Northern Hemisphere mid-winter vortex-displacement and vortex-split stratospheric sudden warmings: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known to force extratropical weather days to weeks following an MJO event through excitation of stationary Rossby waves, also referred to as tropical–extratropical teleconnections. Prior research has demonstrated that this tropically forced midlatitude response leads to increased prediction skill on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. Furthermore, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has been shown to possibly alter these teleconnections through modulation of the MJO itself and the atmospheric basic state upon which the Rossby waves propagate. This implies that the MJO–QBO relationship may affect midlatitude circulation prediction skill on S2S timescales. In this study, we quantify midlatitude circulation sensitivity and prediction skill following active MJOs and QBOs across the Northern Hemisphere on S2S timescales through an examination of the 500 hPa geopotential height field. First, a comparison of the spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere sensitivity to the MJO during different QBO phases is performed for European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) hindcasts. Secondly, differences in prediction skill in ECMWF and NCEP hindcasts are quantified following MJO–QBO activity. In both hindcast systems, we find that regions across the Pacific, North America, and the Atlantic demonstrate an enhanced MJO impact on prediction skill during strong QBO periods with lead times of 1–4 weeks compared to MJO events during neutral QBO periods.

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Subseasonal Midlatitude Prediction Skill Following QBO-MJO Activity

10.5194/wcd-2019-13 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Kirsten J. Mayer ◽

Elizabeth A. Barnes

Keyword(s):

Spatial Distribution ◽

North America ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Rossby Waves ◽

Prediction Skill ◽

Height Field ◽

Madden Julian Oscillation ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

The Pacific ◽

Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known to force extratropical weather days-to-weeks following an MJO event through excitation of stationary Rossby waves, tropical-extratropical teleconnections. Prior research has demonstrated that this tropically forced midlatitude response leads to increased prediction skill on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. Furthermore, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has been shown to possibly alter these teleconnections through modulation of the MJO itself and the atmospheric basic state upon which the Rossby waves propagate. This implies that the MJO-QBO relationship may affect midlatitude circulation prediction skill on S2S timescales. In this study, we quantify midlatitude circulation sensitivity and prediction skill following active MJOs and QBOs across the Northern Hemisphere on S2S timescales through an examination of the 500 hPa geopotential height field. First, a comparison of the spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere sensitivity to the MJO during different QBO phases is performed for ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF and NCEP hindcasts. Secondly, differences in prediction skill in ECMWF and NCEP hindcasts are quantified following MJO-QBO activity. We find that regions across the Pacific, North America and the Atlantic exhibit increased prediction skill following MJO-QBO activity, but these regions are not always collocated with the locations most sensitive to the MJO under a particular QBO state. Both hindcast systems demonstrate enhanced prediction skill 7–14 days following active MJO events during strong QBO periods compared to MJO events during neutral QBO periods.

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Solar and QBO Influences on the Timing of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/jas-3297.1 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 61 (23) ◽

pp. 2777-2796 ◽

Cited By ~ 104

Author(s):

Lesley J. Gray ◽

Simon Crooks ◽

Charlotte Pascoe ◽

Sarah Sparrow ◽

Michael Palmer

Keyword(s):

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Zonal Wind ◽

Polar Vortex ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

Model Experiments ◽

Zonal Winds ◽

Stratospheric Sudden Warmings ◽

Hemisphere Winter ◽

Biennial Oscillation ◽

Northern Hemisphere Winter

Abstract The interaction of the 11-yr solar cycle (SC) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and their influence on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar vortex are studied using idealized model experiments and ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). In the model experiments, the sensitivity of the NH polar vortex to imposed easterlies at equatorial/subtropical latitudes over various height ranges is tested to explore the possible influence from zonal wind anomalies associated with the QBO and the 11-yr SC in those regions. The experiments show that the timing of the modeled stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) is sensitive to the imposed easterlies at the equator/subtropics. When easterlies are imposed in the equatorial or subtropical upper stratosphere, the onset of the SSWs is earlier. A mechanism is proposed in which zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial/subtropical upper stratosphere associated with the QBO and 11-yr SC either reinforce each other or cancel each other out. When they reinforce, as in Smin–QBO-east (Smin/E) and Smax–QBO-west (Smax/W), it is suggested that the resulting anomaly is large enough to influence the development of the Aleutian high and hence the time of onset of the SSWs. Although highly speculative, this mechanism may help to understand the puzzling observations that major warmings often occur in Smax/W years even though there is no strong waveguide provided by the QBO winds in the lower equatorial stratosphere. The ERA-40 data are used to investigate the QBO and solar signals and to determine whether the observations support the proposed mechanism. Composites of ERA-40 zonally averaged zonal winds based on the QBO (E/W), the SC (min/max), and both (Smin/E, Smin/W, Smax/E, Smax/W) are examined, with emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere winter vortex evolution. The major findings are that QBO/E years are more disturbed than QBO/W years, primarily during early winter. Sudden warmings in Smax years tend to occur later than in Smin years. Midwinter warmings are more likely during Smin/E and Smax/W years, although the latter result is only barely statistically significant at the 75% level. The data show some support for the proposed mechanism, but many more years are required before it can be fully tested.

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Quasi-biennial oscillation disrupted by abnormal Southern Hemisphere stratosphere

10.21203/rs.3.rs-86860/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

James Anstey ◽

Tim Banyard ◽

Neal Butchart ◽

Lawrence Coy ◽

Paul Newman ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Southern Hemisphere ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Boreal Winter ◽

Lead Times ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

Reliable Source ◽

Biennial Oscillation ◽

Wave Momentum

Abstract The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a repeating cycle of tropical stratosphere winds reversing direction from eastward to westward roughly every 14 months. Discovered independently by British and American scientists the QBO continued uninterrupted for 27 cycles from 1953 until February 2016 when a westward jet unexpectedly formed in the lower stratosphere during the eastward phase. This disruption is attributed to unusually high wave-momentum fluxes from the Northern Hemisphere. A second, similar, QBO disruption occurred during the 2019/2020 northern winter though wave fluxes from the Northern Hemisphere were weak. Here we show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was stronger than that seen in 2016 and resulted from horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere during abnormal winter conditions. In both disruptions the normal downward progression of the QBO halts and the eastward shear zone above the disruption moves upward assisted by stronger tropical upwelling during the boreal winter. The predictable signal associated with the QBO's quasi-regular phase progression is permanently lost during disruptions and the oscillation reemerges after a few months significantly shifted in phase from what would be expected if the phase had progressed uninterrupted. We infer from an increased wave-momentum flux into equatorial latitudes seen in model climate projections supporting the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment that disruptions to the QBO are likely to be more common in future. Consequently, we anticipate that in future the QBO will be a less reliable source of predictability on lead times extending out to several years than it currently is.

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Influence of the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Madden–Julian Oscillation during Austral Summer

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/jas-d-16-0205.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 74 (4) ◽

pp. 1105-1125 ◽

Cited By ~ 44

Author(s):

Eriko Nishimoto ◽

Shigeo Yoden

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

Austral Summer ◽

Horizontal Wind ◽

Convective System ◽

Madden Julian Oscillation ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

Enso Events ◽

Convective Region ◽

Biennial Oscillation

Abstract Influence of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and its statistical significance are examined for austral summer (DJF) in neutral ENSO events during 1979–2013. The amplitude of the OLR-based MJO index (OMI) is typically larger in the easterly phase of the QBO at 50 hPa (E-QBO phase) than in the westerly (W-QBO) phase. Daily composite analyses are performed by focusing on phase 4 of the OMI, when the active convective system is located over the eastern Indian Ocean through the Maritime Continent. The composite OLR anomaly shows a larger negative value and slower eastward propagation with a prolonged period of active convection in the E-QBO phase than in the W-QBO phase. Statistically significant differences of the MJO activities between the QBO phases also exist with dynamical consistency in the divergence of horizontal wind, the vertical wind, the moisture, the precipitation, and the 100-hPa temperature. A conditional sampling analysis is also performed by focusing on the most active convective region for each day, irrespective of the MJO amplitude and phase. Composite vertical profiles of the conditionally sampled data over the most active convective region reveal lower temperature and static stability around the tropopause in the E-QBO phase than in the W-QBO phase, which indicates more favorable conditions for developing deep convection. This feature is more prominent and extends into lower levels in the upper troposphere over the most active convective region than other tropical regions. Composite longitude–height sections show similar features of the large-scale convective system associated with the MJO, including a vertically propagating Kelvin response.

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On the emerging relationship between the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial oscillation and the Madden-Julian oscillation

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-019-40034-6 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

P. Klotzbach ◽

S. Abhik ◽

H. H. Hendon ◽

M. Bell ◽

C. Lucas ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Madden Julian Oscillation ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

Biennial Oscillation

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Stratospheric Bimodality: Can the Equatorial QBO Explain the Regime Behavior of the NH Winter Vortex?

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2010jcli3495.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 23 (14) ◽

pp. 3953-3966 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Bo Christiansen

Keyword(s):

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Phase Locking ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

Bimodal Distribution ◽

Careful Consideration ◽

Weak State ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

General Picture ◽

Hemisphere Winter ◽

Biennial Oscillation

Abstract The Northern Hemisphere extended winter mean stratospheric vortex alternates between a strong and a weak state, which is manifested in a statistically significant bimodal distribution. In the end of the 1970s a regime change took place, increasing the frequency of the strong phase relative to the weak phase. This paper investigates the connection between the regime behavior of the vortex and the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in three different datasets. Although there are some differences between the datasets, they agree regarding the general picture. It is found that stratospheric equatorial wind between 70 and 8 hPa shows a bimodal structure in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Such bimodality is nontrivial as it requires only weak variability in the amplitude. Unimodality is found above 8 hPa, where the semiannual oscillation dominates. A strong coincidence is found between strong (weak) vortex winters and winter in the westerly (easterly) QBO regime. Furthermore, the change of the vortex in the late 1970s can be related to a change in the QBO from a period with strong bimodality to a period with weak bimodality. Careful consideration of the statistical significance shows that this change in the QBO can be a random process simply related to the annual sampling of the QBO. Finally, previous findings of phase locking between the QBO and the annual cycle are considered; it is shown that the phase locking is related to the seasonal variations in the bimodality of the QBO.

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