Shaken and Stirred: When Bond Meets Suess–de Vries and Gnevyshev–Ohl

AbstractWe argue that the most prominent temporal features of the solar dynamo, in particular the Hale cycle, the Suess–de Vries cycle (associated with variations of the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule), Gleissberg-type cycles, and grand minima can all be explained by combined synchronization with the 11.07-year periodic tidal forcing of the Venus–Earth–Jupiter system and the (mainly) 19.86-year periodic motion of the Sun around the barycenter of the solar system. We present model simulations where grand minima, and clusters thereof, emerge as intermittent and non-periodic events on millennial time scales, very similar to the series of Bond events which were observed throughout the Holocene and the last glacial period. If confirmed, such an intermittent transition to chaos would prevent any long-term prediction of solar activity, notwithstanding the fact that the shorter-term Hale and Suess–de Vries cycles are clocked by planetary motion.

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LONG-TERM RATES OF FAULTING DERIVED FROM COSMOGENIC NUCLIDES AND SHORT-TERM VARIATIONS CAUSED BY GLACIAL-INTERGLACIAL VOLUME CHANGES OF GLACIERS AND LAKES

International Journal of Modern Physics B ◽

10.1142/s0217979206033255 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 20 (03) ◽

pp. 261-276 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

RALF HETZEL ◽

ANDREA HAMPEL

Keyword(s):

Slip Rate ◽

Alluvial Fan ◽

Glacial Period ◽

Last Glacial Period ◽

Slip Rates ◽

The Holocene ◽

Last Glacial ◽

River Terraces ◽

The Last Glacial

Seismic hazard evaluations on major faults in Earth's crust are based on their slip histories, which reflect the frequency of earthquakes that ruptured a fault in the past. On a 100 000-year timescale, the slip rate of a fault can be determined by dating geomorphic surfaces that are offset by a fault. Application of this method to alluvial fan surfaces and river terraces offset by thrust faults in Tibet yields long-term slip rates of less than 1mm/a. Slip rates on a 10 000-year timescale are derived from paleoseismologic data and document that faults experience considerable slip rate variations on timescales of 100 to 1000 years. In particular, slip rates are often considerable higher in the present interglacial, the Holocene, than during the last glacial period, the Late Pleistocene. The causes of this behavior have remained enigmatic but their assessment is essential for an accurate evaluation of a fault's past and future seismicity. Numerical experiments show that the retreat of lakes and glaciers at the end of the last glacial period can cause an increase in the Holocene slip rate of a fault. Such a correlation between enhanced seismicity and climate-driven mass fluctuations on Earth's surface is best documented for the Wasatch Fault, Utah.

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Long-term prediction of sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration based on the combination of spatio-temporal features

Water Research ◽

10.1016/j.watres.2022.118040 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. 118040

Author(s):

Liu Na ◽

Chen Shaoyang ◽

Cheng Zhenyan ◽

Wang Xing ◽

Xiao Yun ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Chlorophyll A ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Chlorophyll A Concentration ◽

Term Prediction ◽

Temporal Features ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Long Term Prediction

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Pleistocene ice and paleo-strain rates at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica

Quaternary Research ◽

10.1016/j.yqres.2007.07.013 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 68 (3) ◽

pp. 303-313 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

S.M. Aciego ◽

K.M. Cuffey ◽

J.L. Kavanaugh ◽

D.L. Morse ◽

J.P. Severinghaus

Keyword(s):

Strain Rates ◽

Ice Dynamics ◽

Last Glacial Period ◽

The North ◽

Taylor Glacier ◽

Isotope Analyses ◽

Sampling Transect ◽

Longitudinal Strain Rate ◽

The Last Glacial

AbstractIce exposed in ablation zones of ice sheets can be a valuable source of samples for paleoclimate studies and information about long-term ice dynamics. We report a 28-km long stable isotope sampling transect along a flowline on lower Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, and show that ice from the last glacial period is exposed here over tens of kilometers. Gas isotope analyses on a small number of samples confirm our age hypothesis. These chronostratigraphic data contain information about past ice dynamics and in particular should be sensitive to the longitudinal strain rate on the north flank of Taylor Dome, averaged over millennia. The imprint of climatic changes on ice dynamics may be discernible in these data.

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On the Role of Volcanism in Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles

10.5194/cp-2020-160 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Johannes Lohmann ◽

Anders Svensson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Ice Cores ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Abrupt Climate Change ◽

Last Glacial Period ◽

Large Volcanic Eruptions ◽

The Last Glacial

Abstract. A significant influence of major volcanic eruptions on regime shifts and long-term climate variability has been suggested previously. But a statistical assessment of this has been hampered by inaccurate synchronization of large volcanic eruptions to changes in past climate. Here, this is achieved by combining a new record of bipolar volcanism from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores with records of abrupt climate change derived from the same ice cores. We show that at > 99 % confidence bipolar volcanic eruptions occurred more frequently than expected by chance just before the onset of Dansgaard-Oeschger events, the most prominent large-scale abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period. Out of 20 climate change events in the 12–60 ka period, 5 (7) occur within 20 (50) years after a bipolar eruption. Thus, such large eruptions may act as short-term triggers for large-scale abrupt climate change, and may explain part of the variability of Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles.

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Long-Term Prediction of Some Officer-Effectiveness Measures from Aptitude Tests

PsycEXTRA Dataset ◽

10.1037/e594882009-001 ◽

1958 ◽

Author(s):

R. L. Thorndike ◽

Elizabeth P. Hagen

Keyword(s):

Aptitude Tests ◽

Term Prediction ◽

Long Term Prediction

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Introduction: Kinship Bereavement in Later Life

OMEGA - Journal of Death and Dying ◽

10.2190/bd9q-rqyb-1x18-9evp ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 35 (1) ◽

pp. 1-7 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Brian De Vries

Keyword(s):

Adult Child ◽

Later Life ◽

Short Term ◽

Traumatic Grief ◽

Death Of A Parent ◽

De Vries ◽

Longitudinal Effects ◽

Analysis Of Variation

This article introduces a volume devoted to the examination of later-life bereavement: an analysis of variation in cause, course, and consequence. Six articles address and represent this variation and comprise this volume: 1) Prigerson et al. present case histories of the traumatic grief of spouses; 2) Hays et al. highlight the bereavement experiences of siblings in contrast to those spouses and friends; 3) Moss et al. address the role of gender in middle-aged children's responses to parent death; 4) Bower focuses on the language adopted by these adult children in accepting the death of a parent; 5) de Vries et al. explore the long-term, longitudinal effects on the psychological and somatic functioning of parents following the death of an adult child; and 6) Fry presents the short-term and longitudinal reactions of grandparents to the death of a grandchild. A concluding article is offered by de Vries stressing both the unique and common features of these varied bereavement experiences touching on some of the empirical issues and suggesting potential implications and applications.

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Spatial variation of East Asian winter monsoon evolution between northern and southern China since the last glacial maximum

Quaternary Research ◽

10.1017/qua.2020.101 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-14

Author(s):

Qin Li ◽

Haibin Wu ◽

Jun Cheng ◽

Shuya Zhu ◽

Chunxia Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽

Southern China ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Northern China ◽

Winter Monsoon ◽

Asian Winter Monsoon ◽

Spatial Differences ◽

The Last Glacial Maximum ◽

The Last Glacial

Abstract The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is one of the most dynamic components of the global climate system. Although poorly understood, knowledge of long-term spatial differences in EAWM variability during the glacial–interglacial cycles is important for understanding the dynamic processes of the EAWM. We reconstructed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the EAWM since the last glacial maximum (LGM) using a comparison of proxy records and long-term transient simulations. A loess grain-size record from northern China (a sensitive EAWM proxy) and the sea surface temperature gradient of an EAWM index in sediments of the southern South China Sea were compared. The data–model comparison indicates pronounced spatial differences in EAWM evolution, with a weakened EAWM since the LGM in northern China but a strengthened EAWM from the LGM to the early Holocene, followed by a weakening trend, in southern China. The model results suggest that variations in the EAWM in northern China were driven mainly by changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, whereas orbital insolation and ice sheets were important drivers in southern China. We propose that the relative importance of insolation, ice sheets, and atmospheric CO2 for EAWM evolution varied spatially within East Asia.

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Insights into continental temperatures in the northwestern Black Sea area during the Last Glacial period using branched tetraether lipids

Quaternary Science Reviews ◽

10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.11.013 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 84 ◽

pp. 98-108 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Lise Sanchi ◽

Guillemette Ménot ◽

Edouard Bard

Keyword(s):

Black Sea ◽

Glacial Period ◽

Last Glacial Period ◽

Last Glacial ◽

Tetraether Lipids ◽

Sea Area ◽

The Last Glacial

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Novel robust time series analysis for long-term and short-term prediction

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-91327-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Hiroshi Okamura ◽

Yutaka Osada ◽

Shota Nishijima ◽

Shinto Eguchi

Keyword(s):

Robust Regression ◽

Simulated Data ◽

New Method ◽

Short Term ◽

Least Absolute Deviations ◽

Term Prediction ◽

Regression Approach ◽

Short Term Prediction ◽

Long Term Prediction

AbstractNonlinear phenomena are universal in ecology. However, their inference and prediction are generally difficult because of autocorrelation and outliers. A traditional least squares method for parameter estimation is capable of improving short-term prediction by estimating autocorrelation, whereas it has weakness to outliers and consequently worse long-term prediction. In contrast, a traditional robust regression approach, such as the least absolute deviations method, alleviates the influence of outliers and has potentially better long-term prediction, whereas it makes accurately estimating autocorrelation difficult and possibly leads to worse short-term prediction. We propose a new robust regression approach that estimates autocorrelation accurately and reduces the influence of outliers. We then compare the new method with the conventional least squares and least absolute deviations methods by using simulated data and real ecological data. Simulations and analysis of real data demonstrate that the new method generally has better long-term and short-term prediction ability for nonlinear estimation problems using spawner–recruitment data. The new method provides nearly unbiased autocorrelation even for highly contaminated simulated data with extreme outliers, whereas other methods fail to estimate autocorrelation accurately.

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