Generation of gravity waves from thermal tides in the Venus atmosphere

Gravity waves play essential roles in the terrestrial atmosphere because they propagate far from source regions and transport momentum and energy globally. Gravity waves are also observed in the Venus atmosphere, but their characteristics have been poorly understood. Here we demonstrate activities of small-scale gravity waves using a high-resolution Venus general circulation model with less than 20 and 0.25 km in the horizontal and vertical grid intervals, respectively. We find spontaneous gravity wave radiation from nearly balanced flows. In the upper cloud layer (~70 km), the thermal tides in the super-rotation are primary sources of small-scale gravity waves in the low-latitudes. Baroclinic/barotropic waves are also essential sources in the mid- and high-latitudes. The small-scale gravity waves affect the three-dimensional structure of the super-rotation and contribute to material mixing through their breaking processes. They propagate vertically and transport momentum globally, which decelerates the super-rotation in the upper cloud layer (~70 km) and accelerates it above ~80 km.

Astrobiologists are rational but not Bayesian

The search for biosignatures is likely to generate controversial results, with no single biosignature being clear proof of the presence of life. Bayesian statistical frameworks have been suggested as a tool for testing the effect that a new observation has on our belief in the presence of life on another planet. We test this approach here using the tentative discovery of phosphine on Venus as an example of a possible detection of a biosignature on an otherwise well-characterized planet. We report on a survey of astrobiologists' views on the likelihood of life on Enceladus, Europa, Mars, Titan and Venus before the announcement of the detection of phosphine in Venus' atmosphere (the Bayesian Prior Probability) and after the announcement (the Posterior Probability). Survey results show that respondents have a general view on the likelihood of life on any world, independent of the relative ranking of specific bodies, and that there is a distinct ‘fans of icy moons’ sub-community. The announcement of the potential presence of phosphine on Venus resulted in the community showing a small but significant increase in its confidence that there was life on Venus; nevertheless the community still considers Venus to be the least likely abode of life among the five targets considered, last after Titan. We derive a Bayesian formulation that explicitly includes both the uncertainty in the interpretation of the signal as well as uncertainty in whether phosphine on Venus could have been produced by life. We show that although the community has shown rational restraint about a highly unexpected and still tentative detection, their changing expectations do not fit a Bayesian model.