The decline in China’s fertility level: a decomposition analysis

Many factors have contributed to the decline in China’s fertility level. Using China’s population census data from 1990, 2000 and 2010, the present study investigates the factors causing the decline in China’s fertility rate by decomposing changes in two fertility indices: the total fertility rate (TFR) and the net reproduction rate (NRR). The change in the TFR is decomposed into the change in the marital fertility rate (MFR) and the change in the proportion of married women (PMW). Four factors contribute to the change in the NRR. The following are the main findings. A drop in the MFR caused a decrease in the TFR and the NRR between 1989 and 2000. However, the change in MFR increased TFR and NRR between 2000 and 2010. Marriage postponement caused a decline in the fertility level between 1989 and 2000 as well as between 2000 and 2010. The effect of the MFR and marriage postponement varied with age and region and also between urban and rural areas.

EFFECTS OF POLYGYNY AND CONSANGUINITY ON HIGH FERTILITY IN THE RURAL ARAB POPULATION IN SOUTH JORDAN

Based on the authors’ interview survey for 608 randomly selected women of the rural Arab population in the South Ghor district of Jordan, this paper examined the effects of polygyny and consanguinity on high fertility, which was recognized as natural fertility. The prevalence of polygynous and consanguineous marriages was 28·0% and 58·1%, respectively, largely reflecting the population’s traditional marriage customs. The findings highlighted a significantly higher total marital fertility rate (TMFR) in the monogamous wives (10·5) than in the senior polygynous (8·1) and junior polygynous wives (8·6); the TMFR did not significantly differ among the wives of non-consanguineous, first-cousin and second-cousin marriages. The formation of polygynous marriage was decided by the husband, mostly as a result of his senior wife’s infecundity or sub-fecundity, and the age of the husband at marriage to his junior polygynous wife was high in many cases, leading to a decline in this wife’s fecundity.

A New Proposal for Measuring Marital Fertility in Historical Populations

In this paper, a critical analysis is made of some of the indices used in numerous historical studies on the decline of fertility. More concretely, it is demonstrated how the Total Marital Fertility Rate (TMFR) and the Ig and I’g indices of marital fertility designed by Coale (1986) not only are not good indicators of a population’s level of marital fertility, but also in some cases (for example, when there is an important delay in female mean age at marriage) can even indicate an increase in marital fertility when in reality it is decreasing. Likewise, a new index for measuring marital fertility (known as the Navarre Index) is presented which takes into account women’s average age at marriage as well as their mortality rate during their reproductive period.

Recent evidence on trends and differentials in Bangladesh fertility: an update

SummaryA comparison of contraceptive and fertility data for 1985–91 with data for 1983 shows that fertility has continued to decline in Bangladesh, in all segments of society. The magnitude of decline varied according to educational level, region and urban–rural locality. The percentage decline in total marital fertility rate was somewhat higher among urban than rural residents; educated women showed greater declines than uneducated, increas-ing the overall educational differences in total fertility by 1991. Factors contributing to the recent decline in fertility are discussed.