You can’t trust an angry group- asymmetric evaluations of angry and surprised rhetoric affect confidence in trending opinions

Communication in groups allows social learners to influence one another and change their beliefs over time. Though some of the same heuristics that guide learners’ trust in individual informants can be applied to groups, variation in how individual beliefs are aggregated into a collective judgement can radically alter the accuracy of collective judgement. How do observers evaluate collective judgements? We present two experiments testing the impact of affective signals on observer trust. In each experiment, one faction “converts” group members from an opposing faction, or is converted by them. When the focal faction is surprised at the opposing view, observer trust in the focal faction’s belief rises or falls as consensus increases or decreases. When the focal faction is angry, observer trust falls when consensus decreases, but does not rise even when the “consensus” approaches unanimity. Affective signals in group interactions may help naive learners evaluate collective accuracy.

Berichus and the Evidence for Aspar’s Political Power and Aims in the Last Years of Theodosius II’s Reign

The article examines Priscus’s account of the conflict that emerged between the leader of the Roman embassy, Maximinus, and the Hunnic envoy, Berichus. The barbarian got offended by the remarks concerning the lack of competence and influence of Aspar and Areobindus. A detailed analysis of this short passage – entailing the persona of Berichus himself, the reasons for his anger, and the possible explanations for Maximinus’s behaviour – can provide us with evidence regarding the political position of Aspar in the last years of the reign of Theodosius II. Most scholars use this example to illustrate Aspar’s falling out of favour and power; it is more likely, however, that the situation was actually more complex. The political struggle between Chrysaphius, a proponent of the policy of reconciliation with the Huns, and Zeno, the opponent of such policies, makes it far more probable that the government feared that their diplomatic effort might be hijacked by the opposing faction. Therefore, it was political differences – and not the failures in the war of 447 – that were the reason for Aspar’s falling out with the emperor. This would also mean that Zeno and Aspar shared similar views on how to solve the Hunnic problem, which would be the basis for their cooperation, resulting in the overthrowing of Chrysaphius and the crowning of Marcian in 450.

“How Does Heaven Come to Speak?”

After the death of emperor Zhenzong, scholar-officials challenged the legitimacy of the Heavenly Text and the cult of the Sacred Ancestor. They argued that because there was no way that Heaven could speak through the proposed revealed text, the Heavenly Text was fabricated. A consensus was reached between Emperor Renzong and officials that Confucian canonical rituals would be the sole orthopraxis of imperial rituals, and the cult of the Sacred Ancestor would be reduced to a private ritual of the royal family. Later, those who advocated increasing the power of the bureaucracy at the expense of the monarch took the lead in deploying the ancient ritual laws as a means to compel compliance by the emperor and also to attack officials of the opposing faction. As “three-year mourning” became a legal obligation for all civil officers, many politically charged allegations were made, which in turn further stimulated the study of the canonical rituals.

The Literary Personality of José María Roa Bárcena

Students of mexican culture have always been interested in the determined political conservatism of José María Roa Bárcena. He has been so definitely associated with the conservative-classic side of Mexican politics and literary expression that it is as surprising to find elements of romanticism in the writings of Roa Bárcena as it is to find poetry of a classical nature written by Ignacio Ramírez. The fact is that although these two men worked toward opposite goals with astonishing consistency, neither was immune to the influence of the opposing faction. For this reason, both men reflect their times, though Roa did so in a much quieter way than did the flamboyant Ramírez.