scholarly journals Another tempo distortion: analyzing controlled fertility by age-specific marital fertility rate

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiyosi Hirosima
2001 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte

In this paper, a critical analysis is made of some of the indices used in numerous historical studies on the decline of fertility. More concretely, it is demonstrated how the Total Marital Fertility Rate (TMFR) and the Ig and I’g indices of marital fertility designed by Coale (1986) not only are not good indicators of a population’s level of marital fertility, but also in some cases (for example, when there is an important delay in female mean age at marriage) can even indicate an increase in marital fertility when in reality it is decreasing. Likewise, a new index for measuring marital fertility (known as the Navarre Index) is presented which takes into account women’s average age at marriage as well as their mortality rate during their reproductive period.


1994 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Amin ◽  
A. Ahmed ◽  
J. Chowdhury ◽  
M. Kabir ◽  
R. Hill

SummaryA comparison of contraceptive and fertility data for 1985–91 with data for 1983 shows that fertility has continued to decline in Bangladesh, in all segments of society. The magnitude of decline varied according to educational level, region and urban–rural locality. The percentage decline in total marital fertility rate was somewhat higher among urban than rural residents; educated women showed greater declines than uneducated, increas-ing the overall educational differences in total fertility by 1991. Factors contributing to the recent decline in fertility are discussed.


2003 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 513-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHUJI SUEYOSHI ◽  
RYUTARO OHTSUKA

Based on the authors’ interview survey for 608 randomly selected women of the rural Arab population in the South Ghor district of Jordan, this paper examined the effects of polygyny and consanguinity on high fertility, which was recognized as natural fertility. The prevalence of polygynous and consanguineous marriages was 28·0% and 58·1%, respectively, largely reflecting the population’s traditional marriage customs. The findings highlighted a significantly higher total marital fertility rate (TMFR) in the monogamous wives (10·5) than in the senior polygynous (8·1) and junior polygynous wives (8·6); the TMFR did not significantly differ among the wives of non-consanguineous, first-cousin and second-cousin marriages. The formation of polygynous marriage was decided by the husband, mostly as a result of his senior wife’s infecundity or sub-fecundity, and the age of the husband at marriage to his junior polygynous wife was high in many cases, leading to a decline in this wife’s fecundity.


1992 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soon Lee Ying

Recent trends in fertility in Malaysia1 have created uncertainty about the course of the demographic transition. While Chinese and Indian fertility continued to decline into the 1980s, since 1978, Malay fertility has levelled off and even risen slightly. Evidence up to the early 1980s suggests that the phenomenon may be temporary, attributed mainly to the bunching of births caused by the postponement of marriage among the Malays. More recent evidence, however, point to sustained levels of high Malay marital fertility through the late 1980s — TFRs (total fertility rate) among Malays averaged 4.5 and above between 1982 and 1987 while Chinese and Indian TFRs continued to fall from 2.7 to 2.3 and 3.8 to 3.5, respectively.


2019 ◽  
Vol 51 (6) ◽  
pp. 785-798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quanbao Jiang ◽  
Shucai Yang ◽  
Shuzhuo Li ◽  
Marcus W. Feldman

AbstractMany factors have contributed to the decline in China’s fertility level. Using China’s population census data from 1990, 2000 and 2010, the present study investigates the factors causing the decline in China’s fertility rate by decomposing changes in two fertility indices: the total fertility rate (TFR) and the net reproduction rate (NRR). The change in the TFR is decomposed into the change in the marital fertility rate (MFR) and the change in the proportion of married women (PMW). Four factors contribute to the change in the NRR. The following are the main findings. A drop in the MFR caused a decrease in the TFR and the NRR between 1989 and 2000. However, the change in MFR increased TFR and NRR between 2000 and 2010. Marriage postponement caused a decline in the fertility level between 1989 and 2000 as well as between 2000 and 2010. The effect of the MFR and marriage postponement varied with age and region and also between urban and rural areas.


Author(s):  
Abdul Aziz Jemain ◽  
Puzziawati Ab Ghani

Kertas ini menjejak perubahan fertiliti tujuh kumpulan kohot kelahiran. Penjejakan dilakukan dengan cara menggabung model fertiliti perkahwinan dan model umur perkahwinan. Kedua-dua model telah diusulkan oleh Coale dan Trusell. Kaedah regresi tak linear digunakan untuk menganggar parameter anu pada model. Didapati model yang dicadangkan mampu memadan data laporan kelahiran tahunan dengan baik. Berasaskan pemadanan ini didapati kadar fertiliti wanita Malaysia terus menurun. Kohot kelahiran selepas dekad lima puluhan mempunyai kadar fertiliti semulajadi 50 % kadar yang sepatutnya. Kajian ini juga menunjukkan purata umur wanita berkahwin terus meningkat. Purata tahun diambil untuk memasuki alam perkahwinan setelah seseorang mencapai umur minimum berkahwin meningkat dari tiga kepada empat tahun. Purata umur berkahwin bagi kohot muda sekitar 21 – 22 tahun manakala kohot tua sekitar 15 – 16 tahun. Kertas ini juga turut membincangkan bagaimana perubahan kegiatan ekonomi berperanan dalam mencorakkan perubahan yang dikesan. Kata kunci: Fertiliti, kadar fertiliti, jumlah kadar fertiliti, fertiliti semulajadi, umur berkahwin This paper attempts to trace fertility changes for seven birth cohorts. Both marital fertility model and model for age of marriage by Coale and Trussell are combined to trace the changes. Nonlinear regression technique is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the model. The model suggested is found to fit the yearly birth data well. Based on the model fitting, it is discovered that fertility rate among Malaysian women declines steadily. The post 50s birth cohorts have natural fertility rate of only half of the supposed rate. Average age of marriage among women is found to be on the increase. The study also reveals an increase from three years to four years, the average number of years required prior to entering marriage life after a woman reaches a minimum age of marriage. The younger cohorts´ average age of marriage is around 21 to 22 years whereas the older cohorts is around 15 to 16 years. This paper also discusses on how changes in economic activities are responsible to shape the pattern of changes traced. Key words: Fertility fertility rate, total fertility rate, age of marriage


2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-29
Author(s):  
Stella Babalola ◽  
Joshua O. Akinyemi ◽  
Clifford O. Odimegwu

Abstract Nigeria has one of the highest fertility rates in Africa. Data from 2013 Demographic and Health Surveys indicate a virtual stagnation of fertility rate since 2003. Low contraceptive use and pronatalist attitudes are among the factors contributing to the high fertility rate in Nigeria. In this manuscript, we pooled data from three most recent waves of Demographic and Health Surveys to examine trends in demand for children over time and identify the factors associated with change in demand for children. The data show that demand for children has declined since 2003 although not monotonically so. Variables that were positively associated with increased likelihood of desiring no additional children were residence in the South-West (as opposed to residence in the North-Central), exposure to family planning (FP) messages on the mass media, number of children ever born, educational level, and urban residence. In contrast, uncertainty about fertility desire was more widespread in 2008 compared to 2013 although less widespread in 2003 than in 2013. The likelihood of being undecided about fertility desire was positively associated with discrepancies in family size desires between husband and wife, parity and Islamic religious affiliation. Programs should aim to increase access to effective contraceptive methods and promote demand for contraceptives as a way of fostering a sustainable reduction in demand for children. Furthermore, strategies that address uncertainty by fostering women’s understanding of the social and health implications of large family sizes are relevant.


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