An analysis of instabilities and limit cycles in glacier-dammed reservoirs
Abstract. Glacier lake outburst floods are common glacial hazards around the world. How big such floods can become (either in terms of peak discharge or in terms of total volume released) depends on how they are initiated: what causes the runaway enlargement of a subglacial or other conduit to start, and how big can the lake get before that point is reached? Here we investigate how the spontaneous channelization of a linked-cavity drainage system controls the onset of floods. In agreement with previous work, we show that floods only occur in a band of water throughput rates, and identify stabilizing mechanisms that allow steady drainage of an ice-dammed reservoir. We also show how stable limit cycle solutions emerge from the instability, a show how and why the stability properties of a drainage system with spatially spread-out water storage differ from those where storage is localized in a single reservoir or lake.