Stock collapse and its effect on species interactions: cod and herring in the Norwegian-Barents Seas system as an example

Both the Norwegian Spring Spawning herring (Clupea harengus) and the Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) are examples of how the overexploitation of marine fish populations was leading to a strong reduction even so stock collapse, with a strong decline in the associated fisheries, followed by a recovery. Cod and herring are both part of the Barents Sea ecosystem, which experienced major warming events in the early (1920-1940) and late 20th century. While the collapse or near collapse of these stocks seems to be linked to instability created by overfishing and climate, the difference of population dynamics before and after is not fully understood. In particular, it is unclear how the changes in population dynamics before and after the collapses are associated with biotic interactions. The combination of the availability of unique long-term time series for herring and cod makes it a well-suited study system to investigate the effects of collapse. We examine how species interactions may differently affect the herring and cod population dynamic before and after a collapse. Particularly we explore, using a GAM modelling approach, how herring could affect cod and reciprocally. We found that the effect on herring of cod biomass that was generally positive (i.e., covariation) became negative after the collapse (i.e., predation or competition). Likewise a change occurred for the cod, the juvenile herring biomass that had no effect before the collapse had a negative one after. Our results indicate that population collapses may lead to altered inter-specific interactions as well as altered response to abiotic environmental variations. While the stocks are at similar abundance levels before and after the collapses the system is potentially different in its functioning and may require different management action.

Optimal shape of the harvest control rule for different fishery management objectives

To determine the optimal shape of the harvest control rule (HCR) achieving common fisheries management objectives (maximizing the average catch, reducing the deviation of yields, and avoiding stock collapse) and ensure robustness to observation errors, we estimate the optimal values of biological reference points (BRPs) composing the HCR. While traditional HCRs usually consist of three BRPs based on the fishing mortality coefficient (F3-HCR), we introduce an alternative HCR defined by 21 BRPs based on the catch levels (C21-HCR) to cover various possible shapes of HCR including smooth ones. We compare the shape and the performance between the optimal C21-HCR and the optimal F3-HCR and conclude that the optimal HCR can be composed of the gradual combination of the basic strategies: the constant escapement strategy, the constant harvest rate (CHR) strategy, and the constant catch strategy. However, the current F3-HCR does not necessarily allow this combination and generally returns lower performance levels than the optimal C21-HCR (since the basic strategy is confined to CHR) excluding the range of low biomass. This result will provide a clear perspective to improve HCR according to the magnitude of assessment errors and to compromise multiple fisheries management objectives when various stakeholders are involved.

Risks and benefits of catching pretty good yield in multispecies mixed fisheries

Multispecies mixed fisheries catch ecologically interacting species with the same gears at the same time. We used an ensemble of size-based multispecies models to investigate the effects of different rates of fishing mortality (F) and fleet configurations on yield, biomass, risk of collapse and community structure. Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and FMSY for 21 modelled species’ populations in the North Sea were defined at the Nash equilibrium, where any independent change in F for any species would not increase that species’ MSY. Fishing mortality ranges leading to “Pretty Good Yield” (F-PGY), by species, were defined as ranges yielding ≥0.95 × MSY. Weight and value of yield from the entire fishery increased marginally when all species were fished at the upper end of F-PGY ranges rather than at FMSY, but risk of species’ collapse and missing community targets also increased substantially. All risks fell markedly when fishing at the lower end of F-PGY ranges, but with small impacts on total fishery yield or value. While fishing anywhere within F-PGY ranges gives managers flexibility to manage trade-offs in multispecies mixed fisheries, our results suggest high long-term yields and disproportionately lower risks of stock collapse are achieved when F ≤ FMSY for all component stocks.

Measurement uncertainty matters: ecological management using POMDPs

Over the past 30 years, researchers have used various approximations to address the impact of measurement uncertainty on optimal management policy.This literature has consistently suggested the counter-intuitive proposition that increasing harvest levels in the presence of measurement error is often optimal. Here, we use state-of-the art algorithms for Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) to provide the first complete solution to this classic problem, and demonstrate that contrary to previous work, the resulting policy is usually more conservative than without measurement error. We demonstrate that management which underestimates the measurement error results in both low economic returns and high frequency of stock collapses, while overestimating the role of measurement error can still result in nearly-optimal economic performance while avoiding stock collapse.

Assessing fishery and ecological consequences of alternate management options for multispecies fisheries

Demands for management advice on mixed and multispecies fisheries pose many challenges, further complicated by corresponding requests for advice on the environmental impacts of alternate management options. Here, we develop, and apply to North Sea fisheries, a method for collectively assessing the effects of, and interplay between, technical interactions, multispecies interactions, and the environmental effects of fishing. Ecological interactions involving 21 species are characterized with an ensemble of 188 plausible parameterizations of size-based multispecies models, and four fleets (beam trawl, otter trawl, industrial, and pelagic) characterized with catch composition data. We use the method to evaluate biomass and economic yields, alongside the risk of stock depletion and changes in the value of community indicators, for 10 000 alternate fishing scenarios (combinations of rates of fishing mortality F and fleet configuration) and present the risk vs. reward trade-offs. Technical and multispecies interactions linked to the beam and otter trawl fleets were predicted to have the strongest effects on fisheries yield and value, risk of stock collapse and fish community indicators. Increasing beam trawl effort led to greater increases in beam trawl yield when otter trawl effort was low. If otter trawl effort was high, increases in beam trawl effort led to reduced overall yield. Given the high value of demersal species, permutations of fleet effort leading to high total yield (generated primarily by pelagic species) were not the same as permutations leading to high catch values. A transition from F for 1990 to 2010 to FMSY, but without changes in fleet configuration, reduced risk of stock collapse without affecting long-term weight or value of yield. Our approach directly addresses the need for assessment methods that treat mixed and multispecies issues collectively, address uncertainty, and take account of trade-offs between weight and value of yield, state of stocks and state of the environment.