Spatiotemporal variations in exposure: Chagas disease in Colombia as a case study

Age-stratified serosurvey data are often used to understand spatiotemporal trends in disease incidence and exposure through estimating the Force-of-Infection (FoI). Typically, median or mean FoI estimates are used as the response variable in predictive models, often overlooking the uncertainty in estimated FoI values when fitting models and evaluating their predictive ability. To assess how this uncertainty impact predictions, we compared three approaches with three levels of uncertainty integration. We propose a performance indicator to assess how predictions reflect initial uncertainty.In Colombia, 76 serosurveys (1980–2014) conducted at municipality level provided age-stratified Chagas disease prevalence data. The yearly FoI was estimated at the serosurvey level using a time-varying catalytic model. Environmental, demographic and entomological predictors were used to fit and predict the FoI at municipality level from 1980 to 2010 across Colombia.A stratified bootstrap method was used to fit the models without temporal autocorrelation at the serosurvey level. The predictive ability of each model was evaluated to select the best-fit models within urban, rural and (Amerindian) indigenous settings. Model averaging, with the 10 best-fit models identified, was used to generate predictions.Our analysis shows a risk of overconfidence in model predictions when median estimates of FoI alone are used to fit and evaluate models, failing to account for uncertainty in FoI estimates. Our proposed methodology fully propagates uncertainty in the estimated FoI onto the generated predictions, providing realistic assessments of both central tendency and current uncertainty surrounding exposure to Chagas disease.

To Be, to Do, to Share: The Triple-Loop of Water Governance to Improve Urban Water Resilience—Testing the Benidorm’ Experience, Spain

Peri-urban interfaces tend to ensure water supply relying on their surrounding’ resources, generating water disputes when asking for collaboration. The urban-rural matrix of the Marina Baja county in southern Spain is characterized by inland irrigation and coastal tourism development, being the most water-intensive activities in Benidorm. This contribution addresses the following research question: Can a better and systematic understanding of stakeholders’ behavior and interactions increase water resilience in urban-rural interfaces? Data were collected from semi-structured interviews and questionnaires to 19 key stakeholders representing government officials, water managers, and the agricultural, tourism, and environmental sectors. Data were analyzed following the SAA and using MaxQDA® Analytics Pro 2020. A triple-loop analysis on water governance has been developed and applied to synthesize stakeholders’ behavior when addressing urban water resilience to face climate change impacts: relevance and representativeness (to be), recognition and assessment (to do), and collaboration (to share). Results highlighted how Benidorm’s urban water resilience is conditioned by four main learnings from stakeholders’ perception and interaction: (1) ‘feeling represented’ is related to stakeholders’ capacity to negotiate decisions, (2) lack of political will and Benidorm’s leading role increase stakeholders’ feelings of underrepresentation, motivating power imbalance, (3) stakeholders’ actions are less valued than stakeholders’ roles and functions, and (4) agreements are benefited by predisposition (willingness), but also by the compatibility of discourses (affinity) and the technical-management facilities (viability).

Everyday speculation in the remaking of peri-urban livelihoods and landscapes

Peri-urbanization is transforming the urban-rural interface of metropolitan areas across the global south. Large-scale planned developments and infrastructure projects result in the widespread displacement of residents and the disappearance of agricultural fields, vegetable plots, and small enterprises. Through multi-year fieldwork in eastern peri-urban Jakarta, we shift the optic from the large players driving these transformations—developers, land brokers, and investors—to examine how residents of peri-urban settlements (kampungs) respond to unexpected developments and manage the uncertainties associated with market-induced displacement. We conceptualize their practices as everyday speculation, extending speculation beyond its financial meaning to include social and cultural aspects. Both displacees in relocation kampungs and holdouts in kampungs subject to displacement make the most of emergent spatiotemporal rent gaps to devise ways to improve their livelihoods and accumulate wealth, but they also attempt to realize their social and cultural aspirations of reproducing kampung ways of life characterized by dense social networks and commoning practices such as mutual aid. Speculation reinforces pre-existing economic inequalities among kampung residents but is not obliterating social and cultural values that contest the norms of neoliberal global urbanism. Scaling up from everyday speculation by individual households, we identify three paths of kampung transformation that are concatenating across a shape-shifting speculative kampung landscape that coexists in a complex and synergistic relationship with the planned developments. Understanding residents’ everyday actions is thus important to grasping the full scope of peri-urbanization.

Urbanization can help reduce income inequality

The global community has been confronted with rising income inequality, in particular, for those least developed countries (LDCs), since the same level of inequality as in advanced countries would push many LDCs into abject poverty. This paper focuses on income inequality in developing countries, particularly LDCs. First, we demonstrate the infeasibility of fiscal measures in resolving income inequality even in developed countries. Second, we show that inequality in LDCs can be largely explained by urban-rural gap. Third, we uncover the benign impacts of urbanization on urban-rural gap. This leads us to propose an out-of-box strategy—containing income inequality by promoting well-managed urbanization. Fourth, we reveal a misperception that may have contributed to the neglect of urban-rural gap in constituting national inequality. This has possibly caused anti-urbanization mentalities and practices, with adverse distributional consequences. Finally, we provide evidence-based policy suggestions aimed at reducing income inequality and poverty—two major goals of SDGs.

Spatial Patterns and Driving Factors of Rural Population Loss under Urban–Rural Integration Development: A Micro-Scale Study on the Village Level in a Hilly Region

Under the background of urban–rural integration, balanced development between urban and rural areas has been increasingly advocated. Rural population loss (RPL) is not only due to the laws of social and economic development but also the comprehensive action of natural, social, and economic factors. Taking 774 administrative villages in Laiyang County, which is in a hilly region, as our research area, we comprehensively used spatial analysis and geographic detectors to explore the spatial characteristics and driving factors of RPL, which was significantly correlated with rural planning. The research demonstrated that: (1) The rural population in Laiyang County generally had a low level of RPL (1.9%), but each village varied greatly. The village with the greatest RPL had a rate of 56%. The RPL between urban and rural areas, towns and streets, and villages and villages were unbalanced, and rural population flow mainly occurred between urban and rural areas. (2) RPL in Laiyang County was generally low in the central urban area and high in the northern and southern areas. Population loss presents agglomeration globally and high–low agglomeration locally. (3) The distance from village to county, elevation, cultivated land quantity, collective economic income, village area, and ecological service value were the key factors influencing RPL in Laiyang County. When comparing the dominant factors, the interaction between collective income and elevation was the strongest. Exploring the spatial characteristics and influencing factors of RPL provided us with ideas for the classified promotion of rural revitalization, preparation of rural development planning, and promotion of the integrated development of urban and rural areas.

How Do Population Flows Promote Urban–Rural Integration? Addressing Migrants’ Farmland Arrangement and Social Integration in China’s Urban Agglomeration Regions

China’s urban–rural relationships have been changed dramatically by the intensifying population flows, especially in urban agglomeration regions. This study contributes to the interpretation of urban–rural integration mechanisms in urban agglomeration by constructing a conceptual framework of migration-related resource flows. Taking the Wuhan urban agglomeration as an example, migrants’ farmland arrangement, migration pattern, and social integration have been investigated to uncover the spatial and temporal characteristics of the urban–rural interaction, based on the data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2012–2017. The findings indicate that the farmland circulation in the Wuhan urban agglomeration was generally low, but slightly higher than that of the national average. The central city, Wuhan, had a high degree of family migration and social integration, indicating stronger resource flows in developed areas. However, its farmland circulation level was lower than that of non-central cities. The unsynchronized interaction of resources in urban and rural areas should be taken seriously, especially in areas with a relatively developed urban economy. The advantages of the central city in absorbing and settling migrants confirmed the positive impact of the urban agglomeration on promoting urban–rural integration.