Heterogeneity in Family Life Course Patterns and Intra-Cohort Wealth Disparities in Late Working Age

Considering soaring wealth inequalities in older age, this research addresses the relationship between family life courses and widening wealth differences between individuals as they age. We holistically examine how childbearing and marital histories are associated with personal wealth at ages 50–59 for Western Germans born between 1943 and 1967. We propose that deviations from culturally and institutionally-supported family patterns, or the stratified access to them, associate with differential wealth accumulation over time and can explain wealth inequalities at older ages. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP, v34, waves 2002–2017), we first identified typical family trajectory patterns between ages 16 and 50 with multichannel sequence analysis and cluster analysis. We then modelled personal wealth ranks at ages 50–59 as a function of family patterns. Results showed that deviations from the standard family pattern (i.e. stable marriage with, on average, two children) were mostly associated with lower wealth ranks at older age, controlling for childhood characteristics that partly predict selection into family patterns and baseline wealth. We found higher wealth penalties for greater deviation and lower penalties for moderate deviation from the standard family pattern. Addressing entire family trajectories, our research extended and nuanced our knowledge of the role of earlier family behaviour for later economic wellbeing. By using personal-level rather than household-level wealth data, we were able to identify substantial gender differences in the study associations. Our research also recognised the importance of combining marital and childbearing histories to assess wealth inequalities.

Partnership Context of First Births in Russia: The Enduring Significance of Marriage

While cohabitation and non-marital childbearing have been increasing in Russia since 1990, the share of marital first births that are conceived prior to marriage has changed very little since the Soviet era. The prior findings on the stability of trends in premarital conceptions in Russia have been contradictory and inconclusive. This study aims to extend the existing empirical evidence on premarital conceptions in Russia and to contribute to the discussion on the persistence of marriage as the preferred partnership context for parenthood. We focus on births that occurred within the first two years of marriage, and compare the childbearing patterns of Russian women who married in different historical periods. For our investigation of fertility among marital cohorts who married during the Soviet era (1960–1991), we use individual-level data from the 1994 microcensus. For our examination of fertility among more recent marital cohorts (2000, 2011, and 2016), we draw on data from birth records in civil registers. We also use relevant complementary data sources. Our findings show that there has been a marked shift in the relationship between conception and marriage in Russia. Increasingly, conceptions have been occurring before marriage, and in the most recent marital cohorts, the level of premarital first conceptions has even surpassed the level of marital first conceptions. The average interval between conception and entry into marriage has also been lengthening. We describe this unique pattern of childbearing and discuss some potential explanations for the ongoing association between marriage and childbearing in Russia.

Patterns and Drivers of Emigration of the Turkish Second Generation in the Netherlands

Using unique longitudinal data from the Dutch population registers, this study investigates the patterns and drivers of emigration of the Turkish second generation born in the Netherlands between 1983 and 1992. Around 13% of the Turkish second generation in the research population emigrated during early adulthood, as compared to 6% of their peers without immigrant parents. Half of the Turkish second-generation emigrants who reported their destination country moved to Turkey, while the other half moved to other destinations, especially the Dutch neighbouring countries. Among the Turkish second generation, unemployment over the previous year was found to increase the likelihood of emigration for individuals with low or middle levels of education, whereas no support was found that higher educated individuals (either employed or unemployed) are more likely to emigrate. However, if high-skilled unemployed individuals of the Turkish second generation emigrated, they appeared more likely to select Turkey as their destination as compared to other (or unknown) destinations. International migration experiences during childhood, living at the parental home, and residing in neighbourhoods with a high share of co-ethnics were also associated with a higher chance of emigration to Turkey, whereas living in the Dutch border regions was associated with a higher chance of emigration to other destinations. Together, the findings indicate that the Turkish second generation has a higher chance to emigrate than their peers without immigrant parents, and that mechanisms specific to the second generation apply to the migration behaviour of this group.

The Short-Term Effects of European Integration on Mortality Convergence: A Case Study of European Union’s 2004 Enlargement

Although European integration can be expected to result in mortality convergence (reduced mortality differences), a life expectancy divide persists in the European Union (EU) between the old Member States (OMS) in the west and the new Member States (NMS) in the east. Studies investigating the impact of European integration on mortality convergence are rare and did not consider regional differences. We examine the short-term effects of the 2004 enlargement on mortality convergence at the supranational, national, and subnational levels. Using sex-specific life expectancies for 23 Member States (1990–2017) and the NUTS 2 regions in Czechia, Hungary, and Poland for 1992–2016, we examined the trend in sigma and beta mortality convergence measures at the country and regional levels using joinpoint regression. We found no compelling evidence that EU accession influenced the process of mortality convergence between OMS and NMS, or within the three NMS, over the short term. While there was overall beta and sigma convergence at the national level during 1990–2017, no regional convergence showed, and the trends in convergence did not significantly change at the time of EU accession or soon after (2004–2007). The accession in 2004 did not visibly impact the overall process of mortality convergence over the short term, likely because of the greater influence of country and region-specific policies and characteristics. The interaction of Member State and regional contexts with the mechanisms of European integration requires further study. Future enlargement procedures should emphasise tailored support to ensure more equitable gains from European integration.

Family Complexity and Parents’ Migration: The Role of Repartnering and Distance to Non-Resident Children

Recent research suggests that the increasing complexity of family life could be a factor in declines in internal migration (long-distance moves within countries). As many separated parents continue to share childcare responsibilities or have visiting arrangements, their mobility is naturally constrained. However, the relationship between family complexity and individual migration behaviour has never been studied explicitly. We compare separated parents with parents in two-parent families in their likelihood of migrating within the Netherlands. We use detailed records of parents’ partnership status and children’s residential situation. An event-history analysis was performed using register-based population data (N = 442,412). We find that separated, single parents are more likely to migrate than those in two-parent families. The same is true for repartnered mothers, while repartnered fathers are about as likely to migrate as fathers in two-parent families. Separated parents’ migration behaviour depends on where their children live. Having non-resident children who live some distance away is associated with a much higher likelihood of migrating than having resident children or non-resident children who live nearby. Having both resident and non-resident children who live nearby—shared residence (i.e. joint physical custody) is likely common in this situation—is associated with a considerably lower likelihood of migrating than having resident children only. Based on our findings, one would expect family complexities stemming from parental separation to be associated with higher rather than lower levels of migration. However, potential future increases in the number of parents who share physical custody after separation might lead to lower migration levels.

Mating Market and Dynamics of Union Formation

The paper investigates the relationship between structural partner market constraints and the timing and educational sorting of unions in Germany (1985–2018). We integrate the literature on the effect of the reversed gender gap in education on educational assortative mating, with a focus on mating dynamics and the measurement of the partner market over the life course. We concentrate on two particular educational groups, low-educated men and highly educated women, those with worsening mating prospects and more subject to experience hypogamous unions. Our results show that the local education-specific mating squeeze influences union formation, its timing, and educational sorting. Indeed, for the two groups, the increasing supply of highly educated women in the partner market increases the likelihood of remaining single or establishing an hypogamous union, where she is higher educated than he. In line with search theory, we find the effects of the mating squeeze to become particularly visible after people turn 30 years of age. This is true for the risk of remaining single and forming an hypogamous union. We underline the necessity to study assortative mating and union formation from a dynamic perspective, taking into account changing structural conditions during the partner search process.

Sex Differences in Childlessness in Norway: Identification of Underlying Demographic Drivers

In Norway, as in many other rich countries, childlessness is more common among men than women and has also increased more among men. Over the last 15 years, the gap in childlessness between 45-year-old women and men has widened from 5.8 to 10.2 percentage points, according to national register data. In the Norwegian-born subgroup, the gap has increased by 2.4 percentage points, from 5.8 to 8.2. The goal of the study was to identify the demographic drivers of this development, using a quite simple, but original, decomposition approach. The components reflect changes in relative cohort sizes, whether the child has one native and one immigrant parent, whether the father was older than 45, and whether one of the parents already had a child, no longer lived in Norway at age 45, or was unidentified. It was found that the modestly increasing sex gap in childlessness among the Norwegian-born is largely linked to changes in cohort sizes, i.e. fertility trends. Changes in re-partnership have actually contributed weakly in the opposite direction: It has become more common especially among men to have the first child with a partner who already had a child, and thus not contribute to bringing also that person out of childlessness. The importance of the various components is different for immigrants, among whom the sex gap in childlessness has increased particularly much. This development may also reflect that especially male immigrants perhaps have children in the home country who are not included in the Norwegian register.

Socio-Economic Differences in the Prevalence of Single Motherhood in North America and Europe

The study focuses on understanding the association between parental socio-economic status (SES) and the likelihood of women experiencing a first birth while single, and identifying societal factors that influence this association in 18 North American and European societies. Previous research has shown that single motherhood occurs disproportionately among those from with lower a lower parental SES. The study assesses whether this is caused by parental SES differences in the risk of single women experiencing a first conception leading to a live birth or by parental SES differences in how likely women are to enter a union during pregnancy. Additionally, an assessment is made of whether cross-national differences in these associations can be explained by a country’s access to family planning, norms regarding family formation, and economic inequality. Across countries, a negative gradient of parental SES was found on the likelihood of single women to experience a first pregnancy. The negative gradient was stronger in countries with better access to family planning. In some countries, the negative gradient of parental SES was aggravated during pregnancy because women from lower parental SES were less likely to enter a union. This was mostly found in societies with less conservative norms regarding marriage. The results suggest that certain developments in Western societies may increase socio-economic differentials in family demography.