Projection of Indian Population by Using Leslie Matrix with Changing Age Specific Mortality Rate, Age Specific Fertility Rate and Age Specific Marital Fertility Rate

Author(s):  
Prasanta Pathak ◽  
Vivek Verma
2001 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte

In this paper, a critical analysis is made of some of the indices used in numerous historical studies on the decline of fertility. More concretely, it is demonstrated how the Total Marital Fertility Rate (TMFR) and the Ig and I’g indices of marital fertility designed by Coale (1986) not only are not good indicators of a population’s level of marital fertility, but also in some cases (for example, when there is an important delay in female mean age at marriage) can even indicate an increase in marital fertility when in reality it is decreasing. Likewise, a new index for measuring marital fertility (known as the Navarre Index) is presented which takes into account women’s average age at marriage as well as their mortality rate during their reproductive period.


1994 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Amin ◽  
A. Ahmed ◽  
J. Chowdhury ◽  
M. Kabir ◽  
R. Hill

SummaryA comparison of contraceptive and fertility data for 1985–91 with data for 1983 shows that fertility has continued to decline in Bangladesh, in all segments of society. The magnitude of decline varied according to educational level, region and urban–rural locality. The percentage decline in total marital fertility rate was somewhat higher among urban than rural residents; educated women showed greater declines than uneducated, increas-ing the overall educational differences in total fertility by 1991. Factors contributing to the recent decline in fertility are discussed.


2003 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 513-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHUJI SUEYOSHI ◽  
RYUTARO OHTSUKA

Based on the authors’ interview survey for 608 randomly selected women of the rural Arab population in the South Ghor district of Jordan, this paper examined the effects of polygyny and consanguinity on high fertility, which was recognized as natural fertility. The prevalence of polygynous and consanguineous marriages was 28·0% and 58·1%, respectively, largely reflecting the population’s traditional marriage customs. The findings highlighted a significantly higher total marital fertility rate (TMFR) in the monogamous wives (10·5) than in the senior polygynous (8·1) and junior polygynous wives (8·6); the TMFR did not significantly differ among the wives of non-consanguineous, first-cousin and second-cousin marriages. The formation of polygynous marriage was decided by the husband, mostly as a result of his senior wife’s infecundity or sub-fecundity, and the age of the husband at marriage to his junior polygynous wife was high in many cases, leading to a decline in this wife’s fecundity.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Raven Helmick

ObjectiveTo understand trends in race-specific mortality rates between blacks and whites to discover any racial inequalities that might exist for drug overdose deaths. To delve into the types of drugs that are prominently involved in black drug overdose deaths from 2013-2017 in the state of Indiana.IntroductionBlack Hoosiers, the largest minority population in Indiana, make up almost 10% of the state’s population, and accounted for 8% of the total resident drug overdose deaths from 2013-2017 compared to whites at 91%. However, a closer look at race-specific mortality rates might reveal racial inequalities. Therefore, the purpose of this project was to analyze drug overdose morality rates among white and black Hoosiers to discover possible racial inequalities and to discover trends in drug involvement in overdose deaths among blacks.MethodsDrug overdose deaths that occurred in Indiana between 2013 and 2017 were identified using the underlying and contributing cause of death ICD-10 codes and abstracted from the Indiana State Department of Health’s annual finalized mortality dataset. Race-specific drug overdose death rates were calculated and compared among racial groups. Drug overdose deaths in blacks were examined for trends over time and by the types of drugs involved.ResultsBetween 2013 and 2017, drug overdose mortality rates for whites increased from 17.05 to 27.28 per 100,000. Blacks saw a higher rate increase during this same time frame: from 10.74 to 30.62 per 100,000, surpassing the mortality rate of whites by the end of 2017. Drug overdose deaths in blacks increased 197% from 2013-2017 and drug specific mortality rate increases were seen across all drug category’s. Opioids, which were involved in 61% of the 2017 drug overdose deaths among blacks, had a rate increase from 3.05 to 18.62 per 100,000 between 2013 and 2017. Drug specific overdose mortality rate increases were also seen for overdoses involving cocaine (1.76 to 10.62 per 100,000), benzodiazepines (0.32 to 3.08 per 100,000), and psychostimulants other than cocaine (0.16 to 1.69 per 100,000) such as amphetamines.ConclusionsWhile white Hoosiers had higher drug overdose mortality rates between 2013 and 2016, black Hoosiers had a greater mortality rate increase and surpassed the mortality rate in whites in 2017. Opioids, the most frequently involved substance in overdose deaths among blacks from 2013-2017, showed increasing rates during this time period. However, increases in drug specific overdose mortality rates for cocaine, benzodiazepines, and psychostimulants other than cocaine also call for public health attention. These results promote the inclusion of minority health experts in drug overdose prevention efforts and issue a call for future prevention efforts to be targeted toward the state’s largest minority population. 


2021 ◽  
Vol 86 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-109
Author(s):  
Miroslav Korbeľ ◽  
◽  
Pavel Kaščák ◽  
zuzana Nižňanská

Overview Objective: Analysis of perinatal mortality in the Slovak Republic during the years 2007–2018. Methods: Analysis of prospectively collected selected perinatal data in the years 2007–2018. Results: In the year 2007, there were 63 obstetrics units, 51,146 deliveries and that of live births 51,650 in the Slovak Republic. The number of obstetrics units decreased to 51 in the years 2018, the total number of deliveries increased to 57,085 and that of live births increased to 57,773. The total fertility rate in the years 2007–2018 increased from 1.27 to 1.54. The preterm deliveries rate increased from 7.3% in the year 2007 to 8.5% in the year 2010 and decreased to 7% in the year 2018. The perinatal mortality rate decreased from 6.2 in the year 2007 to 4.4 in the year 2017, increased again in the years 2018 to 5.0 and according to the criteria of WHO (World Health Organization) to 6.6 per 1,000 still- and live-births. During the years 2007–2018 at perinatal mortality stillbirth participate with 65%, low birth weight with 63% and severe congenital anomalies with 19%. Transport in utero to perinatological centers in the years 2007–2018 has decreased from 57 to 56% for infants 1,000–1,499 g and from 75 to 73% for infants below 1,000 g. Conclusion: In the year 2017, perinatology in the Slovak Republic reached the best result in the perinatal mortality rate – 4.4‰ (0.44%), but has increased to over 5‰ next year. To further reduce perinatal mortality in the Slovak Republic, it is necessary to improve the prenatal dia­gnosis of severe congenital abnormalities, transport in utero of very low birth weight fetuses, centralization of high-risk pregnancies, obstetric personnel and material-technical equipment of obstetricians and neonatal intensive care units. Keywords: perinatal mortality – preterm delivery – multiple pregnancy – low birth weight – very low birth weight – total fertility rate


Rheumatology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 207-216
Author(s):  
Irene E M Bultink ◽  
Frank de Vries ◽  
Ronald F van Vollenhoven ◽  
Arief Lalmohamed

Abstract Objectives We wanted to estimate the magnitude of the risk from all-cause, cause-specific and sex-specific mortality in patients with SLE and relative risks compared with matched controls and to evaluate the influence of exposure to medication on risk of mortality in SLE. Methods We conducted a population-based cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics and national death certificates (from 1987 to 2012). Each SLE patient (n = 4343) was matched with up to six controls (n = 21 780) by age and sex. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate overall and cause-specific mortality rate ratios. Results Patients with SLE had a 1.8-fold increased mortality rate for all-cause mortality compared with age- and sex-matched subjects [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.57, 2.08]. The HR was highest in patients aged 18–39 years (adjusted HR = 4.87, 95% CI: 1.93, 12.3). Mortality rates were not significantly different between male and female patients. Cumulative glucocorticoid use raised the mortality rate, whereas the HR was reduced by 45% with cumulative low-dose HCQ use. Patients with SLE had increased cause-specific mortality rates for cardiovascular disease, infections, non-infectious respiratory disease and for death attributable to accidents or suicide, whereas the mortality rate for cancer was reduced in comparison to controls. Conclusion British patients with SLE had a 1.8-fold increased mortality rate compared with the general population. Glucocorticoid use and being diagnosed at a younger age were associated with an increased risk of mortality. HCQ use significantly reduced the mortality rate, but this association was found only in the lowest cumulative dosage exposure group.


Medicina ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrikas Kazlauskas ◽  
Nijolė Raškauskienė ◽  
Rima Radžiuvienė ◽  
Vinsas Janušonis

The objective of the study was to evaluate the trends in stroke mortality in the population of Klaipėda aged 35–79 years from 1994 to 2008. Material and Methods. Mortality data on all permanent residents of Klaipėda aged 35–79 years who died from stroke in 1994–2008 were gathered for the study. All death certificates of permanent residents of Klaipėda aged 35–79 years who died during 1994–2008 were examined in this study. The International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 codes 430–436, and ICD-10 codes I60–I64) was used. Sex-specific mortality rates were standardized according to the Segi’s world population; all the mortality rates were calculated per 100 000 population per year. Trends in stroke mortality were estimated using log-linear regression models. Sex-specific mortality rates and trends were calculated for 3 age groups (35–79, 35–64, and 65–79 years). Results. During the entire study period (1994–2008), a marked decline in stroke mortality with a clear slowdown after 2002 was observed. The average annual percent changes in mortality rates for men and women aged 35–79 years were –4.6% (P=0.041) and –6.5% (P=0.002), respectively. From 1994 to 2002, the stroke mortality rate decreased consistently among both Klaipėda men and women aged 35–64 years (20.4% per year, P=0.002, and 14.7% per year, P=0.006, respectively) and in the elderly population aged 65–79 years (13.8% per year, P=0.005; and 12% per year, P=0.019). During 2003–2008, stroke mortality increased by 16.3% per year in middle-aged men (35–64 years), whereas among women (aged 35–64 and 65–79 years) and elderly men (aged 65–79 years), the age-adjusted mortality rate remained relatively unchanged. Conclusions. Among both men and women, the mortality rates from stroke sharply declined between 1994 and 2008 with a clear slowdown in the decline after 2002. Stroke mortality increased significantly among middle-aged men from 2003, while it remained without significant changes among women of the same age and both elderly men and women.


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