Evaluating Bayesian radiocarbon-dated event-count [REC] models for the study of long-term human and environmental processes

Chronological uncertainty complicates attempts to use radiocarbon dates as proxies for processes like human population growth/decline, forest fires, and marine ingression. Established approaches involve turning databases of radiocarbon-date densities into single summary proxies that cannot fully account for chronological uncertainty. Here, I use simulated data to explore an alternate Bayesian approach that instead models the data as what they are, namely radiocarbon-dated event-counts. The approach involves assessing possible event-count sequences by sampling radiocarbon date densities and then applying MCMC to estimate the parameters of an appropriate count-based regression model. The regressions based on individual sampled sequences were placed in a multilevel framework, which allowed for the estimation of hyperparameters that account for chronological uncertainty in individual event times. Two processes were used to produce simulated data. One represented a simple monotonic change in event-counts and the other was based on a real palaeoclimate proxy record. In both cases, the method produced estimates that had the correct sign and were consistently biased toward zero. These results indicate that the approach is widely applicable and could form the basis of a new class of quantitative models for use in exploring long-term human and environmental processes.

Jurassic-Cretaceous paleogeography of Central-West Parnaiba Basin, NE Brazil - stratigraphy and sedimentary provenance of detrital zircons

<p><span>The Phanerozoic Parnaíba Basin occupies 600.000km² in northeast Brazil, covering cratons and Neoproterozoic belts. Its Central-West region is mostly represented by the Jurassic-Cretaceous Sequence (Mosquito, Corda Grajaú, Codó and Itapecuru formations) recording magmatic events from the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, with depocenters migrations and shifts on depositional environments related to Pangea breakup.<span>  </span>This work discusses the Jurassic-Cretaceous siliciclastic units testing possible sedimentary source areas with U-Pb and combined Lu-Hf data on detrital zircons, using LA-ICP-MS. The basalts from Mosquito Formation are dated at +/- 198Ma and the Codó Formation present accurate Aptian fossil data. This formation records a hypersaline lake system, succeeded by a transgression that represents pioneer marine ingression within an intracontinental rift. The other units (Corda, Grajaú and Itapecuru) are constituted by siliciclastic sediments involved in intracontinental sub-environments. The Corda Formation consists of aeolian system, sand sheets and <em>wadis</em> deposited in a desertic setting. The contact between the subsequent Grajaú Formation is abrupt, represented, at the base, by thick coarse braided river facies grading laterally and upwards to ephemeral channels in association with low amplitude Aeolian dunes, evidencing still arid conditions. Interlayered beds of fluvial and aeolian sandstones within lacustrine deposits, indicates that Codó and Grajaú formations consists the same seasonal fluvial-lacustrine system. The last Itapecuru Formation, is represented by a thick red sandstone succession deposited in a deltaic system. Paleocurrents measurements below Codó Formation (i.e. Corda and lower Grajaú) points a W-NW sense of direction, whereas paleocurrents above Codó Formation (i.e. upper Grajaú and Itapecuru) presents a regional sense to E-NE. Detrital zircons geochronology analysis helped to identify the source area of sediments through the comparison of the main ages of possible uplifted tectonic terranes. The preliminary results revealed that sandstones below Codó Formation shows a major Neoproterozoic population (56, 41% to 40%) with age peaks at 583 and 628 Ma; and also Paleoproterozoic (43, 48% to 35,05%); Archean (4,35%) and Paleozoic (2,61%) populations. Sandstones above Codó Formation, also show a Neoproterozoic major detrital zircon population (40% to 37,12%) with 625, 665 and 783 Ma age peaks. Two other populations are present: Paleoproterozoic (22.68% to 20%) with peaks at 1749 and 1881 Ma, and Archean (24,45% to 15,47%). This last source has a greater contribution than in the formations below the Codó maker. We envisaged that the shift from W-NW to E-NE sandstones paleocurrent is coherent with the rise on Archean contribution, possibly related to the Amazon Craton to the West. In addition, the youngest Phanerozoic detrital zircons obtained in all samples are minor (6,66% to 6,18%). The integration of field stratigraphic analysis, paleocurrents and detrital zircon provenance studies corroborate to the hypothesis that Codó Formation must represent a Cretaceous stratigraphic datum for the transition of a rift and post-rift phase, thus the change of source areas is consistent. </span></p><p><span>The authors acknowledge support from Shell Brasil Petroleo Ltda. and ANP (Brazil’s National Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency) through the R&D levy regulation (Technichal Cooperation #20.219-2).</span></p>

Holocene marine ingressions in the coastal zone of the pomeranian bay based on radiocarbon assays

In recent years, a team at the Geology and Paleogeography Unit, Marine Sciences Institute, University of Szczecin, has been performing geological, geochronological and paleogeographic surveys in (i) the Szczecin Lagoon and Świna Gate Sandbar and (ii) the estuary section of the Rega river valley near Mrzeżyno. These studies have helped to examine and identify not only the distribution of fossil marine sediments but also their lithological and sedimentological characteristics. The age of marine ingressions and regressions in the coastal zone of the Pomeranian Bay were determined using approximately 170 radiocarbon assays. It was found that the marine ingression associated with the ‘Littorina transgression’ was not synchronous at these two areas. It started earlier in the Mrzeżyno area, ca. 8300-8200 cal BP. In that first phase, marine sediments developed as tightly packed sands containing a few fragments of shells. In several profiles, these deposits were separated from the bottom and top with layers of peat, thus allowing an indirect determination of their age. The next phase of ingression began about 7300 cal BP. These younger marine sediments already contained quite numerous shells of marine malacofauna, especially Cardium glaucum, often found in a life position. In the area of the Szczecin Lagoon and Swina Gate Sandbar, the oldest marine ingression started as early as about 7350 cal BP. The quite clear trace is a considerably thicker series of marine sands with numerous sea shells representing marine and brackish-marine environments, including Cardium glaucum shells in a life position, which made it possible to identify the age and the rate of accumulation of marine sands.

Early Miocene ostracods from the Sadovi section (Mt Požeška gora, Croatia)

Early Miocene ostracods from the Sadovi section (Mt Požeška gora, Croatia)The study of the Early Miocene (Late Ottnangian/Early Karpatian) ostracod fauna from the Sadovi section (Mt Požeška gora, Croatia) led to several results concerning Neogene paleobiogeography and paleoecology. Brackish deposits of Late Ottnangian and Early Karpatian age have been recognized for the first time in the North Croatian Basin. These deposits indicate the first marine ingression into the Early Miocene lake in this area. Twenty-nine ostracod species were determined, including the new taxaFabaeformiscandona slavonicanov. sp. andHerpetocypris sadoviinov. sp.