Relationship between geomagnetic storm development and the solar wind parameter ß

We have analyzed the dynamics of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters during the development of 933 isolated geomagnetic storms, observed over the period from 1964 to 2010. The analysis was carried out using the epoch superposition method at intervals of 48 hrs before and 168 hrs after the moment of Dst minimum. The geomagnetic storms were selected by the type of storm commencement (sudden or gradual) and by intensity (weak, moderate, and strong). The dynamics of the solar wind and IMF parameters was compared with that of the Dst index, which is an indicator of the development of geomagnetic storms. The largest number of storms in the solar activity cycle is shown to occur in the years of minimum average values (close in magnitude to 1) of the solar wind parameter β (β is the ratio of plasma pressure to magnetic pressure). We have revealed that the dynamics of the Dst index is similar to that of the β parameter. The duration of the storm recovery phase follows the characteristic recovery time of the β parameter. We have found out that during the storm main phase the β parameter is close to 1, which reflects the maximum turbulence of solar wind plasma fluctuations. In the recovery phase, β returns to background values β~2‒3.5. We assume that the solar wind plasma turbulence, characterized by the β parameter, can play a significant role in the development of geomagnetic storms.

Relationship between geomagnetic storm development and the solar wind parameter β

We have analyzed the dynamics of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters during the development of 933 isolated geomagnetic storms, observed over the period from 1964 to 2010. The analysis was carried out using the epoch superposition method at intervals of 48 hrs before and 168 hrs after the moment of Dst minimum. The geomagnetic storms were selected by the type of storm commencement (sudden or gradual) and by intensity (weak, moderate, and strong). The dynamics of the solar wind and IMF parameters was compared with that of the Dst index, which is an indicator of the development of geomagnetic storms. The largest number of storms in the solar activity cycle is shown to occur in the years of minimum average values (close in magnitude to 1) of the solar wind parameter β (β is the ratio of plasma pressure to magnetic pressure). We have revealed that the dynamics of the Dst index is similar to that of the β parameter. The duration of the storm recovery phase follows the characteristic recovery time of the β parameter. We have found out that during the storm main phase the β parameter is close to 1, which reflects the maximum turbulence of solar wind plasma fluctuations. In the recovery phase, β returns to background values β~2‒3.5. We assume that the solar wind plasma turbulence, characterized by the β parameter, can play a significant role in the development of geomagnetic storms.

Analytic Representation of Illuminance on the Earth Surface with Different Types and Conditions of Cloud Cover over the 11-Year Solar Activity Cycle

The article describes the analytical expression approximating experimental data on daily natural illuminance on the Earth surface with different types and conditions of cloud cover over the 11-year solar activity cycle within the solar altitude angle range of 0 ° to 90 °. The values of the direct, diffused, and total illuminance on the Earth surface with different types and conditions of the cloud cover and, to some extent, of the substrate were defined and summarised in tables. The data presented may be used as part of the visual perception studies, light and engineering calculations, architecture and construction practice, etc.

The terrestrial radiation belts as seen by BepiColombo during its flyby to Earth

<p>BepiColombo is a joint mission of the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) to the planet Mercury, that was launched in October 2018 and it is due to arrive at Mercury in late 2025. It consists of two spacecraft, the Mercury Planetary Orbiter (MPO) built by ESA, and the Mercury Magnetospheric Orbiter (MMO) built by JAXA, as well as a Mercury Transfer Module (MTM) for propulsion built by ESA. The cruise phase to Mercury will last ~7 years and constitutes an exceptional opportunity for studying the evolution of the solar wind, solar transients, as well as for planetary science and planetary space weather. Some important aspects to consider during the cruise are the close distances to the Sun that BepiColombo will face, the near half-solar activity cycle that will cover, as well as the several flybys to Earth, Venus and Mercury that will perform. So far, BepiColombo has accomplished a flyby to Earth in April 2020 and a flyby to Venus in October 2020, with a second flyby to Venus programmed for August 2021 and the first Mercury flyby in October 2021.</p><p>This work focuses on the flyby to Earth, and in particular, on the radiation belt observations performed by several instruments onboard BepiColombo. The flyby occurred on 10 April 2020 under relatively steady solar wind conditions. BepiColombo crossed the outer radiation belt on the terrestrial dawn side when moving from the day side to the night side. It skimmed the inner radiation belt on the night side sector after dawn, and then crossed again the outer belt at night (behind the dusk terminator region). Two instruments onboard the MPO spacecraft were able to take measurements of the belts: the BepiColombo Radiation Monitor (BERM) and the Solar Intensity X-Ray and Particle Spectrometer (SIXS). In this work, we report the particle species, radiation and energies observed by these two instruments, as well as we perform a cross-calibration of their detections, which is an important activity in preparation for joint-observations of the Hermean environment. Moreover, using magnetic field observations from MPO-MAG, we also investigate the trajectory of the particles within the radiation belts. This work is complemented with data from other missions that give us the state of the terrestrial system and frame our observations into the right context. It includes data from Cluster-II, Themis, and Arase/ERG missions.</p>

Automatic detection of magnetopause and bow shock crossing signatures in MESSENGER magnetometer data using Convolutional Neural Networks.

<p>During its 2011-2015 lifetime the MESSENGER spacecraft completed more than 4000 orbits around Mercury, producing vast amounts of information regarding the planetary magnetic field and magnetospheric processes. During each orbit the spacecraft left and re-entered the Hermean magnetosphere, giving us information about more than 8000 crossings of the bow shock and the magnetopause of Mercury's magnetosphere. The information obtained from the magnetometer data offers the possibility to study in depth the structures of the bow shock and magnetopause current sheets and their shapes. In this work, we take a step in this direction by automatically detecting the crossings of bow-shock and magnetopause. To this end, we propose a five-class problem and train a Convolutional Neural Network based classifier using the magnetometer data. Our key experimental results indicate that an average precision and recall of at least 87% and 96% can be achieved on the bow hock and magnetopause crossings by using only a small subset of the data. We also model the average three-dimensional shape of these boundaries depending on the external interplanetary magnetic field . Furthermore, we attempt to clarify the dependence of the two boundary locations on the heliocentric distance of Mercury and on the solar activity cycle phase. This work may be of particular interest for future Mercury research related to the BepiColombo spacecraft mission, which will enter Mercury’s orbit around December 2025.</p>

On the Prediction of Solar Cycles

This article deals with the prediction of the upcoming solar activity cycle, Solar Cycle 25. We propose that astronomical ephemeris, specifically taken from the catalogs of aphelia of the four Jovian planets, could be drivers of variations in solar activity, represented by the series of sunspot numbers (SSN) from 1749 to 2020. We use singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to associate components with similar periods in the ephemeris and SSN. We determine the transfer function between the two data sets. We improve the match in successive steps: first with Jupiter only, then with the four Jovian planets and finally including commensurable periods of pairs and pairs of pairs of the Jovian planets (following Mörth and Schlamminger in Planetary Motion, Sunspots and Climate, Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, 193, 1979). The transfer function can be applied to the ephemeris to predict future cycles. We test this with success using the “hindcast prediction” of Solar Cycles 21 to 24, using only data preceding these cycles, and by analyzing separately two 130 and 140 year-long halves of the original series. We conclude with a prediction of Solar Cycle 25 that can be compared to a dozen predictions by other authors: the maximum would occur in 2026.2 (± 1 yr) and reach an amplitude of 97.6 (± 7.8), similar to that of Solar Cycle 24, therefore sketching a new “Modern minimum”, following the Dalton and Gleissberg minima.

Deformation of the Earth’s crust: measurement methods, regularities, nature

Research subject. This paper investigates rock deformations and stress states in mineral excavation sites.Materials and research methods. On the basis of a 20-year geodeformational monitoring of natural stresses and deformations in the rock mass at mining sites in the Urals, carried out by the Laboratory of Geodynamics and Rock Pressure at the Institute of Geology and Geology of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, we propose a novel structure of natural stress fields with reference to their change over time. Measuring instruments should be calibrated using standards of length and weight, including surveying tape measures, tapes, wires of various chemical composition, light and radio-range finders.Results. For the mining sites under study, the parameters of the variable component of stress fields with a chronological reference were determined, along with a forecast of loads both during preparatory and mining stages up to 2022. The experiments showed that, along with lithostatic (gravitational) and tectonic stresses, it is necessary to distinguish variable “astrophysical” rock stresses due to the cyclic expansion and contraction of the Earth.Conclusions. Using available measurements obtained during the most recent 11-year nanocycle of solar activity, regularities in the formation of rock deformations and stresses were revealed. A forecast of natural stresses with an increase in variable “astrophysical” stresses in the upcoming solar activity cycle was made. Measurements of rock deformations are currently performed using methods based on various physical principles. The results obtained thus far are relative, not permitting to judge about absolute values. The numerical values of dozens of fundamental physical constants are also variable. The international community of scientists should develop a mechanism to track changes in their magnitude over time.

They do change after all: 25 yr of GONG data reveal variation of p-mode energy supply rates

ABSTRACT It has been shown over and over again that the parameters of solar p modes vary through the solar activity cycle: frequencies, amplitudes, lifetimes, energies. However, so far, the rates at which energy is supplied to the p modes have not been detected to be sensitive to the level of magnetic activity. We set out to re-inspect their temporal behaviour over the course of the last two Schwabe cycles. For this, we use Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) p-mode parameter tables. We analyse the energy supply rates for modes of harmonic degrees l = 0–150 and average over the azimuthal orders and, subsequently, over modes in different parameter ranges. This averaging greatly helps in reducing the noise in the data. We find that energy supply rates are anticorrelated with the level of solar activity, for which we use the F10.7 index as a proxy. Modes of different mode frequency and harmonic degrees show varying strengths of anticorrelation with the F10.7 index, reaching as low as r = −0.82 for low frequency modes with l = 101–150. In this first dedicated study of solar p-mode energy supply rates in GONG data, we find that they do indeed vary through the solar cycle. Earlier investigations with data from other instruments were hindered by being limited to low harmonic degrees or by the data sets being too short. We provide tables of time-averaged energy supply rates for individual modes as well as for averages over disjunct frequency bins.

Automatic detection of magnetopause and bow shock crossing signatures in MESSENGER magnetometer data

<p>The magnetosphere of Mercury is rather small and highly dynamic, due to its weak internal magnetic field and its close proximity to the Sun. The changing solar wind conditions principally determine the locations of both the Hermean bow shock and magnetopause. In 2011 – 2015 MESSENGER spacecraft completed more than 4000 orbits around Mercury, thus giving a data of more than 8000 crossings of bow shock and magnetopause of the planet. This makes it possible to study in detail the bow shock, the magnetopause and the magnetosheath structures.</p> <p>In this work, we determine crossings of the bow shock and the magnetopause of Mercury by applying machine learning methods to the MESSENGER magnetometer data. We try to identify the crossings for the complete orbital mission and model the average three-dimensional shape of these boundaries depending on the external interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Further, we try to clarify the dependence of the two boundary locations on the heliocentric distance of Mercury and on the solar activity cycle phase. Also, we study the effect of the IMF partial penetration into the Hermean magnetosphere. The results are compared with the obtained previously in other works.</p> <p>This work may be of interest for future Mercury research related to the BepiColombo spacecraft mission, which will enter the orbit around the planet at December 2025.</p>