Growth Econometrics

Growth econometrics is the application of statistical methods to the study of economic growth and levels of national output or income per head. Researchers often seek to understand why growth rates differ across countries. The field developed rapidly in the 1980s and 1990s, but the early work often proved fragile. Cross-section analyses are limited by the relatively small number of countries in the world and problems of endogeneity, parameter heterogeneity, model uncertainty, and cross-section error dependence. The long-term prospects look better for approaches using panel data. Overall, the quality of the evidence has improved over time, due to better measurement, more data, and new methods. As longer spans of data become available, the methods of growth econometrics will shed light on fundamental questions that are hard to answer any other way.

Estudio econométrico del crecimiento económico de México, para el periodo de 1994 a 2017, en función de nueve variables explicativas.

Localización: Cortazar, Guanajuato México, ISSN Electrónico 2007-977X, No. 9 (Septiembre - Diciembre), 2018, págs. 1 - 14Idioma: EspañolTitulos paralelos:ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF MEXICO’S ECONOMIC GROWTH FROM 1994 TO 2017, EXPLAINED BY NINE EXPLANATORY VARIABLESResumen:El objetivo de esta investigación es analizar el crecimiento económico de México en función de nueve variables explicativas. Los datos usados son anuales provenientes del Banco mundial, Infosel, OCDE, Inegi y Banxico. El análisis se realizó con un modelo econométrico cuyos resultados pudiesen apoyar el establecimiento de polí­ticas públicas orientadas a resolver el grave problema de la polarización económica.Palabras clave: Crecimiento económico, Econometrí­a, Finanzas públicas, Economí­a Polí­tica de México, Métodos multivariados. Abstract: The objective of this research is quantify the determinants of Mexico’s economic growth. The data bases used were World Bank, Infos el, OECD, Inegi and Banxico’s platform respectively. Then an econometric model was constructed (this model includes 9 variables). The results obtained will support the establishment of policies and allocation of public resources for decrease economic polarization. Keywords: Economic growth, Econometrics, Public finances, Political economy of Mexico, Multivariate methods.

GROWTH ECONOMETRICS IN THE TROPICS: WHAT INSIGHTS FOR SOUTHEAST ASIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT?

This paper attempts to distil the key conclusions from the very large literature on the empirics of growth and to apply them to the development record of the five major Southeast Asian economies for which we have reasonably long-term data — Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. These five display a considerable range of development outcomes, ranging from consistently high growth, to episodes of boom and crisis, and to low average growth. After estimating a series of general empirical models from a large sample of countries, we examine how well these fit the observed outcomes in these particular Southeast Asian countries. Our broad finding is that the average model does reasonably well in explaining outcomes in Singapore and Thailand, but that the residuals for Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines are quite large and persistent across different specifications.