Evaluating the Influence of Climate Change on Sophora moorcroftiana (Benth.) Baker Habitat Distribution on the Tibetan Plateau Using Maximum Entropy Model

The ecosystems across the Tibetan Plateau are changing rapidly in response to climate change, which poses unprecedented challenges for the control and mitigation of desertification on the Tibetan Plateau. Sophora moorcroftiana (Benth.) Baker is a drought-resistant plant species that has great potential to be used for desertification and soil degradation control on the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche model, we characterized the habitat distribution of S. moorcroftiana on the Tibetan Plateau under both current and future climate scenarios. To construct a robust model, 242 population occurrence records, gathered from our field surveys, historical data records, and a literature review, were used to calibrate the MaxEnt model. Our results showed that, under current environmental conditions, the habitat of S. moorcroftiana was concentrated in regions along the Yarlung Tsangpo, Lancang, and Jinsha rivers on the Tibetan Plateau. Elevation, isothermality, and minimal air temperature of the coldest month played a dominant role in determining the habitat distribution of S. moorcroftiana. Under future climate scenarios, the increased air temperature was likely to benefit the expansion of S. moorcroftiana over the short term, but, in the long run, continued warming may restrict the growth of S. moorcroftiana and lead to a contraction in its habitat. Importantly, the Yarlung Tsangpo River valley was found to be the core habitat of S. moorcroftiana, and this habitat moved westwards along the Yarlung Tsangpo River under future climate scenarios, but did not detach from it. This finding suggests that, with the current pace of climate change, an increase in efforts to protect and cultivate S. moorcroftiana is necessary and critical to control desertification on the Tibetan Plateau.

Genetic Diversity Analysis and Potential Distribution Prediction of Sophora moorcroftiana Endemic to Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

Sophora moorcroftiana (Benth.) Baker is an endemic woody species distributed in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), a part of the world characterized by high altitude and cold weather. In this study, the genetic diversity of S. moorcroftiana was evaluated based on 300 representative samples of 15 populations using 20 polymorphic SSR markers, and its potential distribution was predicted according to 19 bioclimatic factors using MaxEnt modeling. Results showed the population genetic diversity of S. moorcroftiana was generally not high (around 0.5), and the range of variation was small (0.437–0.539). Altitude, rather than other environmental factors, was the key factor affecting the present genetic diversity. Moreover, due to climate change in the QTP, the suitable area is increasing and will continue to increase by 48.35%, 84.44%, 101.98%, and 107.30% in the four future periods of 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s, respectively, compared to the present, which is beneficial for S. moorcroftiana. These results will provide a theoretical basis for the development of germplasm conservation strategies for S. moorcroftiana and enrich information on the impacts of climate change on plants in the QTP.