in applying EVA.

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Exceptional retreat of Novaya Zemlya's marine-terminating outlet glaciers between 2000 and 2013

10.5194/tc-2017-32 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

J. Rachel Carr ◽

Heather Bell ◽

Rebecca Killick ◽

Tom Holt

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Remotely Sensed ◽

Glacier Retreat ◽

Remotely Sensed Data ◽

Novaya Zemlya ◽

The Past ◽

Air Temperatures ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Novaya Zemlya (NVZ) has experienced rapid ice loss and accelerated marine-terminating glacier retreat during the past two decades. However, it is unknown whether this retreat is exceptional longer-term and/or whether it has persisted since 2010. Investigating this is vital, as dynamic thinning may contribute substantially to ice loss from NVZ, but is not currently included in sea level rise predictions. Here, we use remotely sensed data to assess controls on NVZ glacier retreat between the 1973/6 and 2015. Glaciers that terminate into lakes or the ocean receded 3.5 times faster than those that terminate on land. Between 2000 and 2013, retreat rates were significantly higher on marine-terminating outlet glaciers than during the previous 27 years, and we observe widespread slow-down in retreat, and even advance, between 2013 and 2015. There were some common patterns in the timing of glacier retreat, but the magnitude varied between individual glaciers. Rapid retreat between 2000–2013 corresponds to a period of significantly warmer air temperatures and reduced sea ice concentrations, and to changes in the NAO and AMO. We need to assess the impact of this accelerated retreat on dynamic ice losses from NVZ, to accurately quantify its future sea level rise contribution.

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Assessing the Impact of Sea Level Rise and Resilience Potential in the Caribbean

10.1596/36417 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Alessio Giardino ◽

Tim Leijnse ◽

Luisa Torres Duenas ◽

Panos Athanasiou ◽

Marjolijn Haasnoot

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

The Caribbean ◽

The Impact

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The impact of subsidence and sea level rise in the Wadden Sea: Prediction and field verification

Managing European Coasts - Environmental Science ◽

10.1007/3-540-27150-3_19 ◽

2005 ◽

pp. 355-363 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Joop M. Marquenie ◽

Jaap de Vlas

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Wadden Sea ◽

Field Verification ◽

The Impact ◽

And Sea Level

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A Framework for Understanding Adaptation by Manufacturing Industries

Natural Resources Management ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-0803-8.ch016 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 302-313

Author(s):

Saon Ray

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Temperature Rise ◽

Manufacturing Industries ◽

Climate Risk ◽

The Face ◽

Regulatory Barriers ◽

The Impact ◽

Medium Firms

This chapter discusses what constitutes adaptation responses by firms in the face of climate change. There are four integral components of adaptation activities undertaken by firms: assessment of risk, understanding of vulnerability, understanding the regulatory barriers to overcome the vulnerability, and, finally, adoption of policies to overcome the vulnerability. While it is easy to understand these components separately, their interdependencies make the overall picture more complicated. Also complicating the issue is the fact that most small and medium firms do not have the capacity and resources to predict the impact of such changes on their operations, and hence, to quickly make the adjustments necessary to overcome them. The response of firms also depends on the nature of the climate risk they face, whether it is sea-level rise, or temperature rise.

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